Consumer Confidence Falls in December Following RBA's Second Rate Increase of 0.25%
| Article No. 289 -
December 19, 2003 |
The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating fell 3.8 points in December to 120.4, following the Reserve Bank's decision on December 3 to increase the Official Cash Rate to 5.25%. The December result is the lowest since March, but is only 0.5 points below the 2003 average (average over 12 months: 120.9) and is 17.5 points higher than the December average (average over 21 years: 102.9). Despite the fall, Consumer Confidence in Australia is still high.
The fall in Consumer Confidence in December was primarily driven by a large fall in the proportion of Australians who think that now is a good time to buy major household items, such as electrical appliances or furniture. Forty-seven percent (down 11%) of Australians say now is a good time to buy — the lowest level since March — while 20% (up 6%) say now is a bad time to buy major household items.
Both short- and long-term economic predictions were down slightly in December. Forty-one percent (down 1%) of Australians expect the nation to experience good economic conditions over the coming year and 21% (up 2%) expect bad economic times. Over the longer-term, 32% (down 4%) expect Australia to have good times financially over the next five years and 17% (unchanged) expect Australia to have bad times financially over the same period.
Australians' analysis of their personal financial situations was relatively stable in December. Thirty-four percent (unchanged) say their personal financial situation is better now than it was this time last year, with 25% (down 3%) saying they are now worse off. Looking ahead, 44% (unchanged) expect to be better off financially this time next year while 13% (down 2%) expect to be worse off.
The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,198 face-to-face interviews conducted Australia-wide on the weekends of December 6/7 & 13/14, 2003.
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office: (03) 9224 5213 Mobile: 0411 129 094 Home: (03) 9419 3242
|
Monthly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating Figures |
|
Year |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Yearly
Average |
|
1973 |
|
|
119.2 |
|
|
117.0 |
|
|
108.4 |
|
|
103.8 |
112.1 |
|
1974 |
|
|
103.2 |
|
|
95.6 |
|
|
90.6 |
|
|
92.2 |
95.4 |
|
1975 |
|
|
114.0 |
|
|
104.2 |
|
|
100.8 |
|
|
103.0 |
105.5 |
|
1976 |
113.6 |
|
107.0 |
110.2 |
|
107.0 |
105.6 |
|
108.0 |
108.8 |
101.2 |
|
107.7 |
|
1977 |
104.2 |
|
98.6 |
101.6 |
|
103.8 |
99.4 |
|
105.0 |
104.4 |
109.4 |
|
103.3 |
|
1978 |
119.2 |
|
114.8 |
110.8 |
|
109.6 |
101.6 |
|
91.2 |
104.4 |
103.6 |
|
106.9 |
|
1979 |
110.2 |
|
106.2 |
109.4 |
|
92.6 |
90.2 |
|
99.4 |
97.6 |
98.8 |
|
100.6 |
|
1980 |
98.8 |
|
100.8 |
97.4 |
|
101.6 |
98.2 |
|
104.4 |
109.8 |
106.4 |
|
102.2 |
|
1981 |
113.4 |
|
111.8 |
101.8 |
|
100.8 |
95.0 |
|
92.4 |
98.2 |
98.0 |
|
101.4 |
|
1982 |
92.4 |
|
91.8 |
93.6 |
|
92.2 |
80.4 |
|
84.6 |
81.2 |
75.2 |
|
86.4 |
|
1983 |
87.8 |
|
97.4 |
96.0 |
|
95.4 |
98.2 |
|
100.6 |
106.4 |
113.2 |
|
99.4 |
|
1984 |
124.6 |
|
120.8 |
120.8 |
|
115.6 |
116.6 |
|
118.2 |
117.8 |
114.6 |
|
118.6 |
|
1985 |
114.8 |
|
110.2 |
99.4 |
|
98.0 |
100.8 |
|
106.8 |
107.8 |
94.8 |
|
104.1 |
|
1986 |
105.4 |
|
103.8 |
94.6 |
94.8 |
91.6 |
79.8 |
79.8 |
78.8 |
89.8 |
