Finding No. 5048 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few days via Face-to-Face, Internet and SMS interviewing, July 19-21, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,572 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.
This week’s Morgan Poll is unchanged. The ALP 52.5% would still win election ahead of the L-NP 47.5% on a two-party preferred basis.
The ALP primary vote is 41.5% (down 0.5%), just ahead of the L-NP primary vote at 41% (unchanged).
Among the minor parties Greens support is 9% (up 2%) and support for Independents/ Others is 8.5% (down 1.5%) – including within that support for Katter’s Australian Party of 1% and support for the Palmer United Party of 1%.
For the Poll Nerds! Calculation of Two-Party preferred vote is based on how preferences for minor parties are allocated:
The Morgan Poll allocates preferences of minor party voters based on how electors surveyed say they will vote: ALP (52.5%) cf. L-NP (47.5%). When the Morgan Poll allocates preferences by how Australian electors voted at the last Federal election – the method used by Newspoll and Fairfax Nielsen – the Morgan Poll shows a slightly closer result: ALP (52%, up 0.5%) cf. L-NP (48%, down 0.5%).
Although not everyone votes ‘the card’, how the preferences of minor parties are allocated on Election Day will depend on the ‘deals’ that are done by various parties and the ‘cards’.
If a Federal Election were held today the ALP would win according to this weekend’s multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,572 Australian electors aged 18+. The Morgan Poll surveys a significantly larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has improved in the last week – up 5.5pts to 115 – the highest since November 2012 (116.5). Now 48.5% (up 3.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 33.5% (down 2%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
Analysis by Gender
Analysis by Gender shows Women swinging back to the ALP this week and still clearly favour the ALP (55.5%, up 2.5%) cf. L-NP (44.5%, down 2.5%) on a two party preferred basis. Men are evenly split: ALP 50% (down 1.5%) cf. L-NP 50% (up 1.5%).
Gary Morgan says:
“The Papua New Guinea ‘Solution’ has helped the ALP maintain their winning position and resulted in a 2% increase in support for the Greens.”
Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today — which party would receive your first preference?”
Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).
Contact us to for a free 2-week-trial of our weekly Federal Election Voting Intention report (offer valid till 15 August 2013).
Finding No. 5048 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few days via Face-to-Face, Internet and SMS interviewing, July 19-21, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,572 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.
ANALYSIS BY GENDER
MEN
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
|
|
Multi-Mode
|
|
|
June
28-30, 2013
|
July
5-7, 2013
|
July
12-14, 2013
|
July
19-21, 2013
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
39.5
|
39.5
|
42.5
|
39.5
|
|
L-NP
|
44 (3.5)
|
42.5 (3)
|
42 (3.5)
|
44 (2.5)
|
|
Greens
|
5
|
7
|
5.5
|
7
|
|
Ind. /Other
|
11.5
|
11
|
10
|
9.5
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
|
ALP
|
48.5
|
51.5
