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July 2010

Summary

Newly revised population adjustments from the ABS will be incorporated by Roy Morgan Research in data from July 2010 onwards.

Some population differences are noticeable and will result in changes to estimates of readership, product consumption and other data.

Previously released data will not be amended. Phasing in of the new ABS population changes will minimise their impact.

Most noticeable population changes have occurred with:

• Increases in Brisbane, Sydney, Victoria Country and the total population.
• Small decrease in South Australia Country.

Application of the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Labour Force Survey population adjustments to Roy Morgan Research Single Source Weighting Background:

The July 2010 edition of the Labour Force Survey - 6202.0 Labour Force, Australia - published by the ABS 19/08/2010 included revised population benchmarks from the 2006 Census; incorporating revisions made to Net Overseas Migration estimates in the September 2008 and September 2009 issues of Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0). The ABS normally revises the population benchmarks used in the Labour Force Survey every five years following the Census of Population and Housing.

Roy Morgan Research population estimates are calculated on trends in ABS published Statistical Local Area (SLA) population estimates, supported by other ABS published information including the Labour Force Survey. We have carefully reviewed the revised population estimates and will be incorporating changes resulting from the ABS revision into the July 2010 processing of Roy Morgan Single Source.

In incorporating the revised population benchmarks from the Labour Force Survey, we can report that the new national population estimate for people 14+ has increased by 178,200 from 18,187,900 people in June 2010 to 18,366,100 in July 2010, up 1%.

These changes will have only a minimal initial impact as only three months out of twelve in the next quarterly release will be weighted according to the revised figures. There will then be a progressive - but still small - effect as an increasing proportion of the 'latest twelve months' is based on the new figures.

Male population benchmarks have been revised upward by 91,900 men to 9,070,400 (up 1%) with the female population rising 86,300 to 9,295,700 (up 0.9%). Benchmarks for younger age groups have generally increased with the 14-24 and 25-34 age groups combining for an increase of 124,500 people (up 1.9%).

At a capital city level there are some instances of larger changes reflecting differences between the ABS estimated population growth for the city and the actual growth. Population benchmarks for Brisbane and Sydney have increased by 27,800 (up 1.7%) and 44,000 (up 1.1%) respectively.

In Victoria the population of the remainder of the State increased by 32,000 (up 2.7%) for an overall increase of 1.1% for Victoria, after Melbourne increased by 17,500 (up 0.5%). In South Australia the population of the remainder of the State decreased by 700 (down 0.2%) for an overall increase of 0.5% in South Australia, after Adelaide increased by 7,700, to 1,010,600 (up 0.8%).

These new projections apply to Roy Morgan Single Source data relating to July 2010 and later months.

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