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Rudd now has ALP in prime position to win Federal Election. ALP 51.5% (up 2%) cf. L-NP 48.5% (down 2%).

Finding No. 5010 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few days via Face-to-Face, Internet and SMS interviewing, June 28-30, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,438 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1.5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.

This week’s Morgan Poll, the second since Kevin Rudd became Prime Minister, shows another swing to the ALP. The ALP 51.5% (up 2% since last Wednesday’s special snap SMS Morgan Poll) is now ahead of the L-NP 48.5% (down 2%) on a two-party preferred basis.

The L-NP primary vote is 40.5% (down 2.5%) slightly ahead of the ALP 39.5% (up 1.5%). Among the minor parties Greens support is 8.5% (unchanged) and support for Independents/ Others is 11.5% (up 1%) – including within that support for Katter’s Australian Party of 1.5% and support for the Palmer United Party of 1.5%.

If a Federal Election were held today the result would be a close ALP win according to this weekend’s multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,438 Australian electors aged 18+.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has improved strongly after Rudd’s return – up 12.5pts to 106 – the highest since mid March 2013. Now 43.5% (up 5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 37.5% (down 7.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows both genders again swinging towards the ALP after Rudd’s return. Women now clearly favour the ALP (54%, up 3%) cf. L-NP (46%, down 3%) on a two party preferred basis while men favour the L-NP (51.5%, down 1%) cf. ALP (48.5%, up 1%).

Gary Morgan says:

“The second Morgan Poll since Kevin Rudd’s shock return as ALP leader and Prime Minister shows a further swing to the ALP (51.5%, up 2% since a snap SMS Morgan Poll conducted in the hours after Rudd deposed Julia Gillard as ALP Leader on Wednesday June 26, 2013) cf. L-NP (48.5%, down 2%) on a two-party preferred basis. Rudd’s return has also reduced support for the two minor Queensland-based parties.

“This is the ALP’s largest lead since December 2012 when the ALP (52.5%) cf. L-NP (47.5%) on the eve of Christmas. As Michele Levine said last Friday the ALP’s natural attraction to many women – which was momentarily shaken last Wednesday when Australia’s first female Prime Minister was ‘dumped’ – has now passed and women favour the ALP by a large margin: ALP (54%, up 3%) cf. L-NP (46%, down 3%). In contrast, a majority of men still favour the L-NP (51.5%, down 1%) cf. ALP (48.5%, up 1%).

“Rudd’s return as leader and the immediate improvement in the ALP’s support clearly puts the pressure on Opposition Leader Tony Abbott, to explain the Coalition’s policies better and put a case for why he should be elected at the coming Federal Election. Particularly important will be the Coalition’s Industrial Relations policies and also the Coalition’s plans for getting the Australian economy moving again – both issues referred to by Rudd in his pre-ballot speech.

“The question is will Rudd call an August election and rely on his honeymoon or take longer so as to outline his ‘new’ policies which tackle a ‘failing’ economy – massive real unemployment and under-employment and falling business confidence and consumer confidence – so far ignored by both the Federal Government and the Opposition.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today — which party would receive your first preference?”

Finding No. 5010 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few days via Face-to-Face, Internet and SMS interviewing, June 28-30, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,438 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1.5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.


Men

PRIMARY VOTE

 

Multi-Mode

Snap SMS (After
Leadership Ballot)

Multi-Mode

 

June
14-16, 2013

June
21-23, 2013

June 26,

2013

June
28-30, 2013

 

%

%

%

%

ALP

30.5

28.5

38

39.5

L-NP

47.5 (2.5)

50.5 (3)

45.5 (2)

44 (3.5)

Greens

7.5

8

6.5

5

Ind. /Other

14.5

13

10

11.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

ALP

43.5

42

47.5

48.5

L-NP

56.5

58

52.5

51.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

Women

PRIMARY VOTE

 

Multi-Mode

Snap SMS (After
Leadership Ballot)

Multi-Mode

 

June
14-16, 2013

June
21-23, 2013

June 26,

2013

June
28-30, 2013

 

%

%

%

%

ALP

35

32.5

38

39.5

L-NP

42 (2)

44 (3)

41 (3)

37 (3.5)

Greens

10.5

10.5

10.5

11

Ind. /Other

12.5

13

10.5

12.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

ALP

50

47

51

54

L-NP

50

53

49

46

TOTAL

100

100

100

100


For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093


Data Tables


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0