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National Party 44% (up 3%) only slightly behind Labour/ Greens 44.5% (down 2.5%) Support for United Future drops to 0% as Peter Dunne fights to re-register party

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 909 electors from June 3-16, 2013. Of all electors surveyed a high 6% (up 1%) didn’t name a party.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a jump in support for Prime Minister John Key’s National Party to 44% (up 3% since May 13-26, 2013). Support for Key’s Coalition partners is slightly down overall with the Maori Party 2% (unchanged), ACT NZ 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future 0% (down 0.5%).

Support for Labour is 33% (down 2%); Greens are 11.5% (down 0.5%), New Zealand First 6% (up 1.5%) – the highest since November 2012, Mana Party 1% (up 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ 2% (down 0.5%) and Others 0% (down 1.5%).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows it would be too close to call.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down 2.5pts to 120.5 with 54% (down 1.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 33.5% (up 1%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National (44%, up 3%) almost tied with a potential Labour/ Greens Coalition (44.5%, down 2.5%) leaving NZ First (6%, up 1.5%) as potential powerbrokers in determining who would form Government if an election were held now.

“Pressure on United Future Leader Peter Dunne over his alleged leaking of a Government Communications Security Bureau (GCSB) Report has already led to his resignation as Minister of Revenue and Dunne faces another challenge to re-register United Future as a political party following its de-registration after being unable to prove it had the 500 members required to be a registered political party. The New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows support for United Future slumping to 0%, its lowest since February 2013.” 


Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 909 electors from June 3-16, 2013. Of all electors surveyed a high 6% (up 1%) didn’t name a party.

New Zealand Roy Morgan Voting Intention - June 2013

New Zealand GCR


For further information:

Gary Morgan
Office +61 3 9224 5213   
Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine
Office +61 3 9224 5215   
Mobile +61 411 129 093


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.5

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1