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Queensland swings to ALP after Rudd returns, Victoria unchanged after Gillard dumping. Under 50s swing strongly to ALP, older Australians unmoved.

Finding No. 5000 - This special snap SMS Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted this evening via SMS interviewing after the result of the ALP leadership ballot was announced, 8pm June 26, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,530 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed a low 0.5% did not name a party.

A special snap SMS Morgan Poll (2,530 Australian electors aged 18+) conducted after last night’s ALP leadership ballot showed a large nation-wide swing to the ALP 49.5% (up 5%) since last weekend’s multi-mode Morgan Poll, now just behind the L-NP 50.5% (down 5%) on a two-party preferred basis after former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd was returned to the leadership of the ALP after winning a leadership ballot against outgoing Prime Minister Julia Gillard 57-45.

The L-NP primary vote is 43% (down 4%) still clearly ahead of the ALP 38% (up 7.5%). Among the minor parties Greens support is 8.5% (down 0.5%) and support for Independents/ Others is 10.5% (down 3%).

If a Federal Election were held today the result would be too close to call according to last night’s special snap SMS Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,530 Australian electors aged 18+.

Analysis by State

Special analysis of last night’s snap SMS Morgan Poll by State shows big swings to the ALP in Rudd’s home State of Queensland (ALP 51.5%, up 10.5% cf. L-NP 48.5%, down 10.5%) and in the strong mining States of Western Australia (ALP 41%, up 7% cf. LNP 59%, down 7%) and South Australia (ALP 50%, up 7% cf. L-NP 50%, down 7%).

However, in former Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s home State of Victoria, there was little change with the L-NP maintaining a slender lead (L-NP 50.5%, unchanged cf. ALP 49.5%, unchanged).

There were also swings to the ALP in New South Wales (ALP 47.5%, up 3.5% cf. L-NP 52.5%, down 3.5%) and Tasmania (ALP 63%, up 4% cf. L-NP 37%, down 4%).

Analysis by Age

In depth analysis by age-group shows that Rudd’s return has proved a ‘hit’ with the Under 50s – all swinging strongly to the ALP in last night’s special snap SMS Morgan Poll.

  • 18-24yrs: ALP (59.5%, up 7%) cf. L-NP (40.5%, down 7%);

  • 25-34yrs: ALP (58.5%, up 9%) cf. L-NP (41.5%, down 9%);

  • 35-49yrs: ALP (50%, up 6%) cf. L-NP (50%, down 6%);

  • 50-64yrs: L-NP (54.5%, down 0.5%) cf. ALP (45.5%, up 0.5%);

  • 65+yrs: L-NP (63%, unchanged) cf. ALP (37%, unchanged).

Gary Morgan says:

“A special snap SMS Morgan Poll conducted immediately after the results of last night’s ALP leadership ballot showed the ALP (49.5%, up 5%) now almost level with the L-NP (50.5%, down 5%) on a two-party preferred basis after the return of Kevin Rudd as the ALP leader.

“However, special analysis shows that the swing to the ALP was heavily concentrated in Rudd’s home State of Queensland (ALP 51.5%, up 10.5% cf. L-NP 48.5%, down 10.5%) and the other strong mining States of Western Australia (ALP 41%, up 7% cf. L-NP 59%, down 7%) and South Australia (ALP 50%, up 7% cf. L-NP 50%, down 7%).

“In contrast, former Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s home State of Victoria was unmoved by her removal with the L-NP 50.5% (unchanged) maintaining a slender lead over the ALP 49.5% (unchanged) on a two-party preferred basis.

“The analysis by age group also shows Australians under 50 years old swinging heavily to the ALP after Rudd’s return as leader, whilst those over 50 years old are largely unmoved. 25-34yr olds, young families, have swung most heavily to the ALP (58.5%, up 9%) cf. L-NP (41.5%, down 9%), just ahead of 18-24yr olds: ALP (59.5%, up 7%) cf. L-NP (40.5%, down 7%) and 35-49yr olds: ALP (50%, up 6%) cf. L-NP (50%, down 6%).

