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L-NP support rises as ALP leadership tensions continue

Finding No. 4990 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few days via Face-to-Face, Internet and SMS interviewing, June 21-23, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,398 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed a low 0.5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.

Last weekend’s Morgan Poll shows support for the L-NP at 55.5%, up 2% in a week (since June 14-16, 2013) cf. ALP 44.5% (down 2%) on a two-party preferred basis according to the multi-mode weekly  Morgan Poll.

The L-NP primary vote is 47% (up 2.5%) well ahead of the ALP 30.5% (down 2.5%). Among the minor parties Greens support is 9% (unchanged) and support for Independents/ Others is 13.5% (unchanged) including within that support for the Palmer United Party (3%) and support for Katter’s Australian Party (2.5%).

If a Federal Election were held today the L-NP would win the election easily according to today’s multi-mode weekly Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention, June 21-23, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,398 Australian electors aged 18+.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen from a record low to 93.5pts (up 4pts) with 38.5% (up 4%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 45% (unchanged) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender this week shows both genders swinging towards the L-NP but with a wide divergence between men and women. Women now favour the L-NP (53%, up 3%) cf. ALP (47%, down 3%) on a two party preferred basis while men strongly favour the L-NP (58%, up 1.5%) cf. ALP (42%, down 1.5%).

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s Morgan Poll shows the L-NP (55.5%, up 2%) re-establishing its large election-winning lead over the ALP (44.5%, down 2%) on a two-party preferred basis as ALP leadership speculation comes to a head this week. If Kevin Rudd were to return as Prime Minister, Rudd will need to force a leadership ballot this week as it is the last time all Federal Labor MPs will be in Canberra to take a vote.

“Australians also appear to have quickly moved on from last week’s controversy caused by Perth radio presenter Howard Sattler and his intemperate remarks to the Prime Minister about her partner’s sexuality. Last week’s Morgan Poll appeared to show Sattler’s remarks caused a boost to the ALP’s standing amongst women, however this week’s Morgan Poll shows a return to the results of a fortnight ago with women now favouring the L-NP (53%, up3%) cf. ALP (47%, down 3%) on a two-party preferred basis.

“A special Roy Morgan qualitative poll released last week shows Australian electors want the Federal Government to do more in are the areas of Education (12%), Taxation (11%), Improving the Quality of Government and Politicians (10%) and Social welfare and the Aged (9%).

 “However, despite today’s Morgan Poll showing a drop in support for the Government, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (93.5pts, up 4pts) has improved from its record low last week with 38.5% (up 4%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 45% (unchanged) that say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today — which party would receive your first preference?”

Finding No. 4990 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few days via Face-to-Face, Internet and SMS interviewing, June 21-23, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,398 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed a low 0.5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.

Morgan Poll - June 24, 2013


Roy Morgan GCR


Men 

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

Multi-Mode

 

May 31-
June 2, 2013

June
7-10, 2013

June
14-16, 2013

June
21-23, 2013

 

%

%

%

%

ALP

29.5

29.5

30.5

28.5

L-NP

47.5 (2.5)

48 (2)

47.5 (2.5)

50.5 (3)

Greens

8

8.5

7.5

8

Ind. /Other

15

14

14.5

13

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

ALP

42

41.5

43.5

42

L-NP

58

58.5

56.5

58

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

Women

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

Multi-Mode

 

May 31-
June 2, 2013

June
7-10, 2013

June
14-16, 2013

June
21-23, 2013

 

%

%

%

%

ALP

33.5

32.5

35

32.5

L-NP

43.5(3)

44.5 (3)

42 (2)

44 (3)

Greens

11

10.5

10.5

10.5

Ind. /Other

12

12.5

12.5

13

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

ALP

47.5

46

50

47

L-NP

52.5

54

50

53

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093


Data Tables


This infographic was developed taking electors responses when they were asked: "Why, in particular, would you vote that way if a Federal election were being held today?"

"Why, in particular, would you vote that way if a Federal election were being held today?"


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0