In the first poll taken since the Leader’s Debate Two Party support for the ALP is 53% cf. L-NP 47% giving the ALP a 6 point lead. The latest telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last two nights – July 27/28, 2010 shows the ALP down 2.5% since the telephone Morgan Poll conducted on July 20/21, 2010) and the L-NP up 2.5% on a Two-Party Preferred basis.

The ALP primary vote is 42% (down 2%), level with the L-NP 42% (up 3.5%), the Greens at 11% (down 0.5%), Family First 1.5% (down 0.5%) and Independents/ Others 3.5% (down 0.5%).

Analysis by gender shows both genders have recorded falls in the ALP vote since the Debate. The clear gender gap still exists between the ALP & L-NP. Among women the ALP leads by 16 points (ALP 58% cf. L-NP 42%) while among men the L-NP is 3 points ahead (L-NP 51.5 cf. ALP 48.5).

The Face-to-Face Morgan Poll conducted last weekend – prior to Sunday night’s Leader’s Debate – showed the ALP (55.5%) well ahead of the L-NP (44.5%) and unchanged since the previous midweek telephone Morgan Poll.

Despite substantial gains in the electorate’s perception of the ALP as the best party for health services and hospitals, needs of families and a fair workplace and employment relations, Julia Gillard has lost ground personally – with her approval rating since the Debate down 12% to 46% – 37% (up 11%) now disapprove and 17% (up 1%) undecided.

Tony Abbott on the other hand has gained in overall approval – now 46% (up 11%) approve of the way he is handling his job – equal to Julia Gillard. Julia Gillard is still preferred as Prime Minister but with a substantially reduced lead – now 48% (down 10%) prefer Julia Gillard as Prime Minister compared to 33% (up 4%) who prefer Opposition Leader Tony Abbott.

The gender divide that has emerged as such a strong theme for this Federal Election is still strong for Julia Gillard. Prime Minister Gillard’s approval has dropped substantially among both men (down 12% to 40%) and women (down 8% to 51%) – and her position as ‘Better PM’ has been reduced among both men (down 9% to 45%) and women (down 10% to 52%).

However, Tony Abbott has gained ground with women – 41% (up 5%) now approve of Tony Abbott’s handing of his job while 51% (up 1%) of men approve.

Full article.

Consumer Confidence rose 1.1pts to 124.1 according to the weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating conducted on the weekend of July 24/25, 2010. After this week’s rise, weekly Consumer Confidence is 6.3pts higher than a year ago, July 25/26, 2009 (117.8).

This week’s small rise in the weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating has been driven mainly by increased confidence about respondents’ personal financial situations and by increased confidence about buying major household items.

In terms of Australians’ personal finances, now 30% (up 2%) say their family is ‘better off financially’ than a year ago compared to 29% (down 4%) that say their family is ‘worse off financially’ than a year ago.

Of Australians 58% (up 1%) say ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items compared to 16% (down 3%) that say ‘now is a bad time to buy’ major household items.

Click here to purchase a detailed "Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report"

Roy Morgan Reasearch – the ‘gold standard’ in market research in Australia and Effective Measure International – the industry standard in online audience measurement in South East Asia, have created a strategic partnership which will see them working together to develop a totally new internet measurement methodology and system.

Targeted at product suppliers, retailers, publisher and advertising agencies, the new offering will incorporate Effective Measure International technology with the power and depth of Roy Morgan Single Source.

Effective Measure International’s patented methodology addresses Cookie deletion and audience ‘over estimation’ which has been a concern of the industry for many years.

Michele Levine, Roy Morgan Research CEO says:

“The launch of our joint venture offering will herald a new era of web measurement and understanding in Australia, offering a completely unbiased and accurate picture of internet usage. Effective Measure International is the leading provider of internet measurement in South East Asia and we are the ‘gold-standard’ for consumer profiling in Australia. Our hybrid internet measurement system will set a new standard in internet measurement.”

The product development partnership reflects our shared commitment to supply transparent, 360o views of Australians in their online and offline behaviour and activity.

