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L-NP 58% (up 3.5%) lead gains strongly over ALP 42% (down 3.5%) Before Government reveals Federal Budget Deficit of $12 Billion

This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few days via Face-to-Face, Internet and SMS interviewing, April 26-28, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,418 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1.5% (unchanged) did not name a party.
Last weekend’s multi-mode Morgan Poll shows support for the L-NP jumping to 58% (up 3.5% since April 18-21, 2013) cf. ALP 42% (down 3.5%) on a two-party preferred basis.

The L-NP primary vote is 48% (up 4%) easily ahead of the ALP 30.5% (down 2%). Among the minor parties Greens support is 11% (up 0.5%) and Independents/ Others are 10.5% (down 2.5%).

If a Federal Election were held today the L-NP would win the election easily according to today’s multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention conducted over the last few days, April 26-28, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,418 Australian electors aged 18+.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is steady at 105.5pts (unchanged in a week) with 41.5% (down 1%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 36% (down 1%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s Morgan Poll shows a strong improvement for the Opposition with the L-NP (58%, up 3.5%) substantially increasing its lead over the ALP (42%, down 3.5%) on the weekend before Prime Minister Julia Gillard announced a Federal Budget ‘blowout’ to a $12 billion deficit, despite promising for years that the 2012/13 Federal Budget would be in surplus. Today’s Morgan Poll is a similar result to the Morgan Poll at the start of April which showed the L-NP (59%) cf. ALP (41%) on a two-party preferred basis.

“The large Federal Budget deficit makes it imperative that the RBA cuts Australian interest rates at its May meeting next week by at least 0.5% to stimulate the Australian economy which will  encourage businesses to make new investments and begin hiring again — the latest Roy Morgan March unemployment estimate shows a very high 2.31 million (18.2%) Australians are either unemployed or under-employed.

“A special Morgan Poll question asked online last week of 1,142 respondents shows that although a majority of Australian electors (56%) approve of the Prime Minister’s Education Plan compared to 32% that disapprove and 12% that can’t say, when asked ‘What do you believe is the best way to improve our schools’ — 44% said ‘Higher teaching standards’; 22% ‘Increased funding’; 19.5% ‘Smaller Education bureaucracy’; 9% ‘Greater autonomy for school principals’ and 5.5% can’t say.

“These results show that although Education is traditionally seen as a ‘Labor issue’ and most Australians do support higher funding for our schools, more Australians believe ‘higher teaching standards’  are the best way to improve our schools and merely increasing funding for Education (as people would expect of a Labor Government) is not, by itself, a proven vote-winner for the Government.”


Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today — which party would receive your first preference?”

Finding No. 4889 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few days via Face-to-Face, Internet and SMS interviewing, April 26-28, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,418 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1.5% (unchanged) did not name a party.

Men

PRIMARY VOTE
  Multi-mode*
  April
4-7
April
11-14
April
18-21
April
26-28
 

%

%

%

%

ALP 29 29.5 30.5 29
L-NP 49.5 (3.5) 44 (2.5) 48.5 (2) 50.5
Greens 8.5 9 9.5 9.5
Ind/ Others 13 10.5 11.5 11
TOTAL

100

100

100

100

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
  % % % %
ALP 41.5 41.5 42.5 39.5
L-NP 58.5 58.5 57.5 60.5
TOTAL

100

100

100

100

Women

PRIMARY VOTE
  Multi-mode*
  April
4-7
April
11-14
April
18-21
April
26-28
 

%

%

%

%

ALP 33 34 34.5 31.5
L-NP 43.5 (3.5) 44 (2.5) 40 (3) 45 (3.5)
Greens 11 12 12 12.5
Ind/ Others 12.5 10 13.5 11
TOTAL 100 100 100 100
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
% % % %
ALP 45.5 47.5 48.5 44.5
L-NP 54.5 52.5 51.5 55.5
TOTAL

100

100

100

100

Federal Poll

Government Confidence

Data Tables




For further information:


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Gary Morgan:     + 61 3 9224 5213 + 61 411 129 094
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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40%-60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
500 ±4.5 ±3.9 ±2.7 ±1.9
1,000 ±3.2 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.4
1,500 ±2.6 ±2.2 ±1.5 ±1.1
2,000 ±2.2 ±1.9 ±1.3 ±1

Morgan Poll Accuracy - Recent Elections State & Federal (2007 — 2012)

The Morgan Poll has proven to be consistently the most accurate regular poll in recent Australian Elections — including the 2007 Federal Election, 2010 Federal Election, 2010 Victorian State Election & 2012 Queensland State Election.

Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.

The following included comment says it all: "I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any 'real' figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%). Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from 'reality' (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll.  On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is 'better' than Morgan's."

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

The Roy Morgan Research Centre conducts the Morgan Poll in Australia and New Zealand and is the Gallup International Association Member.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.