85.6 |
88.8 |
90.3 |
|
1987 |
90.4 |
88.0 |
86.8 |
90.8 |
91.8 |
93.4 |
98.6 |
96.4 |
94.8 |
104.0 |
87.2 |
93.0 |
92.9 |
|
1988 |
100.4 |
98.8 |
103.6 |
106.2 |
104.0 |
104.0 |
107.6 |
108.2 |
112.4 |
108.8 |
104.2 |
105.8 |
105.3 |
|
1989 |
105.0 |
94.6 |
88.4 |
88.4 |
87.4 |
72.8 |
73.0 |
78.8 |
82.0 |
79.0 |
81.0 |
80.0 |
84.2 |
|
1990 |
101.6 |
95.6 |
83.4 |
88.3 |
84.7 |
83.1 |
79.6 |
83.9 |
75.6 |
71.4 |
73.1 |
71.3 |
82.6 |
|
1991 |
78.5 |
85.4 |
85.0 |
87.2 |
87.7 |
88.6 |
98.1 |
95.2 |
93.3 |
95.8 |
91.1 |
83.0 |
89.1 |
|
1992 |
93.6 |
95.9 |
96.2 |
105.4 |
101.6 |
97.7 |
95.4 |
96.9 |
96.8 |
101.2 |
93.6 |
92.9 |
97.3 |
|
1993 |
100.8 |
100.4 |
105.9 |
102.3 |
102.2 |
96.2 |
96.6 |
100.8 |
90.2 |
103.5 |
111.9 |
108.5 |
101.6 |
|
1994 |
120.5 |
127.5 |
125.7 |
127.7 |
125.2 |
128.0 |
127.6 |
123.8 |
123.6 |
124.6 |
118.1 |
118.0 |
124.2 |
|
1995 |
112.3 |
112.4 |
113.9 |
114.7 |
112.0 |
112.4 |
110.2 |
115.5 |
111.7 |
116.2 |
114.3 |
111.9 |
113.1 |
|
1996 |
116.7 |
119.1 |
123.7 |
121.5 |
118.8 |
117.8 |
112.3 |
114.4 |
113.2 |
111.3 |
113.4 |
113.2 |
116.3 |
|
1997 |
119.2 |
115.1 |
116.2 |
112.5 |
114.2 |
115.5 |
110.7 |
111.7 |
112.4 |
112.8 |
111.6 |
110.6 |
113.5 |
|
1998 |
117.8 |
116.0 |
114.9 |
110.2 |
114.4 |
109.8 |
107.6 |
111.1 |
111.0 |
113.9 |
114.2 |
114.7 |
112.8 |
|
1999 |
122.1 |
121.8 |
122.5 |
119.6 |
122.5 |
122.2 |
118.2 |
122.8 |
122.3 |
119.6 |
122.8 |
122.2 |
121.6 |
|
2000 |
122.3 |
119.9 |
112.9 |
116.6 |
112.0 |
108.7 |
114.8 |
119.1 |
115.8 |
115.6 |
110.3 |
112.3 |
115.0 |
|
2001 |
119.9 |
109.5 |
106.2 |
103.6 |
107.4 |
108.6 |
115.3 |
116.4 |
120.9* |
106.8 |
109.4 |
113.3 |
111.4 |
|
2002 |
124.8 |
123.0 |
122.3 |
123.2 |
124.0 |
116.4 |
123.4 |
119.9 |
122.1 |
117.2 |
114.0 |
109.6 |
120.0 |
|
2003 |
122.5 |
113.4 |
109.9 |
120.8 |
127.3 |
122.4 |
123.2 |
122.4 |
123.2 |
121.2 |
124.2 |
120.4 |
120.9 |
|
|
|
Monthly
Average |
109.0 |
108.0 |
106.5 |
106.2 |
107.3 |
104.0 |
102.8 |
106.5 |
103.6 |
105.3 |
103.4 |
102.9 |
105.4 |
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for September 15/16, 2001, conducted by telephone, was 102.3. |
Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating*
for the component questions over the more recent surveys are as follows: |
|
2002 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Interviews |
|
|
|
|
|
1152 |
1166 |
1037 |
1048 |
1122 |
|
|
|
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? |
|
Over the past year |
better off |
|
|
|
|
|
30 |
33 |
34 |
34 |
34 |
|
|
|
|
worse off |
|
|
|
|
|
31 |
28 |
30 |
28 |
30 |
|
|
|
QUESTION 1 difference |
|
|
|
|
|
-1 |
5 |
4 |
6 |
4 |
|
|
|
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now? |
|
|
better off |
|
|
|
|
|
43 |
45 |
42 |
45 |
43 |
|
|
|
|
worse off |
|
|
|
|
|
18 |
14 |
15 |
13 |
12 |
|
|
|
QUESTION 2 difference |
|
|
|
|
|
25 |
31 |
27 |
32 |
31 |
|
|
|
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in Australia as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we?ll
have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? |
|
|
good times |
|
|
|
|
|
37 |
36 |
33 |
36 |
29 |
|
|
|
|
bad times |
|
|
|
|
|
25 |
22 |
23 |
22 |
31 |
|
|
|
QUESTION 3 difference |
|
|
|
|
|
12 |
14 |
10 |
14 |
-2 |
|
|
|
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in Australia as a whole, we?ll have continuous good times
