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Rudd now has ALP in prime position to win Federal Election as Labor gains again. ALP 54.5% (up 3%) cf. L-NP 45.5% (down 3%).

Finding No. 5018 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few days via Face-to-Face, Internet and SMS interviewing, July 5-7, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,521 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1.0% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.

This week’s Morgan Poll, the third since Kevin Rudd became Prime Minister, shows another significant swing to the ALP. The ALP 54.5% (up 3% since last week’s multi-mode Morgan Poll of June 28-30, 2013) is now further ahead of the L-NP 45.5% (down 3%) on a two-party preferred basis.

The ALP primary vote is 41.5% (up 2%), ahead of the L-NP primary vote at 39.5% (down 1%).

Among the minor parties Greens support is 8.5% (unchanged) and support for Independents/ Others is 10.5% (down 1%) – including within that support for Katter’s Australian Party of 1.5% and support for the Palmer United Party of 1.5%.

If a Federal Election were held today the ALP would win comfortably according to this weekend’s multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,521 Australian electors aged 18+.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has improved slightly – up 1pt to 107 – the highest since mid-March 2013. Now 43% (down 0.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 36% (down 1.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows both genders again swinging towards the ALP after Rudd’s return. Women now clearly favour the ALP (57%, up 3%) cf. L-NP (43%, down 3%) on a two party preferred basis. Even men now favour the ALP (51.5%, up 3%) cf. L-NP (48.5%, down 3%).

Gary Morgan says:

“It’s believable that the ALP would be in front since Kevin Rudd’s shock return as Prime Minister with Rudd’s successful Indonesian trip tackling the issue of ‘asylum seekers’, outlining his plan to deal with the problems in the NSW branch of the ALP and Tony Abbott’s refusal to debate, leaving Abbott with no opportunity to look like a leader combating Kevin Rudd ‘head-on’. The biggest swings to the ALP have been recorded in Queensland and New South Wales.

“A further boost for the Rudd Government is today’s Roy Morgan employment estimates which show an extra 88,000 jobs created in June, however there are still a significant 2.35 million Australians (18.9%) either unemployed or under-employed.

“Will the ALP vote still be in front whenever the Federal election is held - August or a later date?

“This solely depends on Tony Abbott and his Coalition advisors and whether they understand how to convince the electorate that Australia under their leadership would be a better place. There’s no doubt the ALP is at a level of support that no one would have believed was possible a month ago!”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today — which party would receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Contact us to for a free 2-week-trial of our weekly Federal Election Voting Intention report (offer valid till 15 August 2013).

Finding No. 5018 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few days via Face-to-Face, Internet and SMS interviewing, July 5-7, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,521 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1.0% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.


Men 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

Multi-Mode

Snap SMS (After
Leadership Ballot)

Multi-Mode

 

June
21-23, 2013

June 26,
2013

June
28-30, 2013

July
5-7, 2013

 

%

%

%

%

ALP

28.5

38

39.5

39.5

L-NP

50.5 (3)

45.5 (2)

44 (3.5)

42.5 (3)

Greens

8

6.5

5

7

Ind. /Other

13

10

11.5

11

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

ALP

42

47.5

48.5

51.5

L-NP

58

52.5

51.5

48.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

Women

PRIMARY VOTE

 

Multi-Mode

Snap SMS (After
Leadership Ballot)

Multi-Mode

 

June
21-23, 2013

June 26,
2013

June
28-30, 2013

July
5-7, 2013

 

%

%

%

%

ALP

32.5

38

39.5

43

L-NP

44 (3)

41 (3)

37 (3.5)

36.5 (3)

Greens

10.5

10.5

11

10

Ind. /Other

13

10.5

12.5

10.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

ALP

47

51

54

57

L-NP

53

49

46

43

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093

Morgan Poll Voting Intention - Two-Party Preferred

Roy Morgan GCR


Data Tables


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0