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| NEWS : Morgan Poll : | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Federal ALP Takes Lead as Anti-War Sentiment Grows
If a Federal election had been held in early March, the ALP would have won on minor party preferences, the latest Morgan Poll finds. Primary support for the ALP was up 4.5% to 40.5% with the L-NP down 4.5% to 39%. Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was a record high at 11% (up 0.5%), support for the Australian Democrats down 1% to 3.5%, One Nation unchanged at 1.5% and support for Other Parties and Independent Candidates up 0.5% to 5.5%. On a two-party preferred basis, ALP support was up 4.5% to 53.5% and L-NP support 46.5%. During the polling period:
Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research in which respondents give reason for their voting show the swing from the L-NP Coalition to Labor is strongly related to the impending war in Iraq, and Mr Howard’s stance on Australia’s involvement. Comments from non-Coalition supporters were strongly against the war, Howard’s stance on the war, and what they see as the Coalition war mongering and their war policies. "Very grave doubts about the Iraq policy." "I don’t want war." "War policies of the Liberals not socially united enough for me." "Because I don’t like the way Mr Howard has handled the current situation." "Howard’s determined to kill out kids." "Don’t like Howard’s opinion on war." "Unhappy with Howard – don’t want to be involved with war." " I don’t like the way Howard’s going about the war. He hasn’t really consulted the people, he’s just a puppet of America." "Because the current party in power is destroying the country and they have a war monger leader."
The important indicator "need for change" emerged fairly strongly in the comments of non-Coalition supporters. The need for a change of leadership predominantly focused on the leadership’s position on Iraq, and the way the current situation is being handled by Mr Howard, and to a lesser extent, the Coalition government. However some more broad based concerns of arrogance and complacency emerged as issues from the comments. "New change for leadership." "Libs been in too long, arrongant; like a change." "Time we had a new Government – other party been there too long – getting complacent." "Sick to death of what’s going on, present Government is totally out of step with the public." "I don’t believe in what John Howard’s doing. He’s very arrogant and does not listen." "See need to change." "Not happy with present Government." "Because the country needs a change of leadership." "Time for a change."
Although most comments were expressed as anti the Howard Government stance on war and Iraq, some people articulated a preference for the ALP’s approach and a desire to require UN sanction of any Australian involvement in a war in Iraq. "Iraq situation – prefer the ALP policy on Iraq." "ALP favour UN-sanctioned dealing with Iraq." "Social justice issues and anti-war stance appeals." "They want to go to the UN for action against anybody." "They are more interested in social issues and not war mongering."
Among Greens supporters, concern for the environment coexisted with anti-war sentiments and were often voiced in the same sentence. Senator Bob Brown was seen as an honest leader, moral and consistent. "Don’t want war, don’t want the nuclear stuff coming here." "I like their attitude to the environment and support their actions on the war with Iraq." "I am a fan of Bob Brown. He is more honest and does not lie like other politicians." "An honest leader (Brown) and strong commitment to the environment." "I support their opinion about war in Iraq." "A protest vote against both major parties for environmental issues; anti-war." "I’m for the environment and their anti-war policy." "Only ones against the war. Have environmental issues." "They maintain the most integrity. Bob Brown is a good guy – honest with the electorate, consistent, not swayed in any way negatively." "Against the war, pro-environment."
Among those still supporting the Liberal Party, economic issues continued to be mentioned as a reason for voting Liberal, as was Mr Howard’s performance, i.e as a strong leader, and in agreement with his stance on the current situation of the threat of war in Iraq. "Know what to do with the money, more than the others do." "Professionalism of John Howard, not influenced by extreme points of view." "Howard is very good. Handles the economy far better." "I like their foreign policy." "They’re doing well for Australia financially." "Like to support Mr Howard and his stance on Iraq. Would like him to continue." "Agree with John Howard, believe in his policies, very satisfied with the way he runs the country, best stands by his word." "Mainly because economically, they have done pretty good in the last three years." "I like their financial policies." "War – doing the right thing. 100% behind him." "Good at the economy."
Preferences of supporters of the Australian Democrats (ALP – 66% cf L-NP – 34%) and the Greens (ALP – 79.5% cf L-NP – 20.5%) favoured the ALP. Preference of supporters of One Nation (L-NP 56.5% cf ALP – 43.5%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates (L-NP – 53.5% cf ALP – 46.5%) favoured the L-NP Government. This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of March 1/2 & March 8/9, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,118 electors. Electors were asked: "If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today – which party would receive your first preference?" Of all electors surveyed, 5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party. For further information: Gary Morgan Office: (03) 9224 5213 Home: (03) 9419 3242 Mobile: 0411 129 094
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
Federal Voting Intention Trend
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