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88,000 jobs created in June, but unemployment up slightly to 9.7% and under-employment jumps to 9.2%. More Australians believe Roy Morgan unemployment estimate is ‘closer to reality’ than the ABS

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 336,232 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – June 2013 and includes 4,665 face-to-face interviews in June 2013. The SMS Morgan Poll was conducted last Tuesday with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,568 Australians aged 14+.

In June 2013 an estimated 1.2 million Australians (9.7% of the workforce) were unemployed. This is up 35,000 (0.2%) from last month. The Australian workforce* was 12,453,000 (up 125,000) comprising 7,540,000 full-time workers (down 57,000), 3,708,000 part-time workers (up 145,000) and 1,205,000 looking for work (up 37,000) according to the Roy Morgan monthly employment estimates. These figures exclude people who have dropped out of the workforce and given up looking.

Among those who were employed 1,141,000 Australians (9.2% of the workforce*) working part-time and looking for more work were under-employed. This is 180,000 more than a month ago (up 1.4%).

In June an estimated 2.346 million Australians (18.9% of the workforce, up 1.6% from May) were unemployed or under-employed (217,000 more than last month), also much higher (246,000, 1.4%) than 12 months ago in June 2012 (2.1 million).

Of those looking for work an estimated 628,000 Australians (down 1,000) were looking for full-time work, while 577,000 (up 38,000) were looking for part-time work.

The latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimate of 9.7% is a substantial 4.2% more than currently quoted by the ABS for May 2013 (5.5%).

A special SMS Morgan Poll question conducted last week with a sample of 1,568 Australians who were told the current ABS May unemployment estimate (5.5%) and the Roy Morgan unemployment estimate (9.5%). A clear majority of Australians (58%) believe the Roy Morgan unemployment estimate of 9.5% is ‘closer to reality’ compared to only 20.5% that believe the ABS unemployment estimate (5.5%) is ‘closer to reality’ and 21.5% that can’t say.

Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimate

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unemployed or

‘Under-employed’*

Unemployed

Unemployed looking for

‘Under-employed’*

Full-time

Part-time

2012

‘000

%

‘000

%

‘000

‘000

‘000

%

Jan–Mar 2012

2,143

17.5

1,192

9.7

599

593

951

7.8

Apr-June 2012

2,121

17.4

1,105

9.1

546

559

1,016

8.3

July-Sep 2012

2,120

17.4

1,196

9.8

584

612

924

7.6

Oct-Dec 2012

2,224

18.4

1,182

9.8

569

613

1,042

8.6

2013

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jan–Mar 2013

2,391

19.2

1,352

10.9

703

649

1,039

8.3

Apr-Jun 2013

2,243

18.1

1,176

9.5

588

587

1,067

8.6

Months

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

May 2012

2,104

17.2

997

8.2

444

553

1,107

9.0

June 2012

2,100

17.5

1,169

9.7

589

580

931

7.8

July 2012

2,113

17.5

1,171

9.7

522

649

942

7.8

August 2012

2,131

17.3

1,205

9.8

634

571

926

7.5

September 2012

2,116

17.4

1,213

10.0

597

616

903

7.4

October 2012

2,138

17.8

1,163

9.7

579

584

975

8.1

November 2012

2,222

18.1

1,229

10.0

553

676

993

8.1

December 2012

2,354

19.2

1,176

9.6

586

590

1,178

9.6

January 2013

2,395

19.7

1,327

10.9

744

583

1,068

8.8

February 2013

2,473

19.8

1,360

10.9

649

711

1,113

8.9

March 2013

2,305

18.2

1,369

10.8

715

654

936

7.4

April 2013

2,254

18.1

1,154

9.3

508

646

1,100

8.8

May 2013

2,129

17.3

1,168

9.5

629

539

961

7.8

June 2013

2,346

18.9

1,205

9.7

628

577

1,141

9.2

*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed. # The Gillard Government’s ‘Fair
Work Australia’ Act was implemented on January 1, 2010, replacing the Howard Government’s ‘Work Choices’ Legislation.


Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s Roy Morgan employment estimates provide good news for the Rudd Government with a net 88,000 new jobs created in June meaning 11,248,000 Australians are now employed. This rise in overall employment was driven by a large increase in part-time employment (3,708,000, up 145,000), while full-time employment fell 57,000 to 7,540,000.

“However, today’s Roy Morgan June employment estimates also show Australian unemployment rising by 37,000 to 1,205,000 (9.7%, up 0.2% in a month) while under-employment has jumped by 180,000 to 1,141,000 (9.2%, up 1.4%) – the highest since December 2012. This means a total of 2.346 million (up 217,000) Australians (18.9%, up 1.6%) are either unemployed or under-employed.

“Roy Morgan unemployment estimate is significantly higher than the latest ABS unemployment estimate (5.5%). A special SMS Morgan Poll conducted with 1,568 Australians last week shows a clear majority of Australians (58%) say the Roy Morgan unemployment estimate is ‘closer to reality’ – while only 20.5% say the ABS unemployment estimate is ‘closer to reality’ and 21.5% can’t say.

“The results of the SMS Morgan Poll show Australians feel the official ABS unemployment rate understates the level of real unemployment in Australia and that despite the RBA’s decision last week to leave Australian interest rates unchanged at 2.75%, further stimulation of the Australian economy is required to help ensure the 2.35 million Australians who are either unemployed or underemployed have the best chance of gainful employment.”

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 336,232 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – June 2013 and includes 4,665 face-to-face interviews in June 2013. The SMS Morgan Poll was conducted last Tuesday with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,568 Australians aged 14+.

*The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS does not measure this figure in their monthly unemployment survey.)

 

For further information:

 

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093




Unemployment Data Tables

Roy Morgan Research Employment Estimates (2001-2013)

Roy Morgan Research Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates (2007-2013)

Roy Morgan Research vs ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2013)

ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2013)


Roy Morgan Unemployment Estimate - June 2013


Roy Morgan Unemployment Estimate - June Quarter 2013


Roy Morgan Under-employment Estimate - June 2013


ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA

NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012

http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Papers/2012/20120603.pdf

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when.

The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.