Finding No. 3435 -
Published exclusively in The Bulletin, cover date September 11, 2001:
September 11, 2001
The Federal Coalition Government fell further behind the ALP Opposition on a two-party preferred basis as the Liberal Party became embroiled in allegations of GST tax fraud at branch level, The Bulletin-Morgan Poll finds.
Primary support for the L-NP Coalition was 34.5% (down 0.5%), nine percentage points behind the ALP (43.5%, up 2.5%). Within the Federal Coalition, Liberal Party support was 31.5% (down 0.5%) while National Party support was steady at 3%.
Support for the Australian Democrats slipped to 7.5% (down 1%). Support for The Greens was steady at 5%, support for Pauline Hanson's One Nation Party was down 1% to 4.5%, and support for Other Parties and Independent Candidates was steady at 5%.
On a two-party preferred basis, the ALP leads by 14 percentage points. Support for the ALP was 57% (up 1.5%), with support for the L-NP Coalition at 43% (down 1.5%). If a Federal election had been held in late August the Federal Opposition would have won a landslide victory.
During the period of the poll:
Federal Treasurer Mr Peter Costello came under pressure from the Opposition after leaked documents allegedly showed that Small Business Minister Mr Ian Macfarlane's local electoral council improperly claimed a reimbursement of $826.41 from the GST. The ALP accused the Federal Treasurer of turning a blind eye to the incident, the Shadow Treasurer Mr Simon Crean describing it as: "& a fraud done under the nose of the Treasurer."
The Federal Opposition Leader, Mr Kim Beazley, also came under attack following claims he told caucus that a public hospital had turned away his daughter, Ms Hannah Beazley. Ms Beazley later admitted she had discharged herself from the hospital to go to a private hospital to be operated on earlier. Mr Costello said the Opposition Leader had used his daughter for a political stunt.
Immigration Minister Mr Philip Ruddock announced that the Federal Government would build three temporary detention centres, doubling Australia's ability to house illegal immigrants. The announcement coincided with reports that more illegal immigrants would arrive soon.
The Prime Minister Mr John Howard confirmed he believed that homosexual couples should not be allowed to marry. Mr Howard said that homosexuals should not be discriminated against but they are not entitled to the "whole hog" either. Mr Howard made the statements during a Triple J radio segment covering youth issues.
Preferences of all minor parties favoured the ALP. Preferences of supporters of The Greens (ALP - 75% cf L-NP - 25%) most strongly favoured the ALP, followed by those of Australian Democrats supporters (ALP - 74% cf L-NP - 26%), Other Parties and Independent Candidates supporters (ALP - 55.5% cf L-NP - 44.5%) and Pauline Hanson's One Nation Party (ALP - 51% cf L-NP - 49%).
This latest Bulletin-Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted
face-to-face on August 18/19 and August 25/26, 2001 with an Australia-wide cross-section
of 1,991 electors. Electors were asked: "If a Federal election for the
House of Representatives were being held today - which Party would receive your
first preference?" Of all electors surveyed 2.5% (unchanged) were undecided
on voting intention.
Who Electors Think Will Win
Electors were asked: "Who do you think will win at the next Federal election?"
Think Will Win Next Federal Election
June 9/10 &
June 16/17, 2001
June 23/24 &
June 30/ July 1, 2001
July 7/8 &
July 14/15, 2001
July 21/22 &
July 28/29, 2001
Aug 4/5 &
Aug 11/12, 2001
Aug 18/19 &
Aug 25/26, 2001
%
%
%
%
%
%
L-NP
25
26.5
28.5
34.5
35
32.5
ALP
64.5
62.5
57.5
52
52
54.5
Can't say
10.5
11
14
13.5
13
13
100
100
100
100
100
100
The majority of electors (54.5%) think
the ALP will win the next Federal election while 32.5% think the L-NP
Coalition will win another term.
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
PRIMARY VOTE
L-NP
ALP
Aust. Dem.
The Greens
P.Hanson One Nation
Ind./ Others
Election March 13, 1993
44.3
44.9
3.7
1.6
N/A
5.5
Election March 2, 1996
47.3 (8.6)
38.8
6.8
1.7
N/A
5.4
Election October 3, 19981
39.5 (5.3)
40.1
5.1
2.1
8.5
4.7
MORGAN POLL
July 7/8 & July 14/15
35 (2)
43
7.5
4.5
5
5
July 21/22 & July 28/29
35.5 (2)
42
9
4
5
4.5
August 4/5 & August 11/12
35 (3)
41
8.5
5
5.5
5
August 18/19 & August 25/26
34.5 (3)
43.5
7.5
5
4.5
5
Note: National Party results are in brackets
1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated
to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary
election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate
of Newcastle.
