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New Prime Minister Kevin Rudd (42%) clearly preferred ALP Leader & Malcolm Turnbull (51%) clearly favoured Liberal Leader

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last two nights this week of July 16/17, 2013, with an Australia-wide cross section of 549 electors.

A special telephone Morgan Poll over the last two nights this week (July 16/17, 2013) finds:

  • New Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is still clearly the preferred ALP Leader (42%, up 9% since June 11-12, 2013) over former Prime Minister Julia Gillard (9%, down 5%). Two other candidates are now equal with Gillard for the first time: Employment & Workplace Relations Minister Bill Shorten (9%, down 2%) and Defence Minister Stephen Smith (9%, down 1%). A further 5% (down 1%) support former Treasurer and Deputy Prime Minister Wayne Swan.

  • After the Labor leadership change significantly more ALP voters prefer Kevin Rudd 71% (up 35%) as ALP Leader ahead of Prime Minister Julia Gillard (7%, down 26%) while only Bill Shorten (4%, down 10%) and Wayne Swan 4%, (down 3%) have more than 3% support.

  • Former Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull is still strongly preferred as Liberal Party Leader (51%, up 4%) well ahead of current Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (16%, down 2%) and Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey (14%, down 5%). All three candidates are well ahead of Deputy Opposition Leader Julie Bishop (7%, up 1%).

  • Significantly more L-NP voters now prefer former Leader Malcolm Turnbull (39%, up 4%) as Liberal Party Leader ahead of Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (30%, down 3%) with both clearly preferred to Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey (20%, down 4%). All three are well ahead of Deputy Opposition Leader Julie Bishop (5%, up 1%).

  • If Prime Minister Kevin Rudd were to resign for any reason, former PM Julia Gillard is only slightly preferred as ALP Leader (16%) ahead of Bill Shorten (15%, up 1%), Wayne Swan (14%, up 7%) and Stephen Smith (13%, up 2%).

  • If Mr Abbott were to resign as Opposition Leader tomorrow, Mr Turnbull (57%, up 6%) is clearly preferred to Joe Hockey (19%, down 7%) and current Deputy Opposition Leader Julie Bishop (11%, up 2%).

Gary Morgan says:

“New Prime Minister Kevin Rudd (42%, up 9% in a month) is now clearly Australian electors’ preferred Labor Leader well ahead of three candidates – former Prime Minister Julia Gillard (9%, down 5%), Employment & Workplace Relations Minister Bill Shorten (9%, down 2%) and Defence Minister Stephen Smith (9%, down 1%). Neither Gillard nor Smith is contesting this year’s Federal Election due to be called any day now. Labor supporters have also massively switched their allegiance to Rudd (71%, up 35%) over the past month away from Gillard (7%, down 26%).

“In contrast, former Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull (51%, up 4%) is now further ahead of Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (16%, down 2%) as preferred Liberal Party Leader. Only Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey (14%, down 5%) has a significant level of support. In addition, L-NP supporters now clearly prefer Turnbull (39%, up 4%) to either Abbott (30%, down 3%) or Hockey (20%, down 4%). It is worth noting that Turnbull’s lead over Abbott as preferred Liberal Party Leader (51% cf. 16%) is substantially greater than the lead Rudd had over Gillard (33% cf. 14%) before winning the Labor Leadership back in late June.

“What will be very concerning for Abbott is that in a match-up between potential Prime Ministers, a separate Morgan Poll shows Rudd (52%, up 2% in a month) is clearly preferred to Abbott (36%, down 7%) as Better Prime Minister whilst for the first time Turnbull (52%, up 28% since January 2010) is now preferred to Rudd (38%, down 25%) as Better Prime Minister.”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last two nights this week of July 16/17, 2013, with an Australia-wide cross section of 549 electors.

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Contact us to for a free 2-week-trial of our weekly Federal Election Voting Intention report (offer valid till 15 August 2013).


