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National Party 46.5% (up 2.5%) now lead Labour/ Greens 44.5% (unchanged) but Maori Party Leader Pita Sharples announces resignation after Maori Party finishes third in by-election for Maori seat Ikaroa-Rawhiti

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 971 electors from June 17-30, 2013. Of all electors surveyed a high 6% (unchanged) didn’t name a party.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a jump in support for Prime Minister John Key’s National Party to 46.5% (up 2.5% since June 3-16, 2013). Support for Key’s Coalition partners is little changed with the Maori Party 1.5% (down 0.5%), ACT NZ 0% (down 0.5%) and United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%).

Support for Labour is 31.5% (down 1.5%); Greens are 13% (up 1.5%), New Zealand First 3.5% (down 2.5%), Mana Party 0.5% (down 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ 2% (unchanged) and Others 1% (up 1%).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows it would be too close to call.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up 4.5pts to 125 with 57% (up 3%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 32% (down 1.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll contains good news for governing National (46.5%, up 2.5%) now clearly ahead of a potential Labour/ Greens Coalition (44.5%, unchanged) despite the Opposition Labour Party easily retaining the Maori seat of Ikaroa-Rawhiti in a weekend by-election. The Maori Party, who provide support to the National-led Government, finished a disappointing third, prompting the resignation, as leader, of Maori Party co-leader Pita Sharples, a position Sharples has held for nine years since July 2004.

“The Maori Party’s poor showing in the by-election prompted Labour Leader David Shearer to remark the Maori Party is ‘finished’ because its close relationship with National was destroying its credibility with voters and leading to increasing support for the Mana Party – which finished second in Ikaroa-Rawhiti.”

 

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 971 electors from June 17-30, 2013. Of all electors surveyed a high 6% (unchanged) didn’t name a party.


Roy Morgan New Zealand - Latest Voting Intention


New Zealand GCR


For further information:

Gary Morgan
Office +61 3 9224 5213   
Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine
Office +61 3 9224 5215   
Mobile +61 411 129 093


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.5

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1