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Australians clearly want previous Leaders. Kevin Rudd (33%) clearly preferred ALP Leader over Julia Gillard (14%) & Malcolm Turnbull (47%) clearly favoured Liberal Leader over Tony Abbott (18%)

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last two nights this week of June 11-12, 2013, with an Australia-wide cross section of 475 electors.

A special telephone Morgan Poll over the last two nights this week (June 11-12, 2013) finds:

  • Former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is still the preferred ALP Leader (33%, down 1% since November 27-29, 2012) over Prime Minister Julia Gillard (14%, down 8%). Other candidates are well behind with 11% (up 5%) supporting Employment & Workplace Relations Minister Bill Shorten, 10% (unchanged) supporting Defence Minister Stephen Smith, 6% (unchanged) supporting Treasurer and Deputy Prime Minister Wayne Swan, and 5% (up 1%) supporting Greg Combet the only candidates with at least 5% support.

  • Significantly more ALP voters prefer Kevin Rudd 36% (up 3%) as ALP Leader ahead of Prime Minister Julia Gillard (33%, down 8%) while only Bill Shorten (14%, up 10%) has more than 3% support.

  • Former Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull is still strongly preferred as Liberal Party Leader (47%, down 3%) well ahead of Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey (19%, up 1%) and current Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (18%, up 3%). All three candidates are well ahead of Deputy Opposition Leader Julie Bishop (6%, up 1%).

  • Now only slightly more L-NP voters prefer former Leader Malcolm Turnbull (35%, down 5%) as Liberal Party Leader ahead of Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (33%, up 5%) with both clearly preferred to Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey (24%, up 2%). All three are well ahead of Deputy Opposition Leader Julie Bishop (4%, down 1%).

  • If Prime Minister Julia Gillard were to resign for any reason, former PM Kevin Rudd is still clearly preferred as ALP Leader (36%, down 4%) ahead of Bill Shorten (14%, up 6%) and Stephen Smith (11%, down 1%).

  • If Mr Abbott were to resign as Opposition Leader tomorrow, Mr Turnbull (51%, down 5%) is clearly preferred to Joe Hockey (26%, up 4%) and both are clearly ahead of current Deputy Opposition Leader Julie Bishop (9%, up 1%).

Gary Morgan says:

“Australian electors still clearly favour former leaders Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull to lead Australia’s two major political parties only a few months away from this year’s Federal Election. Now 33% (down 1% since November 2012) of Australian electors prefer former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd (December 2006 – June 2010) as ALP Leader far ahead of current Prime Minister Julia Gillard (14%, down 8%). This is the lowest level of support Gillard has had since before the ALP won the 2007 Federal Election. For the first time since Rudd lost the leadership almost exactly three years ago in June 2010, Rudd (36%, up 3%) is now preferred by ALP voters over Gillard (33%, down 8%).

“Similarly, former Liberal Party Leader Malcolm Turnbull (September 2008 – December 2009) is strongly preferred to lead the Liberal Party (47%, down 3%) ahead of both current Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (18%, up 3%) and Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey (19%, up 1%). Most worryingly for Abbott, Turnbull is also slightly preferred by L-NP voters: Turnbull (35%, down 5%) cf. Abbott (33%, up 5%) – although Abbott has significantly closed that gap since November last year.”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last two nights this week of June 11-12, 2013, with an Australia-wide cross section of 475 electors.

Federal Voting Intention

As with all Roy Morgan surveys Federal voting intention was asked. Based on a sample of 475 electors this telephone Morgan Poll showed the L-NP (59%) cf. ALP (41%) on a two-party preferred basis. The primary vote showed the L-NP (50.5%), ALP (26%), Greens (12%) and Independent/ Others (11.5%).

This result is identical to last week’s telephone Morgan Poll on a two-party preferred basis which also showed the L-NP (59%) cf. ALP (41%) and also very similar to last weekend’s telephone Newspoll which showed the L-NP (58%) cf. ALP (42%) on a two-party preferred basis and primary voting intention of L-NP (49%), ALP (30%), Greens (9%) and Independent/ Others (12%).

