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National Party 47% (up 0.5%) now lead Labour/ Greens 42.5% (down 2%) Biggest lead since late February

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 956 electors from July 1-14, 2013. Of all electors surveyed 4% (down 2%) didn’t name a party.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a small rise in support for Prime Minister John Key’s National Party to 47% (up 0.5% since June 17-30, 2013). Support for Key’s Coalition partners has changed little with the Maori Party 2% (up 0.5%), ACT NZ 0.5% (up 0.5%) and United Future 0% (down 0.5%).

Support for Labour is 31% (down 0.5%); Greens are 11.5% (down 1.5%), New Zealand First 4.5% (up 1%), Mana Party 1.5% (up 1%), Conservative Party of NZ 1.5% (down 0.5%) and Others 0.5% (down 0.5%).

If a National Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows it would be too close to call.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up 3.5pts to 128.5 (the highest since January 16-29, 2012) with 58% (up 1%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 29.5% (down 2.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll contains good news for governing National (47%, up 0.5%) now at its furthest ahead of a potential Labour/ Greens Coalition (42.5%, down 2%) since late February. The rise in support for National comes as Prime Minister John Key has thrown the Government’s support behind a second Waitemata Harbour Crossing in Auckland and other major Auckland transport projects – which are estimated to cost up to $10 billion.

“In addition, after the resignation of Maori Party co-leader Pita Sharples in the wake of a disappointing by-election result in the Maori seat of Ikaroa-Rawhiti, Te Ururoa Flavell has been elected unopposed as the new Maori Party co-leader. Maori Party support increased to 2% (up 0.5%) in the wake of Mr. Flavell’s election.

“Mana Party (1.5%, up 1%) Leader Hone Harawira had once again raised the possibility of a merger between the Mana Party and Maori Party in the wake of Sharples’ resignation, if the Maori Party ended its support of National. However, Te Ururoa Flavell’s election as the new Maori Party co-leader means this is unlikely with the two men both expressing doubts about whether they could work together.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 956 electors from July 1-14, 2013. Of all electors surveyed 4% (down 2%) didn’t name a party.

Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll - July 18, 2013


New Zealand GCR


For further information:

Gary Morgan
Office +61 3 9224 5213   
Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine
Office +61 3 9224 5215   
Mobile +61 411 129 093


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.5

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1