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National Party rebounds 6% to 46.5%; Labour down 4% to 31.5% As New Zealand passes laws to legalise same-sex marriage

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a NZ wide cross-section of 877 electors from April 15-28, 2013. Of all electors surveyed 5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.
Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a substantial gain in support for Prime Minister John Key’s National Party to 46.5% (up 6% since April 1-14, 2013). Support for Key’s Coalition partners remains low with the Maori Party 1.5% (down 0.5%), ACT NZ 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future 0.5% (unchanged).

Support for Labour is 31.5% (down 4%); Greens are 11% (down 2.5%), New Zealand First 4.5% (down 0.5%), Mana Party 1% (up 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ 2% (up 0.5%) and Others 1% (up 0.5%).

Despite the strong rise in support for National, if a National Election were held now this New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that it would be too close to call.

However, in further good news for the Government the latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up 4.5pts to 120.5 with 54.5% (up 3%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 34% (down 1.5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan says:
“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National (46.5%, up 6%) increasing its lead over the main Opposition Labour Party (31.5%, down 4%) after New Zealand became the thirteenth country in the world, and the first in the Asia-Pacific, to legalise same-sex marriage. Today’s result returns National to a lead similar to the lead it held two months ago in late February — National (47.5%) cf. Labour (30.5%).
“Although National has substantially increased their vote, the low support for governing Coalition partners the Maori Party, ACT NZ and United Future mean a combined Labour/ Greens/ New Zealand First coalition remains a good chance of forming Government after the next New Zealand Election — due late next year.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a NZ wide cross-section of 877 electors from April 15-28, 2013. Of all electors surveyed 5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

NZ Primary Vote

NZ Government Confidence

Voting Intention Summary 

The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 26, 2011 General Election:

PRIMARY VOTE

National

Labour

Green
Party

NZ
First

Maori
Party*

Mana
Party

ACT
NZ

United
Future

Conservative
Party

Other

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

General Election, July 27, 2002
20.9 41.3 7 10.4 n/a n/a 7.1 6.7 n/a 6.6
General Election, September 17, 2005
39.1 41.1 5.3 5.72 2.12 n/a 1.51 2.67 n/a 2.48
General Election, November 8, 2008
44.93 33.99 6.72 4.07 2.39 n/a 3.65 0.87 n/a 3.38
General Election, November 26, 2011
47.31 27.48 11.06 6.59 1.43 1.08 1.07 0.60 2.65 0.73

MORGAN POLL

                   
January 3-15, 2012
47 27.5 14.5 5 1.5 1 0.5 0.5 n/a 2.5
January 16-29, 2012
46 30.5 13 5.5 2 0.5 0.5 0.5 n/a 1.5
January 30 - February 12, 2012
45.5 31 11.5 6 1.5 1 1 0.5 n/a 2
February 13-26, 2012
45.5 31.5 13 5 1.5 1 0.5 0.5 n/a 1.5
February 27 - March 11, 2012
48.5 30 12.5 5 1 0.5 0.5 0.5 n/a 1.5
March 12 - April 1, 2012
44 30.5 17 5 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 n/a 0.5
April 2-15, 2012
49.5 26.5 12.5 6.5 1.5 1 ^ 1 n/a 1.5
April 16-29, 2012
47 28.5 15 5 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 n/a 1.5
April 30 - May 13, 2012
44.5 30 15 5.5 1 0.5 ^ 1 n/a 2.5
May 14-27, 2012
44 30.5 13.5 5 2 1 1 0.5 n/a 2.5
May 28 - June 7, 2012
46 31 12.5 5.5 1.5 1 ^ 0.5 n/a 2
June 8-24, 2012
47.5 32 12 4 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 n/a 1.5
June 25-July 8, 2012
45.5 32.5 13 4.5 1 0.5 0.5 0.5 n/a 2
July 9-22, 2012
47.5 30 11 5.5 1 0.5 1 0.5 3 ^
July 23-August 5, 2012
44 32 14 4 2 1 0.5 0.5 1.5 0.5
August 13-26, 2012
44.5 32 14.5 5 2.5 ^ 1 ^ 0.5 ^
August 27-September 9, 2012
46.5 31 12.5 4.5 2.5 1 0.5 ^ 1 0.5
September 10-23, 2012
43.5 33 11.5 5 2.5 1.5 0.5 ^ 2 0.5
September 24 - October 7, 2012
41.5 33.5 13.5 6.5 1.5 ^ 0.5 0.5 2 0.5
October 8-21, 2012
43.5 29 13 7.5 3.5 0.5 0.5 ^ 2 0.5
October 29 - Novenber 11, 2012
45.5 32.5 10.5 5 2 1 0.5 0.5 1.5 1
November 12-25, 2012
45 31.5 13.5 6.5 1 ^ 0.5 0.5 1.5 ^
November 26 - December 9, 2012
45.5 33.5 11 5 1.5 1 1 ^ 1 0.5
January 2-13, 2013
46 31.5 12 5 2 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5 0.5
January 14-27, 2013
46 31.5 13.5 5.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 ^ 0.5 0.5
January 28 - February 10, 2013
44 34.5 13.5 4 0.5 0.5 0.5 ^ 2 0.5
February 11-24, 2013
47.5 30.5 12.5 3 2.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 2 0.5

February 25 - March 10, 2013

43.5 32.5 13.5 5 2 ^ 0.5 0.5 2 0.5

March 11-24, 2013

44 34.5 13 3 2.5 0.5 0.5 1 1 ^

April 1-14, 2013

40.5 35.5 13.5 5 2 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5 0.5

April 15-28, 2013

46.5 31.5 11 4.5 1.5 1 0.5 0.5 2 1

*The Maori Party was launched in July 2004; ^ Result less than 0.5%.

VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY
National Party-led Government v Parliamentary Opposition Parties

The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 26, 2011 General Election:

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE

National Party-led
Government*

Opposition
Parties#

 

%

%

General Election, November 8, 2008
51.84 48.16
General Election, November 26, 2011
50.41 46.21

MORGAN POLL

   
January 3-15, 2012
49.5 48
January 16-29, 2012
49 49.5
January 30 - February 12, 2012
48.5 49.5
February 13-26, 2012
48 50.5
February 27 - March 11, 2012
50.5 48
March 12 - April 1, 2012
46.5 53
April 2-15, 2012
52 46.5
April 16-29, 2012
49.5 49
April 30 - May 13, 2012
46.5 51
May 14-27, 2012
47.5 50
May 28-June 7, 2012
48 51.5
June 8-24, 2012
50 48.5
June 25-July 8, 2012
47.5 50.5
July 9-22, 2012
50 47
July 23 - August 5, 2012
47 51
August 13-26, 2012
48 51.5
August 27 - September 9, 2012
49.5 49
September 10-23, 2012
46.5 51
September 24 - October 7, 2012
44 53.5
October 8-21, 2012
47.5 50
October 29 - November 11, 2012
48.5 49
November 12-25, 2012
47 51.5
November 26 - December 9, 2012
48 50.5
January 2-13, 2013
49 49
January 14-27, 2013
48 51
January 28 - February 10, 2013
45 52.5
February 11-24, 2013
51 46.5

February 25 - March 10, 2013

46.5 51

March 11-24, 2013

48 51

April 1-14, 2013

43.5 54.5

April 15-28, 2013

49 48
*National-led Government: National Party, Maori Party, ACT NZ, United Future; #Opposition Parties: Labour Party, Green Party, Mana Party, NZ First. Other & Conservative Party not included as they are not represented in Parliament.

NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of John Key): Interviewing Dates

Jan 30-Feb 12,
2012

Feb 13-26,
2012

Feb 27-Mar 11,
2012

Mar 12-Apr 1,
2012

Apr 2-15,
2012

Apr 16-29,
2012

Apr 30-May 13,
2012

May 14-27,
2012

May 28-Jun 7,
2012

Jun 8-24,
2012

Jun 25-Jul 8,
2012

July 9-22,
2012

% % % % % % % % % % % %

Right direction

57 53.5 52.5 53.5 55.5 55 51 49 48 52 51.5 50

Wrong direction

30 32.5 34 29.5 31 32.5 35.5 38 37.5 34.5 34 36.5

Roy Morgan GCR#

127 121 118.5 124 124.5 122.5 115.5 111 110.5 117.5 117.5 113.5

Can’t say

13 14 13.5 17 13.5 12.5 13.5 13 14.5 13.5 14.5 13.5

TOTAL

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

#Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is
“heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of John Key): Interviewing Dates

July 23-Aug 5,
2012

Aug 13-26,
2012

Aug 27-Sep 9,
2012

Sep 10-23,
2012

Sep 24-Oct 7,
2012

Oct 8-21,
2012

Oct 29- Nov 11,
2012

Nov 12-25,
2012

Nov 26-Dec 9,
2012

Jan 2-13,
2013

Jan 14-27,
2013

Jan 28-Feb 10,
2013

Feb 11-24,
2013

% % % % % % % % % % % % %

Right direction

49 49.5 51 47.5 44 49 51.5 48.5 53 53.5 57 55 54

Wrong direction

34.5 34.5 34.5 37.5 38 39 34 37.5 34 33.5 30.5 30.5 32.5

Roy Morgan GCR#

114.5 115 116.5 110 106 110 117.5 111 119 120 126.5 124.5 121.5

Can’t say

16.5 16 14.5 15 18 12 14.5 14 13 13 12.5 14.5 13.5

TOTAL

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

#Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is
“heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of John Key): Interviewing Dates

Feb 25-Mar 10,
2013

Mar 11-24,
2013

April 1-14,
2013

April 15-28,
2013
% % % %

Right direction

51.5 53.5 51.5 54.5

Wrong direction

37.5 34 35.5 34

Roy Morgan GCR#

114 119.5 116 120.5

Can’t say

11 12.5 13 11.5

TOTAL

100 100 100 100

#Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).


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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

 

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40%-60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
500 ±4.5 ±3.9 ±2.7 ±1.9
1,000 ±3.2 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.4