Both the telephone Morgan Poll and telephone Newspoll recorded a higher L-NP vote than recorded in last weekend’s multi-mode Morgan Poll of 3,369 Australian electors which showed the L-NP (56%) cf. ALP (44%). Primary voting intention of L-NP (46%), ALP (31%), Greens (9.5%) and Independent/ Others (13.5%). It is well-known that telephone polls produce a higher result for the party ‘expected to win’ Government – now the Coalition!



1. Preferred Labor Leader

Electors were then asked: “If you were a Labor Party voter and helping to choose the Labor leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer?” 

 

Julia Gillard as Prime Minister

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

Nov 2/3,
2011

Jan 17/18,
2012

Sep 17-20,
2012

Nov 27-29,
2012

June 11/12,
2013

ALP

L-NP

The
Greens

Ind/
Other

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Rudd

31

33

34

34

33

36

29

43

34

Gillard

24

19

22

22

14

33

5

17

12

Shorten

5

8

4

6

11

14

10

11

9

Smith

9

10

9

10

10

2

16

7

11

Swan

7

8

7

6

6

3

6

-

9

Combet

3

4

4

4

5

3

3

12

10

Macklin

1

2

2

2

4

2

5

2

4

Bowen

1

1

2

2

3

1

7

-

-

Someone else

3

1

1

2

1

-

3

-

-

Can’t say

16

14

15

12

13

6

16

8

11

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


2. Preferred Labor Leader other than Julia Gillard

Electors who preferred Julia Gillard as ALP Leader were then asked:

Still thinking about helping choose the Labor leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer out of: Kevin Rudd, Wayne Swan, Stephen Smith, Bill Shorten, Jenny Macklin, Chris Bowen or Greg Combet?

The answers were added to those preferred for Labor Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Julia Gillard.

 

Julia Gillard as Prime Minister

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

Nov 2/3,
2011

Jan 17/18,
2012

Sep 17-20,
2012

Nov 27-29,
2012

June 11/12,
2013

ALP

L-NP

TheGreens

Ind/

Other

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Gillard

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Rudd

39

38

38

40

36

42

31

50

35

Shorten

8

12

8

8

14

24

10

11

11

Smith

13

11

12

12

11

4

16

9

11

Swan

10

12

12

11

7

7

7

-

11

Combet

5

6

7

7

6

7

3

14

10

Bowen

1

2

2

3

4

2

7

-

-

Macklin

3

3

4

3

4

4

5

4

4

Someone else

3

1

1

3

1

-

3

-

-

Can’t say

18

15

16

13

17

10

18

12

18

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100



3. Preferred Coalition Leader

Electors were asked: “If you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer?” 

 

Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

Nov 2/3,
2011

Jan 17/18,
2012

Sep 17-20,
2012

Nov 27-29,
2012

June 11/12,
2013

ALP

L-NP

The Greens

Ind/
Other

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Turnbull

38

37

42

50

47

    66

35

60

47

Hockey

17

19

18

18

19

11

24

15

24

Abbott

24

22

19

15

18

2

33

5

10

Bishop

6

6

7

5

6

7

4

9

9

Pyne

2

1

2

2

1

-

1

-

-

Robb

2

3

1

1

1

2

*

2

2

Someone else

1

1

1

1

1

-

1

2

-

Can’t say

10

11

10

8

7

12

2

7

8

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

*Indicates support for this candidate of less than 0.5%.

 

4. Preferred Coalition Leader other than Tony Abbott

Electors who preferred Tony Abbott were then asked:

Still thinking about helping choose the Coalition leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer out of: Malcolm Turnbull, Julie Bishop, Joe Hockey, Andrew Robb & Christopher Pyne?

The answers were added to those preferred Coalition Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Tony Abbott.

 

Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

Nov 2/3,
2011

Jan 17/18,
2012

Sep 17-20,
2012

Nov 27-29,
2012

June 11/12,
2013

ALP

L-NP

The
Greens

Ind/
Other

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Abbott

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Turnbull

45

43

48

56

51

66

44

60

47

Hockey

26

26

24

22

26

12

34

17

30

Bishop

10

9

10

8

9

8

10

11

10

Pyne

4

2

3

3

2

-

3

2

-

Robb

3

4

2

1

1

2

1

-

2

Someone else

1

1

1

1

1

-

1

2

-

Can’t say

11

15

12

9

10

12

7

8

11

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

 

For further information:

Gary Morgan:       Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

 

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association. 

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.