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE
L-NP
ALP
Election March 13, 1993
48.6
51.4
Election March 2, 1996
53.6
46.4
Election October 3, 19982
48.9
51.1
MORGAN POLL
July 7/8 & July 14/15
45
55
July 21/22 & July 28/29
43.5
56.5
August 4/5 & August 11/12
44.5
55.5
August 18/19 & August 25/26
43
57
2 For the October 3, 1998
Federal election the L-NP didn't contest the Newcastle supplementary election.
For Newcastle the L-NP "two-Party" estimate includes those who
didn't vote ALP or give their preference to the ALP. If the Newcastle
two-Party preferred vote for the October 3, 1998 election is excluded
the Australia-wide "two-Party" preferred vote is L-NP - 49.0%
cf ALP - 51.0%
TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES
July 7/8 & July 14/15, 2001
July 21/22 & July 28/29, 2001
August 4/5 & August 11/12, 2001
August 18/19 & August 25/26, 2001
L-NP
ALP
L-NP
ALP
L-NP
ALP
L-NP
ALP
MORGAN POLL
Pauline Hanson One Nation
58.5
41.5
49
51
40.5
59.5
49
51
Australian Democrats
45
55
30
70
33
67
26
74
The Greens
19
81
19.5
80.5
30.5
69.5
25
75
Independent/Other
47
53
44
56
48
52
44.5
55.5
Sample: 1,991
Interviewed: Face-to-face on August 18/19 & August 25/26, 2001.
2.5% (unchanged) undecided
Federal Voting Intention Trend
PRIMARY VOTE
L-NP
ALP
Aust. Dem.
The Greens
P.Hanson One Nation
Ind./ Others
Election March 13, 1993
44.3
44.9
3.7
1.6
N/A
5.5
Election March 2, 1996
47.3 (8.6)
38.8
6.8
1.7
N/A
5.4
Election October 3, 19981
39.5 (5.3)
40.1
5.1
2.1
8.5
4.7
MORGAN POLLS
1998
October 10/11 & 17/18
40.5 (5)
41
9
2.5
5.5
1.5
October 24/25 & Oct.31/Nov 1
38 (4)
43.5
7.5
2.5
6
2.5
November 7/8 & 14/15
41 (4)
42.5
6.5
2.5
5
2.5
November 21/22 & 28/29
38 (4)
44.5
7
2
5.5
3
December 5/6 & 12/13
41 (4.5)
41.5
6.5
3.5
6
1.5
December 5/6 & 12/13
41 (4.5)
41.5
6.5
3.5
6
1.5
1999
January 9/10 & 16/17
39.5 (4.5)
43.5
7.5
2
5
2.5
January 23/24 & 30/31
40 (4.5)
43.5
6
2.5
5.5
2.5
February 6/7 & 13/14
42 (4)
42
7.5
3
3
2.5
February 20/21 & 27/28
42 (4.5)
41
7
3
4.5
2.5
March 6/7 & 13/14
37.5 (5)
43.5
6.5
3.5
5
4
March 20/21 & 27/28
39.5 (4.5)
43.5
7.5
2
4.5
3
April 3/ 4 & 10/11
38 (4.5)
43
7.5
3
6
2.5
April 17/18 & 24/25
38 (4.5)
45
5.5
3
5.5
3
May 1/ 2 & 8/9
37.5 (4)
45.5
7
2.5
5
2.5
May 15/16 & 22/23
37.5 (4)
43.5
7.5
3.5
4.5
3.5
May 29/30 & June 5/6
40 (4.5)
42
7
3.5
4.5
3
June 12/13 & 19/20
38.5 (3.5)
44.5
6.5
3
4.5
3
June 26/27 & July 3/4
40.5 (6.5)
43
6.5
4.5
3.5
2
July 10/11 & 17/18
41 (4.5)
41
6.5
4
5
2.5
July 24/25 & July 31/Aug 1
40 (4)
43
7
3
4.5
2.5
August 7/8 & 14/15
42 (4.5)
40.5
7.5
3.5
4
2.5
August 21/22 & 28/29
40 (4)
44.5
6.5
2.5
4
2.5
September 4/5 & 11/12
40 (4)
41
7
2.5
4
5.5
September 18/19 & 25/26