“However, 50-64yr olds are barely changed on a two-party preferred basis: L-NP (54.5%, down 0.5%) cf. ALP (45.5%, up 0.5%) and 65+ yr olds are unchanged: L-NP (63%, unchanged) cf. ALP (37%, unchanged).

A special qualitative Morgan Poll released last week shows the areas both major parties need to concentrate on if they are to convince electors that they are the party to vote for in this year’s Federal Election – Social and Welfare issues like Education and Healthcare, and Economic & Financial issues including Taxation, Reducing the cost of living, the Australian economy and Unemployment.

“Clearly the results of the snap SMS Morgan Poll show that Rudd’s return has re-invigorated the ALP ahead of this year’s Federal Election – which may be called early now – and provided a new challenge for Opposition Leader Tony Abbott to confront. The support the L-NP had gained because electors had lost faith in Julia Gillard has returned to the ALP and young people have emerged as a key area the Opposition must target to regain the initiative now held by Prime Minister Rudd.”

 

Electors were asked: “Now that Kevin Rudd is Leader of the ALP which party would receive your FIRST preference?”

Finding No. 5000 - This special snap SMS Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted this evening via SMS interviewing after the result of the ALP leadership ballot was announced, 8pm June 26, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,530 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed a low 0.5% did not name a party.

Click here to browse our Voter Profiles by electorate or weekly Federal Voting Intention Reports with latest demographic trends.


ANALYSIS BY AGE

18-24

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

Multi-Mode

Snap SMS (After
Leadership Ballot)

 

 

June
21-23, 2013

June 26,
2013

% Change (After
Leadership Ballot)

 

%

%

%

ALP

35

42.5

+7.5

L-NP

37 (1.5)

28 (2.5)

-9.0

Greens

12.5

13

+0.5

Ind. /Other

15.5

16.5

+1.0

TOTAL

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

52.5

59.5

+7.0

L-NP

47.5

40.5

-7.0

TOTAL

100

100

 

Snap SMS Poll sample size: 176. 

25-34

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

Multi-Mode

Snap SMS (After
Leadership Ballot)

 

 

June
21-23, 2013

June 26,
2013

% Change (After
Leadership Ballot)

 

%

%

%

ALP

32

45.5

+13.5

L-NP

40.5 (3)

34.5 (2.5)

-6.0

Greens

13

12.5

-0.5

Ind. /Other

14.5

7.5

-7.0

TOTAL

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

49.5

58.5

+9.0

L-NP

50.5

41.5

-9.0

TOTAL

100

100

 

Snap SMS Poll sample size: 472.

35-49

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

Multi-Mode

Snap SMS (After
Leadership Ballot)

 

 

June
21-23, 2013

June 26,
2013

% Change (After
Leadership Ballot)

 

%

%

%

ALP

28

40.5

+12.5

L-NP

47.5 (2)

43 (2.5)

-4.5

Greens

10.5

7

-3.5

Ind. /Other

14

9.5

-4.5

TOTAL

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

44

50

+6.0

L-NP

56

50

-6.0

TOTAL

100

100

 

Snap SMS Poll sample size: 802.

50-64

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

Multi-Mode

Snap SMS (After
Leadership Ballot)

 

 

June
21-23, 2013

June 26,
2013

% Change (After
Leadership Ballot)

 

%

%

%

ALP

30.5

35

+4.5

L-NP

47 (3.5)

46.5 (2.5)

-0.5

Greens

9

8

-1.0

Ind. /Other

13.5

10.5

-3.0

TOTAL

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

45

45.5

+0.5

L-NP

55

54.5

-0.5

TOTAL

100

100

 

Snap SMS Poll sample size: 753.

