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April 2004

Summary:

Newly revised population adjustments from the ABS will be incorporated by Roy Morgan Research in data released from February 2004.

Some population differences are noticeable and will result in changes to estimates of readership, product consumption and other data.

Previously released data will not be amended. Phasing in of the new ABS population changes will minimise their impact.

Most noticeable population changes have occurred with:

• decreases in Melbourne, Sydney, men, under 50 year olds and the total population
• increases in NSW country, Victorian country, and over 50 year olds.

Application of the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) February 2004 Labour Force Survey population adjustments to Roy Morgan Research Single Source Weighting

Background:

The February 2004 edition of the Labour Force Survey - 6202.0 Labour Force, Australia - published by the ABS 11/03/2004 included revised population benchmarks from the 2001 Census. The ABS revise the population benchmarks used in the Labour Force Survey every five years following the Census of Population and Housing.

Roy Morgan Research population estimates are calculated on trends in ABS published Statistical Local Area (SLA) population estimates, supported by other ABS published information including the Labour Force Survey. We have carefully reviewed the revised population estimates and will be incorporating changes resulting from the ABS revision into the February 2004 processing of Roy Morgan Single Source.

In incorporating the population benchmarks from the February 2004 Labour Force Survey, we can report that the new national population estimate for people 14+ has reduced by 49,800 from 16,302,000 people in January 2004 to 16,252,000, down 0.3%.

Roy Morgan Research will not be revising already published figures. These changes will have only a minimal initial impact - two months out of twelve in the next quarterly report will mean a year-average population change of 0.05%. There will then be a progressive - but still small - effect as an increasing proportion of the 'latest twelve months' is based on the new figures.

Male population benchmarks have been revised downward by approximately 54,400 men to 7,990,000 (down 0.7%) with the female population rising 4,600 to 8,262,000 (up 0.1%). Benchmarks for older age groups have generally increased with the Age 50 and over group increasing by approximately 90,000 people (up 1.5%) and the under 50 group decreasing by approximately 140,000 people (down 1.3%).

At a capital city level there are some instances of larger changes reflecting differences between the ABS estimated population growth for the city and the actual growth. Population benchmarks for Melbourne and Sydney have decreased by 78,200 (down 2.6%) and 51,200 (down 1.5%) respectively.

In New South Wales the decrease of 51,200 in Sydney has been offset by an increase of 62,400 (up 2.8%) in the remainder of the State (including the ACT) for an overall increase of 11,200 (up 0.2%). However, in Victoria, an increase of 24,500 (up 2.3%) for the rest of the state has only partially offset the decrease in Melbourne with the State 14+ population now 4,060,200 (down 1.3%).

These new projections apply to Roy Morgan Single Source data relating to February 2004 and later months.

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