39.5 (3.5)
41
6.5
4
4.5
4.5
October 2/3 & 9/10
39.5 (3.5)
41.5
7.5
3
4
4.5
October 16/17 & 23/24
40 (3)
42
5
3.5
3.5
6
October 30/31 & Nov 6/7
40.5 (3.5)
42
6.5
2.5
3.5
5
November 13/14 & 20/21
39.5 (3.5)
42.5
6.5
2.5
4.5
4.5
Nov 27/28 & December 4/5
41.5 (3)
44
5.5
2.5
3
3.5
December 11/12 & 18/19
37.5 (3.5)
44.5
6
4
4
4
2000
January 8/9 & 15/16, 2000
38 (4)
46
5.5
3
3.5
4
January 22/23 & 29/30
37.5 (4)
47
5.5
3
3.5
3.5
February 5/6 & 12/13
36 (3.5)
46
5.5
3.5
3.5
5.5
February 19/20
36.5 (3.5)
46.5
5
3
3.5
5.5
February 26/27
38 (5)
45
5
3.5
3
5.5
March 4/5 & 11/12
37 (4.5)
46
5.5
3.5
2.5
5.5
March 18/19 & 25/26
37.5 (3.5)
43
5.5
3.5
4
6.5
April 1/ 2 & 8/9
36 (3)
46
6.5
3.5
3
5
April 15/16 & 22/23
36.5 (3.5)
45
5
3.5
4.5
5.5
April 29/30 & May 6/7
35 (3.5)
46
6
3.5
4.5
5
May 13/14 & 20/21
35 (3)
45.5
5.5
4
4.5
5.5
May 27/28 & June 3/ 4
34.5 (3)
46.5
5.5
4
4
5.5
June 10/11 & June 17/18
33.5 (3.5)
48.5
5.5
3
4.5
5
June 24/25 & July 1/2
33 (3.5)
45
6
4
4.5
7.5
July 8/9
36.5 (3)
45
5.5
3.5
3.5
6
July 15/16
40 (4.5)
43
4.5
4.5
3
5
July 22/23 & July 29/30
37.5 (4.5)
45
5.5
3
3.5
5.5
August 5/6 & 12/13
41.5 (3.5)
41.5
5
3.5
3.5
5
August 19/20 & 26/27
37 (3)
43
6
3.5
5
5.5
September 2/3 & 9/10
36.5 (3.5)
46.5
4
3.5
3.5
6
September 16/17 & 23/24
38.5 (3.5)
44
6.5
3.5
3
4.5
Sept 30/Oct 1 & October 7/8
37 (3.5)
46.5
5
2
3
6.5
October 14/15 & 21/22
36 (3.5)
44.5
6
3
3
7.5
October 28/29 & November 4/5
35 (3)
45.5
5.5
4.5
4
5.5
November 11/12 & 18/19
37 (3.5)
44.5
6.5
3.5
3
5.5
November 25/26 & December 2/3
38 (3)
44
6.5
3.5
3.5
4.5
December 9/10 & 16/17
37.5 (3)
45
4.5
3
3.5
6.5
2001
January 6/7 & 13/14
36 (3.5)
47.5
5.5
3.5
3
4.5
January 20/21 & 27/28
39.5 (3.5)
42.5
5.5
5
3
4.5
February 3/4 & 10/11
35.5(4)
43.5
6
3.5
5.5
6
February 17/18 & 24/25
30(3)
48.5
5
4.5
7.5
4.5
March 3/4 & 10/11
29.5 (3)
46.5
5.5
4.5
7
7
March 17/18 & 24/25
32 (2.5)
47.5
5
3.5
7.5
4.5
March 31/April 1 & April 7/8
31 (3)
44.5
6.5
5
7
6
April 14/15 & 21/22
32 (2.5)
44.5
10
4
5.5
4
April 28/29 & May 5/6
31.5 (3)
43.5
9
4.5
6
5.5
May 12/13 & 19/20
30.5(3)
46.5
8
4.5
5.5
5
May 26/27
33(2.5)
44
8.5
4.5
3.5
6.5
June 2/3
30.5(2.5)
45.5
8
4
6
6
June 9/10 & 16/17
34.5(3)
44.5
6.5
5.5
4
5
June 23/24 & June 30/July 1
36 (3.5)
44.5
6.5
4.5
4.5
4
July 7/8 & July 14/15
35 (2)
43
7.5
4.5
5
5
July 21/22 & July 28/29
35.5 (2)
42
9
4
5
4.5
August 4/5 & August 11/12
35 (3)
41
8.5
5
5.5
5
August 18/19 & August 25/26
34.5 (3)
43.5
7.5
5
4.5
5
Note: National Party results are in brackets
1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated
to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary
election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate
of Newcastle.