|
51.5
|
50
|
|
L-NP
|
51.5
|
48.5
|
48.5
|
50
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
WOMEN
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
|
|
Multi-Mode
|
|
|
June
28-30, 2013
|
July
5-7, 2013
|
July
12-14, 2013
|
July
19-21, 2013
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
39.5
|
43
|
41.5
|
43
|
|
L-NP
|
37 (3.5)
|
36.5 (3)
|
40.5 (2.5)
|
38 (3)
|
|
Greens
|
11
|
10
|
8.5
|
10
|
|
Ind. /Other
|
12.5
|
10.5
|
9.5
|
9
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
|
ALP
|
54
|
57
|
53
|
55.5
|
|
L-NP
|
46
|
43
|
47
|
44.5
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
ANALYSIS BY CITIES/ REGIONS
CAPITAL CITIES
|
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
|
|
|
June
28-30, 2013
|
July
5-7, 2013
|
July
12-14, 2013
|
July
19-21, 2013
|
% Change
this week
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
40
|
42.5
|
42
|
41
|
-1
|
|
L-NP
|
40.5 (0.5)
|
38.5 (1)
|
41.5 (1)
|
41 (1)
|
-0.5
|
|
Greens
|
8.5
|
9.5
|
8
|
10.5
|
+2.5
|
|
Ind. /Other
|
11
|
9.5
|
8.5
|
7.5
|
-1
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
|
|
ALP
|
52
|
55.5
|
52.5
|
53
|
+0.5
|
|
L-NP
|
48
|
44.5
|
47.5
|
47
|
-0.5
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
Sample size
|
2,071
|
2,153
|
2,090
|
2,130
|
|
COUNTRY AREAS
|
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
|
|
|
June
28-30, 2013
|
July
5-7, 2013
|
July
12-14, 2013
|
July
19-21, 2013
|
% Change
this week
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
38
|
40.5
|
42
|
42.5
|
+0.5
|
|
L-NP
|
40.5 (8)
|
41 (6.5)
|
40.5 (6)
|
41 (5)
|
+0.5
|
|
Greens
|
8.5
|
6.5
|
6
|
6.5
|
+0.5
|
|
Ind. /Other
|
13
|
12
|
11.5
|
10.0
|
-1.5
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
|
|
ALP
|
50
|
52.5
|
52
|
52
|
-
|
|
L-NP
|
50
|
47.5
|
48
|
48
|
-
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
Sample size
|
1,349
|
1,357
|
1,341
|
1,442
|
|
ANALYSIS BY STATE
NEW SOUTH WALES
|
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
|
|
|
June
28-30, 2013
|
July
5-7, 2013
|
July
12-14, 2013
|
July
19-21, 2013
|
% Change
this week
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
38.5
|
41.5
|
42.5
|
44
|
+1.5
|
|
L-NP
|
44.5 (6.5)
|
41 (4)
|
42.5 (3.5)
|
39.5 (3.5)
|
-3
|
|
Greens
|
7
|
9
|
5.5
|
7
|
+1.5
|
|
Ind. /Other
|
10
|
8.5
|
9.5
|
9.5
|
-
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
|
|
ALP
|
48.5
|
54.5
|
51.5
|
54
|
+2.5
|
|
L-NP
|
51.5
|
45.5
|
48.5
|
46
|
-2.5
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
Sample size
|
992
|
1,070
|
1,044
|
1,085
|
|
VICTORIA
|
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
|
|
|
June
28-30, 2013
|
July
5-7, 2013
|
July
12-14, 2013
|
July
19-21, 2013
|
% Change
this week
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
43
|
42
|
43.5
|
41.5
|
-2
|
|
L-NP
|
35 (2)
|
38 (2.5)
|
39 (3)
|
39 (2.5)
|
-
|
|
Greens
|
10.5
|
11
|
9.5
|
13
|
+3.5
|
|
Ind. /Other
|
11.5
|
9
|
8
|
6.5
|
-1.5
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
|
|
ALP
|
57.5
|
56.5
|
55.5
|
55
|
-0.5
|
|
L-NP
|
42.5
|
43.5
|
44.5
|
45
|
+0.5
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
Sample size
|
939
|
928
|
881
|
898
|
|
QUEENSLAND
|
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
|
|
|
June
28-30, 2013
|
July
5-7, 2013
|
July
12-14, 2013
|
July
19-21, 2013
|