Over the next few months the Roy Morgan Research, Effective Measure International partnership will be working closely with existing customers to shape this new offering, ensuring that it meets the needs of all the different stakeholders in the marketplace.

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Thanks, I did say to Greg Romanes I would step in if someone couldn’t speak – I didn’t expect it would be in the middle of a Federal Election campaign – but that’s how it goes.

Our business at Roy Morgan Research is about commercialisation of consumer information – today we have over $50 million of revenue from banks, publishers, TV, radio, advertising agencies, telcos, retailing and other companies and the Government.

We do the Federal Government’s national drug survey and HILDA (Household Income Labour Dynamics Australia) – a major study tracking some 10,000 household every year – to help the Government understand such things as whether unemployment (5.9% – 682,000 in June 2010), is a short term phenomenon – or whether there are people in long-term unemployment – similarly with health and poverty.

The political polling business is where we began back in 1941, but is not where our money is made. We do not work for either political party – we are independent (although all parties look at our press releases).

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Solomon in the NT, incorporating Darwin and Palmerston, is one of the Labor Party’s most marginal seats – requiring only a 0.2% swing to be returned to the CLP (Coalition).

Since the ALP was elected in 2007, the most important issues in this seat have been:

• Improving health services and hospitals 22%
• Reducing the taxes you pay 22%
• The needs of families 18%
• Open and honest government 18%
• The environment 18%
• Education 16%
• Managing the economy 15%

Demographically Solomon electors are:

• Evenly divided on gender – 50% men 50% women,
• Younger – 33% of electors are under 35 , 66% under 50, (so there are lots of Gen Y issues-one third of electorate are Gen Y),
• Affluent – 32% of electors are in the top 20% socio-economically, and the average household income is around $105,000 (higher than say Bennelong – ex-PM John Howard’s old electorate).

Economic Issues (20%, up 6% since June 25-28, 2010), is the most important issue that the Federal Government could address that would most benefit electors and their families according to a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over two nights (July 20/21, 2010).

Health (18%, unchanged) ranks as the next highest concern ahead of Social Welfare and Social Issues (16%, up 1%) and Taxation (14%, down 11%).

Analysis by Gender & Age

Men are far more concerned about Economic Issues (21%) than any other issue ahead of Taxation (15%), Social welfare (14%) and Health (11%).

However, women are more concerned with Health (25%) while Economic Issues (19%), Social welfare (19%) and Education (15%) are also important issues.

Across all age groups measured Health is a major issue – 18-24yr olds (25%), 25-34yr olds (16%); 35-49 yr olds (18%), 50-64yr olds (20%) and those aged 65+ (22%).

Analysis by Voting intention

L-NP supporters (26%) are more concerned about the Economy than ALP supporters (14%) – including 8% of L-NP supporters compared to less than 0.5% of ALP supporters concerned about wasting Taxpayer’s money.

Supporters of the Greens (27%) are far more likely to mention the Environment than supporters of the two major parties – ALP (8%) or L-NP (1%) while Health remains an important issue for ALP supporters (22%), L-NP supporters (14%) and Greens supporters (18%).

Analysis by State

In New South Wales (24%) and Victoria (22%) the biggest issue for electors is the Economy. In Queensland and Western Australia (both 20%), the biggest concern is Taxation and the biggest concern in South Australia (18%) and Tasmania (31%) is Social Welfare.

Full article.

The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows support for John Key’s National-led Government has weakened to 54.5% (down 4%), comprising National Party 49% (down 4%), Maori Party 3% (unchanged), ACT NZ 2% (unchanged) and United Future 0.5% (unchanged) – these declines follow a second consecutive monthly fall in the ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Index – now at 115.6 (down 6.4pts in July 2010) and the lowest since August 2009 (112.3).

Support for Opposition Parties has risen to 45.5% (up 4%); Labour Party 31.5% (up 2.5%), Greens 9% (up 0.5%), New Zealand First 4.5% (up 1.5% – and now at its highest since the 2008 Election), Progressive Party 0.5% (up 0.5%) and Others 0% (down 1%).

If a National Election were held today the National Party would be clearly returned to Government.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down 13.5pts to 130.5 with 58% (down 7%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 27.5% (up 6.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’