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Bulletin-Morgan Poll taken a week before the Federal Election showed the ALP in a winning position, with a 9% lead on a two party preferred basis. (The Primary vote was ALP 43.5%, L-NP 38.5%, Australian Democrats 6.5%, The Greens 4.5%, Pauline Hanson's One Nation Party 2.5%, and Other Parties and Independents 4.5%). On Election day the L-NP was returned to Government with an increased majority.

The obvious question is did The Bulletin-Morgan Poll get it wrong, or did the electorate change its mind? The answer has ramifications far beyond the reputation of The Bulletin-Morgan Poll.

Polls can only measure the electorate's view when the poll is taken. So it is crucial to look at the poll taken on Election Day. The Bulletin-Morgan Poll taken on Election Day# using the same face-to-face methodology as throughout the year, and throughout the election campaign, measured the L-NP win. Support for the L-NP was 42.5%, ALP was 36.5%, Australian Democrats 7.5%, The Greens 6.5%, Pauline Hanson's One Nation Party 3.5%, and Independents and Others 3.5%. (see table below).

Because of this, we conclude/believe the electorate changed in the last week of the campaign.

To demonstrate the validity of this conclusion (or test this belief from another perspective) The Bulletin-Morgan Poll reinterviewed 390 electors who had intended to vote ALP a week before the election and found 20% decided their vote within the last few days of the election, and 19% did not vote ALP, or wouldn't say how they had voted.

When asked after the election how they had actually voted, 15% of those intending ALP voters said they had voted for another party, 6% voted Liberal or National, 1.5 % Australian Democrat, 3% The Greens, 2% Pauline Hanson's One Nation Party, 2.5% Others/Independent. Four percent did not say how they had voted.

One-in-five intending ALP voters said they decided on their vote in the last few days of the election : 5% said they decided in the booth on Saturday , 6% on the Saturday before they went to vote , and 9% in the last few days before the election.

Those intending to vote Labor a week before the election who actually voted for The Greens or Australian Democrats were clear in their change being due to the major parties' response to boat people. They made such comments as:

"Because of their stance on the asylum seekers... because it was hard to distinguish ALP from Liberal Policy."

"All my life I have always voted for Labor, for 50 years, I thought Labor wasn't doing the right thing...they're gutless...why would they follow the Liberal policy on the boat people, the war and all that... They should have stuck with their own ideas."

"Because I thought their stand on humanitarian issues was better than Labor; they seemed to be more progressive than Labor was."

"Both parties were a very uncaring, inhumane party."

"I was unhappy with both the major parties, on the Tampa issue, the war on terrorism."

"Labor and Liberals should be shot; I'm sick of it."

"I was so pissed off at the racism of the two major parties."

"Register my protest to Labor who got second preferences."

"The environmental issue, it needed a moderating voice."

Those Labor intenders who changed to Liberal in the last week, did not specifically mention boat people. Indeed they sounded more like Liberal voters who had come back to the Liberal Party.

They made positive comments about Liberal policies.

"I like their policies."

"They look after the interests of business people."

"Because they are all experienced people, they have shown what they can do."

"I think John Howard is doing a pretty god job. The last three or four years in office he's done okay."

"Just like the people in the Liberals."

"I like Howard."

"Libs are good with retirees."

These are typical of the reasons Liberal Party supporters gave for voting Liberal.

Some made comments about Labor/Beazley's policies either specifically on Aboriginal people or more generally.

"I didn't want us to say sorry to the Aboriginals."

"I didn't agree with Beazley's stated policies."

"Labor was going to cut jobs at my partner's work."

" Didn't believe international issues were applicable"

The other theme to emerge was the feeling that now was not a good time for change.

"Just didn't think we were ready for change."

"And it is not time for changes."

"Better the devil you know."

Those who switched to Pauline Hanson's One Nation Party also sounded more like One Nation supporters who had supported the ALP but gone back to One Nation. They made comments like:

"I didn't want to vote Labor or Liberal, I changed my mind."

"I voted for them in the State election in January last year, voted for them in the last two elections in WA. Just thought I'd stick with the same mob."

"I think she has the right idea but no one wants to listen to what she has to say... People have their heads in the sand... She says what everyone feels the other politicians aren't game enough to say it because they are worried about votes."

"I don't like Howard or Beazley. Neither of them are any good."

"Liberal and Labor promise all this crap and it never comes through. I like Pauline Hanson."

