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Big swing to the ALP after Rudd returned as leader tonight. ALP 49.5% (up 5%) cf. L-NP 50.5% (down 5%) – but will it be enough?

Finding No. 4997 - This special snap SMS Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted this evening via SMS interviewing after the result of the ALP leadership ballot was announced, 8pm June 26, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,530 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed a low 0.5% did not name a party.

A special snap SMS Morgan Poll (2,530 Australian electors aged 18+) after tonight’s ALP leadership ballot shows a large swing to the ALP 49.5% (up 5%) since last weekend’s multi-mode Morgan Poll, now just behind the L-NP 50.5% (down 5%) on a two-party preferred basis after former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd was returned to the leadership of the ALP after winning a leadership ballot against outgoing Prime Minister Julia Gillard 57-45.

The L-NP primary vote is 43% (down 4%) still clearly ahead of the ALP 38% (up 7.5%). Among the minor parties Greens support is 8.5% (down 0.5%) and support for Independents/ Others is 10.5% (down 3%).

If a Federal Election were held today the result would be too close to call according to tonight’s special snap SMS Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,530 Australian electors aged 18+.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender tonight shows both genders swinging towards the ALP after Rudd’s return. Women now favour the ALP (51%, up 4%) cf. L-NP (49%, down 4%) on a two party preferred basis while men favour the L-NP (52.5%, down 5.5%) cf. ALP (47.5%, up 5.5%).

Gary Morgan says:

“A special snap SMS Morgan Poll conducted immediately after the results of tonight’s ALP leadership ballot shows the ALP (49.5%, up 5%) now almost level with the L-NP (50.5%, down 5%) on a two-party preferred basis after the return of Kevin Rudd as the ALP leader.

A recent Morgan Poll showed Australian electors preferred Rudd (50%) cf. Abbott (43%) as ‘Better Prime Minister’ while Rudd (33%) was also favoured to lead the ALP ahead of Julia Gillard (14%).

“Rudd’s pre-ballot speech set the scene for a renewed focus on economic matters and economic management an area which is typically a ‘weak spot’ for Labor.

“Rudd’s return as leader clearly puts the pressure on Opposition Leader Tony Abbott, to explain the Coalition’s policies better and put a case for why he should be elected at the coming Federal Election. Particularly important will be the Coalition’s Industrial Relations policies, also referred to by Rudd in his pre-ballot speech, and also the Coalition’s plans for getting the Australian economy moving again.

“The question is will Rudd call an early election and rely on the honeymoon period or take longer to put together his Cabinet and outline his policies to the electorate – policies which tackle a ‘failing’ economy – massive real unemployment and under-employment and falling consumer confidence.”

Electors were asked: “Now that Kevin Rudd is Leader of the ALP which party would receive your FIRST preference?”

Finding No. 4997 - This special snap SMS Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted this evening via SMS interviewing after the result of the ALP leadership ballot was announced, 8pm June 26, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,530 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed a low 0.5% did not name a party.

Click here to browse our Voter Profiles by electorate or weekly Federal Voting Intention Reports with latest demographic trends.


Men 

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

Multi-Mode

Snap SMS (After
Leadership Ballot)

 

June
7-10, 2013

June
14-16, 2013

June
21-23, 2013

June 26,
2013

 

%

%

%

%

ALP

29.5

30.5

28.5

38

L-NP

48 (2)

47.5 (2.5)

50.5 (3)

45.5 (2)

Greens

8.5

7.5

8

6.5

Ind. /Other

14

14.5

13

10

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

ALP

41.5

43.5

42

47.5

L-NP

58.5

56.5

58

52.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

Women

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

Multi-Mode

Snap SMS (After
Leadership Ballot)

 

June
7-10, 2013

June
14-16, 2013

June
21-23, 2013

June 26,
2013

 

%

%

%

%

ALP

32.5

35

32.5

38

L-NP

44.5 (3)

42 (2)

44 (3)

41 (3)

Greens

10.5

10.5

10.5

10.5

Ind. /Other

12.5

12.5

13

10.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

ALP

46

50

47

51

L-NP

54

50

53

49

TOTAL

100

100

100

100



For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093


Snap SMS Morgan Poll shows ALP closing the gap on L-NP

Data Tables


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0