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Application of the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) 2001 Census Population estimates to Roy Morgan Research Single Source Weighting

Roy Morgan Research population estimates are calculated on trends in ABS published Statistical Local Area (SLA) population estimates, supported by other ABS published information. These ABS small-area estimates are revised when results from a new Census become available.

In moving to population projections based on Census 2001, we can report that the new population estimates for all Capital City and Rest of State groupings are in-line with previous estimates. Overall, there is a high positive correlation (+0.71) between the ABS’s progressive estimates of the growth rate and the actual growth rate as shown by the Censuses.

At a local level, eg within city, there are some instances of larger changes reflecting differences between the ABS estimated population growth for the area and the actual growth.

A review of the major demographics used in the survey shows that at a national level for the 12 months to December 2002, all changes were within ±0.1%. For example, the figure for December 2002 for the percentage of people who have a Diploma or Degree was reported as 26.7% of the 14+ population but would have been 26.6% if information could have been projected to data from the new Census.

These new projections will be phased in with each quarterly release of data thereby minimizing the impact of any cases where there are differences. The new projections will apply to data from April 2003 onwards.

 

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