% Change
this week
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
36
|
46
|
41.5
|
39.5
|
-2
|
|
LNP
|
41.5
|
34
|
41 (1)
|
45 (1.5)
|
+4
|
|
Greens
|
7.5
|
5
|
5.5
|
5.5
|
-
|
|
Ind. /Other
|
15
|
15
|
12
|
10
|
-2
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
|
|
ALP
|
49
|
57
|
50
|
48.5
|
-1.5
|
|
LNP
|
51
|
43
|
50
|
51.5
|
+1.5
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
Sample size
|
608
|
705
|
643
|
705
|
|
WESTERN AUSTRALIA
|
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
|
|
|
June
28-30, 2013
|
July
5-7, 2013
|
July
12-14, 2013
|
July
19-21, 2013
|
% Change
this week
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
33
|
34
|
34
|
31.5
|
-2.5
|
|
L-NP
|
48 (7)
|
49.5 (7)
|
48.5 (7)
|
51 (4)
|
+2.5
|
|
Greens
|
7.5
|
7
|
9
|
9.5
|
+0.5
|
|
Ind. /Other
|
11.5
|
9.5
|
8.5
|
8
|
-0.5
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
|
|
ALP
|
40.5
|
44
|
46
|
40
|
-6
|
|
L-NP
|
59.5
|
56
|
54
|
60
|
+6
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
Sample size
|
322
|
271
|
293
|
334
|
|
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
|
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
|
|
|
June
28-30, 2013
|
July
5-7, 2013
|
July
12-14, 2013
|
July
19-21, 2013
|
% Change
this week
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
38.5
|
33
|
40.5
|
43.5
|
+3
|
|
L-NP
|
41 (0.5)
|
42
|
38.5 (0.5)
|
35.5 (1.5)
|
-3
|
|
Greens
|
10.5
|
8.5
|
9
|
11
|
+2
|
|
Ind. /Other
|
10
|
16.5
|
12
|
10
|
-2
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
|
|
ALP
|
53
|
49.5
|
51.5
|
60.5
|
+9
|
|
L-NP
|
47
|
50.5
|
48.5
|
39.5
|
-9
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
Sample size
|
303
|
274
|
296
|
254
|
|
TASMANIA*
|
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
|
|
|
June
28-30, 2013
|
July
5-7, 2013
|
July
12-14, 2013
|
July
19-21, 2013
|
% Change
this week
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
55
|
40.5
|
46
|
36.5
|
-9.5
|
|
L-NP
|
29.5 (0)
|
42 (1)
|
37 (0)
|
35
|
-2
|
|
Greens
|
9
|
6
|
6
|
10.5
|
+4.5
|
|
Ind. /Other
|
6.5
|
11.5
|
11
|
18
|
+7
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
|
|
ALP
|
67.5
|
52
|
61.5
|
55
|
-6.5
|
|
L-NP
|
32.5
|
48
|
38.5
|
45
|
+6.5
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
Sample size
|
133
|
150
|
151
|
132
|
|
*Please note. The small sample size in Tasmania means the Tasmanian figures should be treated with a degree of caution on their own. The figures are primarily used as part of a larger sample.
ANALYSIS BY AGE
18-24
|
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
|
|
|
June
28-30, 2013
|
July
5-7, 2013
|
July
12-14, 2013
|
July
19-21, 2013
|
% Change
this week
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
38
|
42.5
|
38
|
40
|
+2
|
|
L-NP
|
30.5 (2)
|
26 (2.5)
|
30 (1)
|
35 (2)
|
+5
|
|
Greens
|
11
|
15
|
13
|
16
|
+3
|
|
Ind. /Other
|
20.5
|
16.5
|
19
|
9
|
-10
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
|
|
ALP
|
59.5
|
65
|
59.5
|
57
|
-2.5
|
|
L-NP
|
40.5
|
35
|
40.5
|
43
|
+2.5
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
Sample size
|
265
|
226
|
240
|
257
|
|
25-34
|
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
|
|
|
June
28-30, 2013
|
July
5-7, 2013
|
July
12-14, 2013
|
July
19-21, 2013
|
% Change
this week
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