65+

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

Multi-Mode

Snap SMS (After
Leadership Ballot)

 

 

June
21-23, 2013

June 26,
2013

% Change (After
Leadership Ballot)

 

%

%

%

ALP

31

28.5

-2.5

L-NP

57 (5.5)

56.5 (3)

-0.5

Greens

3.5

5.5

+2.0

Ind. /Other

8.5

9.5

+1.0

TOTAL

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

37

37

-

L-NP

63

63

-

TOTAL

100

100

 

Snap SMS Poll sample size: 327.

ANALYSIS BY STATE


NEW SOUTH WALES

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

Multi-Mode

Snap SMS (After
Leadership Ballot)

 

 

June
21-23, 2013

June 26,
2013

% Change (After
Leadership Ballot)

 

%

%

%

ALP

31

37

+6.0

L-NP

49.5 (4.5)

45 (3.5)

-4.5

Greens

8

8

-

Ind. /Other

11.5

10

-1.5

TOTAL

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

44

47.5

+3.5

L-NP

56

52.5

-3.5

TOTAL

100

100

 

Snap SMS Poll sample size: 744.

VICTORIA

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

Multi-Mode

Snap SMS (After
Leadership Ballot)

 

 

June
21-23, 2013

June 26,
2013

% Change (After
Leadership Ballot)

 

%

%

%

ALP

33.5

36

+2.5

L-NP

43 (3.5)

41.5 (1.5)

-1.5

Greens

11.5

11

-0.5

Ind. /Other

12

11.5

-0.5

TOTAL

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

49.5

49.5

-

L-NP

50.5

50.5

-

TOTAL

100

100

 

Snap SMS Poll sample size: 698.

QUEENSLAND

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

Multi-Mode

Snap SMS (After
Leadership Ballot)

 

 

June
21-23, 2013

June 26,
2013

% Change (After
Leadership Ballot)

 

%

%

%

ALP

28

44

+16.0

LNP

47 (2.5)

42.5 (2.5)

-4.5

Greens

7.5

5.5

-2.0

Ind. /Other

17.5

8

-9.5

TOTAL

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

41

51.5

+10.5

LNP

59

48.5

-10.5

TOTAL

100

100

 

Snap SMS Poll sample size: 487.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

Multi-Mode

Snap SMS (After
Leadership Ballot)

 

 

June
21-23, 2013

June 26,
2013

% Change (After
Leadership Ballot)

 

%

%

%

ALP

24

31.5

+7.5

L-NP

54.5 (3)

52.5 (5)

-2.0

Greens

8

8

-

Ind. /Other

13.5

8

-5.5

TOTAL

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

34

41

+7.0

L-NP

66

59

-7.0

TOTAL

100

100

 

Snap SMS Poll sample size: 200.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

Multi-Mode

Snap SMS (After
Leadership Ballot)

 

 

June
21-23, 2013

June 26,
2013

% Change (After
Leadership Ballot)

 

%

%

%

ALP

27.5

36.5

+9.0

L-NP

51 (0.5)

40 (0.5)

-11.0

Greens

11.5

10.5

-1.0

Ind. /Other

10

13

+3.0

TOTAL

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

43

50

+7.0

L-NP

57

50

-7.0

TOTAL

100

100

 

Snap SMS Poll sample size: 200.

TASMANIA

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

Multi-Mode

Snap SMS (After
Leadership Ballot)

 

 

June
21-23, 2013

June 26,
2013

% Change (After
Leadership Ballot)

 

%

%

%

ALP

36.5

52

+15.5

L-NP

33 (1)

29 (0)

-4.0

Greens

9.5

9

-0.5

Ind. /Other

21

10

-11.0

TOTAL

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

59

63

+4.0

L-NP

41

37

-4.0

TOTAL

100

100

 

Snap SMS Poll sample size: 110.


For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093

Snap SMS Morgan Poll shows ALP closing the gap on L-NP

Data Tables


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0