Preferred Labor Leader

Electors were then asked: “If you were a Labor Party voter and helping to choose the Labor leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer?” 

 

Julia Gillard as Prime Minister

PM Rudd

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

Jan 17/18,

2012

Sep 17-20,

2012

Nov 27-29,

2012

June 11/12,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

ALP

L-NP

The

Greens

Ind/

Other

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Rudd

33

34

34

33

42

71

23

33

26

Gillard

19

22

22

14

9

7

4

31

17

Shorten

8

4

6

11

9

4

13

6

12

Smith

10

9

10

10

9

3

16

-

4

Swan

8

7

6

6

5

4

6

5

7

Bowen

1

2

2

3

4

2

6

-

4

Combet

4

4

4

5

4

3

3

5

10

Macklin

2

2

2

4

3

*

3

2

9

Someone else

1

1

2

1

2

2

2

5

2

Can’t say

14

15

12

13

13

4

24

13

9

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

Preferred Labor Leader other than Kevin Rudd

Electors who preferred Kevin Rudd as ALP Leader were then asked:

Still thinking about helping choose the Labor leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer out of: Julia Gillard, Wayne Swan, Stephen Smith, Bill Shorten, Jenny Macklin, Chris Bowen or Greg Combet?

The answers were added to those preferred for Labor Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Kevin Rudd.

 

Julia Gillard as Prime Minister

PM Rudd

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

Jan 17/18,

2012

Sep 17-20,

2012

Nov 27-29,

2012

June 11/12,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

ALP

L-NP

The

Greens

Ind/

Other

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Rudd

38

38

40

36

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Gillard

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

16

21

6

40

23

Shorten

12

8

8

14

15

15

16

16

12

Swan

12

12

11

7

14

19

11

12

12

Smith

11

12

12

11

13

11

19

2

6

Combet

6

7

7

6

7

8

5

5

10

Bowen

2

2

3

4

6

7

7

-

4

Macklin

3

4

3

4

4

3

4

5

12

Someone else

1

1

3

1

3

4

2

5

2

Can’t say

15

16

13

17

22

12

30

15

19

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Preferred Coalition Leader

Electors were asked: “If you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer?”

 

Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

Jan 17/18,

2012

Sep 17-20,

2012

Nov 27-29,

2012

June 11/12,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

ALP

L-NP

The Greens

Ind/

Other

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Turnbull

37

42

50

47

51

64

39

75

47

Abbott

22

19

15

18

16

4

30

5

10

Hockey

19

18

18

19

14

12

20

2

16

Bishop

6

7

5

6

7

8

5

4

15

Pyne

1

2

2

1

1

2

1

-

2

Robb

3

1

1

1

1

2

*

-

4

Someone else

1

1

1

1

1

*

2

-

-

Can’t say

11

10

8

7

9

8

3

14

6

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

*Indicates support for this candidate of less than 0.5%.


Preferred Coalition Leader other than Tony Abbott

Electors who preferred Tony Abbott were then asked:

Still thinking about helping choose the Coalition leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer out of: Malcolm Turnbull, Julie Bishop, Joe Hockey, Andrew Robb & Christopher Pyne?

The answers were added to those preferred Coalition Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Tony Abbott.

 

Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

Jan 17/18,

2012

Sep 17-20,

2012

Nov 27-29,

2012

June 11/12,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

ALP

L-NP

The

Greens

Ind/

Other

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Abbott

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Turnbull

43

48

56

51

57

64

49

75

51

Hockey

26

24

22

26

19

12

28

2

18

Bishop

9

10

8

9

11

9

12

9

16

Pyne

2

3

3

2

2

2

2

-

2

Robb

4

2

1

1

2

3

1

-

4

Someone else

1

1

1

1

1

*

2

-

-

Can’t say

15

12

9

10

8

10

6

14

9

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

For further information:

Gary Morgan:       Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

 

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association. 

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.