40
|
46.5
|
45.5
|
44
|
-1.5
|
|
L-NP
|
35 (2)
|
31.5 (2)
|
34.5 (2)
|
32.5 (1.5)
|
-2
|
|
Greens
|
13
|
10
|
11.5
|
13.5
|
+2
|
|
Ind. /Other
|
12
|
12
|
8.5
|
10
|
+1.5
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
|
|
ALP
|
55
|
62
|
58.5
|
59
|
+0.5
|
|
L-NP
|
45
|
38
|
41.5
|
41
|
-0.5
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
Sample size
|
506
|
485
|
481
|
491
|
|
35-49
|
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
|
|
|
June
28-30, 2013
|
July
5-7, 2013
|
July
12-14, 2013
|
July
19-21, 2013
|
% Change
this week
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
42
|
43
|
44.5
|
41
|
-3.5
|
|
L-NP
|
36(2)
|
37.5 (2)
|
39 (2.5)
|
40 (2.5)
|
+1
|
|
Greens
|
9.5
|
9.5
|
6.5
|
9
|
+2.5
|
|
Ind. /Other
|
12.5
|
10
|
10
|
10
|
-
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
|
|
ALP
|
53.5
|
56.5
|
55
|
53
|
-2
|
|
L-NP
|
46.5
|
43.5
|
45
|
47
|
+2
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
Sample size
|
908
|
912
|
892
|
879
|
|
50-64
|
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
|
|
|
June
28-30, 2013
|
July
5-7, 2013
|
July
12-14, 2013
|
July
19-21, 2013
|
% Change
this week
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
39
|
40.5
|
40
|
42
|
+2
|
|
L-NP
|
44.5 (4)
|
42.5 (4)
|
45 (3)
|
42 (2.5)
|
-3
|
|
Greens
|
7
|
7.5
|
6
|
7.5
|
+1.5
|
|
Ind. /Other
|
9.5
|
9.5
|
9
|
8.5
|
-0.5
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
|
|
ALP
|
48.5
|
51
|
49.5
|
52
|
+2.5
|
|
L-NP
|
51.5
|
49
|
50.5
|
48
|
-2.5
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
Sample size
|
1,013
|
1,104
|
1,015
|
1,143
|
|
65+
|
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
|
|
|
June
28-30, 2013
|
July
5-7, 2013
|
July
12-14, 2013
|
July
19-21, 2013
|
% Change
this week
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
37
|
36.5
|
40
|
39
|
-1
|
|
L-NP
|
51 (6.5)
|
51 (3.5)
|
49.5 (4.5)
|
49.5 (3.5)
|
-
|
|
Greens
|
3.5
|
3.5
|
3.5
|
4.5
|
+1
|
|
Ind. /Other
|
8.5
|
9
|
7
|
7
|
-
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
|
|
ALP
|
45.5
|
44.5
|
44.5
|
47
|
+2.5
|
|
L-NP
|
54.5
|
55.5
|
55.5
|
53
|
-2.5
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
Sample size
|
746
|
794
|
803
|
802
|
|
TOTAL
|
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
|
|
|
June
28-30, 2013
|
July
5-7, 2013
|
July
12-14, 2013
|
July
19-21, 2013
|
% Change
this week
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
39.5
|
41.5
|
42
|
41.5
|
-0.5
|
|
L-NP
|
40.5 (3.5)
|
39.5 (3)
|
41 (3)
|
41 (2.5)
|
-
|
|
Greens
|
8.5
|
8.5
|
7
|
9
|
+2
|
|
Ind. /Other
|
11.5
|
10.5
|
10
|
8.5
|
-1.5
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
|
|
ALP
|
51.5
|
54.5
|
52.5
|
52.5
|
-
|
|
L-NP
|
48.5
|
45.5
|
47.5
|
47.5
|
-
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
|
Sample size
|
3,438
|
3,521
|
3,431
|
3,572
|
|
For further information:
|
Contact
|
Office
|
Mobile
|
|
Gary Morgan:
|
+61 3 9224 5213
|
+61 411 129 094
|
|
Michele Levine:
|
+61 3 9224 5215
|
+61 411 129 093
|
Data Tables
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size
|
Percentage Estimate
|
|
40%-60%
|
25% or 75%
|
10% or 90%
|
5% or 95%
|
|
500
|
±4.5
|
±3.9
|
±2.7
|
±1.9
|
|
1,000
|
±3.2
|
±2.7
|
±1.9
|
±1.4
|
|
1,500
|
±2.6
|
±2.2
|
±1.5
|
±1.1
|
|
2,000
|
±2.2
|
±1.9
|
±1.3
|
±1.0
|