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE
L-NP
ALP
Election March 13, 1993
48.6
51.4
Election March 2, 1996
53.6
46.4
Election October 3, 19982
48.9
51.1
MORGAN POLL
1998
October 10/11 & 17/18
49
51
October 24/25 & Oct. 31/Nov. 1
45.5
54.5
November 7/8 & 14/15
47.5
52.5
November 21/22 & 28/29
45
55
December 5/6 & 12/13
48
52
1999
January 9/10 & 16/17
46
54
January 23/24 & 30/31
46.5
53.5
February 6/7 & 13/14
48
52
February 20/21 & 27/28
49
51
March 6/7 & 13/14
44.5
55.5
March 20/21 & 27/28
46
54
April 3/4 & 10/11
45
55
April 17/18 & 24/25
45
55
May 1/2 & 8/9
43.5
56.5
May 15/16 & 22/23
46
54
May 29/30 & June 5/6
48
52
June 12/13 & 19/20
45.5
54.5
June 26/27 & July 3/4
46.5
53.5
July 10/11 & 17/18
48.5
51.5
July 24/25 & July 31/August 1
46.5
53.5
August 7/8 & 14/15
49.5
50.5
August 21/22 & 28/29
45.5
54.5
September 4/5 & 11/12
48.5
51.5
September 18/19 & 25/26
47.5
52.5
October 2/3 & 9/10
48.5
51.5
October 16/17 & 23/24
47
53
October 30/31 & Nov 6/7
49
51
November 13/14 & 20/21
46.5
53.5
Nov 27/28 & December 4/5
47.5
52.5
December 11/12 & 18/19
44.5
55.5
2000
January 8/9 & 15/16, 2000
44
56
January 22/23 & 29/30
43.5
56.5
February 5/6 & 12/13
42.5
57.5
February 19/20
43.5
56.5
February 26/27
45
55
March 4/5 & 11/12
43.5
56.5
March 18/19 & 25/26
45.5
54.5
April 1/2 & 8/9
43
57
April 15/16 & 22/23
43.5
56.5
April 29/30 & May 6/7
42.5
57.5
May 13/14 & 20/21
42.5
57.5
May 27/28 & June 3/ 4
41.5
58.5
June 10/11 & June 17/18
40
60
June 24/25 & July 1/2
41.5
58.5
July 8/9
44.5
55.5
July 15/16
46
54
July 22/23 & July 29/30
44.5
55.5
August 5/6 & August 12/13
48
52
August 19/20 & 26/27
45
55
September 2/3 & 9/10
43.5
56.5
September 16/17 & 23/24
44
56
Sept 30/Oct 1 & October 7/8
43.5
56.5
October 14/15 & 21/22
43
57
October 28/29 & November 4/5
42.5
57.5
November 11/12 & 18/19
44.5
55.5
November 25/26 & December 2/3
45
55
December 9/10 & December 16/17
44
56
2001
January 6/7 & 13/14
42.5
57.5
January 20/21 & 27/28
46
54
February 3/4 & 10/11
43
57
February 17/18 & 24/25
37
63
March 3/4 & 10/11
38.5
61.5
March 17/18 & 24/25
40
60
March 31/April 1 & April 7/8
40.5
59.5
April 14/15 & 21/22
40.5
59.5
April 28/29 & May 5/6
40.5
59.5
May 12/13 & 19/20
39
61
May 26/27
43
57
June 2/3
40
60
June 9/10 & 16/17
43
57
June 23/24 & June 30/July 1
43.5
56.5
July 7/8 & July 14/15
45
55
July 21/22 & 28/29
43.5
56.5
August 4/5 & August 11/12
44.5
55.5
August 18/19 & August 25/26
43
57
2 For the October 3, 1998
Federal election the L-NP didn't contest the Newcastle supplementary election.
For Newcastle the L-NP "two-Party" estimate includes those who
didn't vote ALP or give their preference to the ALP. If the Newcastle
two-Party preferred vote for the October 3, 1998 election is excluded
the Australia-wide "two-Party" preferred vote is L-NP - 49.0%
cf ALP - 51.0%.
Finding No. 3435 is taken from Computer Report No. 1756