Gary Morgan says:

"We had no idea the vote could change as much as it did in a week - a five point swing on a two-party basis, or a loss of 5 points away from the ALP. In hindsight the clues were in our own polls:

• Firstly, the trends showed the impact the Tampa refugee crisis and the War on Terrorism could have on the vote. Until then the ALP was ahead in The Bulletin -Morgan Poll since the last election. The first change came in our poll in early September " Refugee crisis throws Federal Government Lifeline" when Mr Howard took a tough stand on illegal immigrants. On September 1/2 primary support for the L-NP leapt 5% to 39.5% to lead the ALP on 39%. On a two-party preferred basis the ALP lead dropped 10 points to just 4 points (ALP 52%, L-NP 48%). The Bulletin-Morgan Poll on refugee boat people showed the strength of Australia's feeling on this issue. Only 20% of people said "accept the refugees", 65% said "put them back to sea", and 12% were undecided. The majority (65%) considered the Government to be doing a good job handling the refugee problem, and 70% approved of the way Mr Howard was handling the problem.

  By mid-October, after the September 11 attack on the World Trade Centre, the US bombing on Afghanistan, Mr Howard committing troops, and amidst dramatic media coverage of asylum seekers supposedly throwing their children overboard and the Federal election being called, The Bulletin-Morgan Poll conducted October 13/14 had the L-NP ahead of the ALP by 10 points (L-NP 55%, ALP 45%).

  During this shift a special Bulletin-Morgan Qualitative Survey was being conducted. It reported "The Howard Coalition Government's electoral fortunes can be directly attributed to the Federal Government's stand on illegal immigrants and the Prime Minister's reaction to terrorist strikes in the US". Comments from L-NP voters as to why they voted that way included: "Howard was strong over boat people"; "I like their stand over recent immigration problems", "I liked the way the Tampa boat issue was handled". However that qualitative survey also raised the concern for the Government of the GST, and people's continued opposition to it.

  The following weekend after the Sunday night debate, saw the ALP regain their lead on a two-party basis (ALP 51.5% L-NP 48.5%) according to the Bulletin-Morgan Poll conducted October 20/21. I said at the time " The Roy Morgan worm clearly showed the real problem for Mr Howard remains the GST. In the debate when he mentioned the GST the reaction changed! In the midst of the US War on Terrorism, the GST was no longer top of mind for the uncommitted voters. However when reminded of the GST their dislike and anger was easily rekindled"

  During the last few days before the election, the discussion over the refugee boat people, people being killed when a boat was set alight, and debate over whether or not children were thrown overboard brought the refugee problem back onto the nation's agenda and along with it all the fears about our national security, border protection and unemployment.

  While the debate was over refugee boat people - the GST, Education, Health, Aged Care and even Economic Management and Unemployment were not on the agenda. Support firmed for the Howard Government which went on to win the election with "the greatest two party swing since 1966" when Harold Holt called the election to obtain a mandate to send troops to Vietnam.

• Secondly, the difference between our "face-to-face" poll and our own telephone polls taken at the same time immediately after September 11 should have alerted us to the inherent instability of the electorate in this election campaign. Our own telephone polls were wildly different from our face-to-face polls.

Although we have always believed the face-to-face polling method to be more accurate than telephone polling, the Bulletin-Morgan Poll has usually used telephone polling to gauge any change in the electorate in the last week. However in this Federal election, because our telephone polls, like other polls, were so very different from our face-to-face poll, we did not believe that conducting telephone polls in the last few days before the election would give any valuable indication of a move in the electorate.

If we believe the trend suggested by the telephone Morgan Polls then we believe that from October 27/28, two weeks before the election, the L-NP lost ground to the ALP right up until the election. If we believe the "face-to-face" Morgan Polls, then the trend suggests that the L-NP was behind the ALP immediately after the debate until the weekend before the election, and then gained significant ground in the last few days.

Perhaps we should have simply published both telephone and face-to-face polls - a bet both ways so to speak. However, we did not even consider publishing conflicting polls - unlike Newspoll .On Election Day The Weekend Australian published the final Newspoll showing a swing to the L-NP nationally indicating a L-NP landslide, and a swing to the ALP in the marginal seats. Newspoll's marginal seat poll has conveniently been forgotten!

Finally, if as we believe the electorate changed in the last week, this has major ramifications - but these will be explored by others, such as Laurie Oakes did in last week's Bulletin (November 20 issue), Philip Adams in the last Saturday's Weekend Australian (November 17) and Mike Steketee in Monday's The Australian (November 19). Obviously such commentators agree with our finding that the electorate changed in the last week - otherwise their articles on border protection have little meaning."

Morgan Poll Accuracy Record 1998-2001

Morgan Poll Most Accurate In Predicting Aston By-election Result
Finding No 3422

The Bulletin-Morgan Poll Most Accurate In Predicting Ryan By-election Result
Finding No 3392

The Bulletin-Morgan Poll Most Accurate In Predicting Frankston East Supplementary Election (Finding No 3248)

Accuracy of Polls - 1999 Victorian State Election (Finding No 3233)

The Bulletin Morgan Poll - The Authoritative Measure of the Electorate (NSW) (Finding No 3181)

Face-to-Face Morgan Poll Most Accurate (1998 Federal Election) (Finding No 3134)

Roy Morgan Poll Accurate in UK Election
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