during the next 5 years of so> or we?ll have bad times> or some good and some bad? |
|
|
good times |
|
|
|
|
|
30 |
37 |
35 |
34 |
32 |
|
|
|
|
bad times |
|
|
|
|
|
20 |
16 |
18 |
16 |
20 |
|
|
|
QUESTION 4 difference |
|
|
|
|
|
10 |
21 |
17 |
18 |
12 |
|
|
|
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time> or a bad time> for people to buy major household times? |
|
|
good time to buy |
|
|
|
|
|
52 |
59 |
54 |
54 |
55 |
|
|
|
|
bad time to buy |
|
|
|
|
|
16 |
14 |
12 |
13 |
15 |
|
|
|
QUESTION 5 difference |
|
|
|
|
|
36 |
45 |
42 |
41 |
41 |
|
|
|
|
|
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating |
|
|
|
|
|
116.4 |
123.4 |
119.9 |
122.1 |
117.2 |
|
|
|
|
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give a favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.
|
Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating*
for the component questions over the more recent surveys are as follows: |
|
2003 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Interviews |
|
1253 |
1160 |
1425 |
1336 |
1167 |
971 |
1087 |
964 |
1116 |
1097 |
1198 |
|
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? |
|
Over the past year |
better off |
|
34 |
33 |
36 |
34 |
32 |
30 |
32 |
35 |
31 |
34 |
34 |
|
|
worse off |
|
28 |
32 |
28 |
28 |
26 |
33 |
28 |
24 |
31 |
28 |
25 |
|
QUESTION 1 difference |
|
6 |
1 |
8 |
6 |
6 |
-3 |
4 |
11 |
0 |
6 |
9 |
|
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now? |
|
|
better off |
|
45 |
45 |
45 |
46 |
41 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
40 |
44 |
44 |
|
|
worse off |
|
14 |
17 |
14 |
12 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
14 |
18 |
15 |
13 |
|
QUESTION 2 difference |
|
31 |
28 |
31 |
34 |
27 |
25 |
26 |
27 |
22 |
29 |
31 |
|
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in Australia as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we'll
have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? |
|
|
good times |
|
24 |
25 |
33 |
42 |
37 |
44 |
42 |
40 |
45 |
42 |
41 |
|
|
bad times |
|
37 |
41 |
27 |
18 |
20 |
20 |
22 |
19 |
21 |
19 |
21 |
|
QUESTION 3 difference |
|
-13 |
-16 |
6 |
24 |
17 |
24 |
20 |
21 |
24 |
23 |
20 |
|
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in Australia as a whole, we'll have continuous
good times during the next 5 years of so - or we'll have bad times - or some good and some bad? |
|
|
good times |
|
28 |
30 |
37 |
40 |
33 |
38 |
33 |
34 |
34 |
36 |
32 |
|
|
bad times |
|
22 |
24 |
16 |
12 |
16 |
16 |
18 |
17 |
21 |
17 |
17 |
|
QUESTION 4 difference |
|
6 |
6 |
21 |
28 |
17 |
22 |
15 |
17 |
13 |
19 |
15 |
|
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time - or a bad time - for people to buy major household times? |
|
|
good time to buy |
|
52 |
49 |
52 |
54 |
56 |
59 |
59 |
53 |
59 |
58 |
47 |
|
|
bad time to buy |
|
15 |
19 |
14 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
12 |
14 |
20 |
|
QUESTION 5 difference |
|
37 |
30 |
38 |
43 |
45 |
48 |
47 |
40 |
47 |
44 |
27 |
|
|
|
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating |
|
113.4 |
109.9 |
120.8 |
127.0 |
122.4 |
123.2 |
122.4 |
123.2 |
121.2 |
124.2 |
120.4 |
|
|
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give a favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions. |
The Morgan Poll is conducted by the
ONLY Australian or New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand
has this qualification.
|
