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A special Morgan Poll taken after it was known the US were victors in Iraq showed the L-NP would easily win a Federal election held now, with a two-party preferred lead in marginal L-NP electorates of 18 points – L-NP - 57% cf ALP - 39%; 4% undecided. Were former Labor leader Kim Beazley to take over from Simon Crean as Leader of the Opposition, the L-NP lead would drop to 10 points (L-NP - 53% cf ALP - 43%; 4% were undecided), however the L-NP would still retain most of their marginal seats and win if a Federal election were held now. These are findings of a special Morgan Poll commissioned by  The New Investor, a soon to be released monthly financial magazine.

The 39 electorates surveyed were defined as Liberal or National Party marginal seats after the 1998 or 2001 Federal elections. The ALP would need to win at least eleven of these seats in order to gain power at the next Federal election.

With 46%, Mr Beazley was the clear favourite for Labor leader amongst electors in Coalition marginal electorates. Current leader Simon Crean was the preferred leader of only 13% of electors in Coalition marginal electorates, followed by Kevin Rudd (8%), Mark Latham (6%) and Wayne Swan (3%). One percent named someone else and 23% couldn't say who they preferred as Labor leader.

Remove Mr Beazley from "the equation" and still only 26% in marginal L-NP electorates preferred Mr Crean as the Labor leader for the next Federal election, while 16% preferred Mr Rudd, 11% Mr Latham and 7% Mr Swan. One percent named someone else and a high 39% couldn't say.

Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research in which respondents gave reasons for their preferred Labor leader showed that those preferring Mr Beazley see him as a man of integrity and honesty who cares for the people. His experience and past performance were also cited as reasons why he was preferred.

"I like Beazley as a person, what he stands for, his policies. He's for the people and people count."
"I liked him, he was believable, genuine."
"I think Beazley has integrity."
"Seems like a fairly honest man."
"He's the only decent one that Labor had and it’s a shame that he didn't stay in for another term. He came across as though he cared for the people and he wasn't very arrogant."
"I liked him as Leader of the Opposition. I found him to be a just and fair man who was quite balanced in his views."
"I liked him when he was leader of Labor. He was fair, kind and sensitive."
"Mr Beazley has a better understanding of today's issues and experience to draw upon."
"Because he's got experience and because he's a straight runner and he's got experience in the art of defence strategy."

Those who preferred Mr Crean saw him as a better choice than the other possible leaders. Some thought he was doing a good job, while others said that he was the only one they knew anything about. A few electors commented that the public and media are unjustifiably against him.

"He's the best Opposition leader going around at the moment."
"The only one I really know a great deal about."
"The others don't appear up to scratch with their policies."
"I just don't trust any of the others."
"Beazley lost and Crean's there now so he's better and I don't know the others."
"I think he's hard up against it; people are against him and it's unjustified."
"Because I like what he's doing."
"Just going by past record, I think he's done fairly well."
"He's the only one I know."
"I don't hear about the others so much and Mr Crean is in the public eye and you can't judge the others."
"Gets written off in the press. I agree with what he has to say."

Those who would prefer to see a leader other than Mr Crean take the ALP to the next election had concerns about what they see as Mr Crean's indecisiveness and lack of strength. They felt that he was a weak leader who lacked the ability to inspire people and didn't have enough experience.

"As weak as water."
"I just don't think he inspires people."
"At the moment he's too wishy-washy."
"He's a nice man but doesn't get the point across - he's not forceful enough."
"He can't make up his mind, he's got no charisma."
"I'm a bit disappointed in the way he reacts to things the Government does in a negative way. He doesn't initiate anything, just reacts."
"He changes his mind too much. How can anyone believe what he says?"
"I don't think he's got a backbone, his policies change too much."
"I don't think the public can warm to his personality."
"Just his lack of experience."
"He doesn't know what he's talking about."
"I don't think he's got any direction."
"He seems to double-talk. Really hard to work him out. Comes across as probably the total opposite of what he wants to. Talks in circles."

Those who preferred Mr Rudd liked his style and thought that he handles things better than Mr Crean.

"I like the way Mr Rudd handles himself."
"He's better than Simon Crean, he's accepted more overseas. He handles himself better and speaks better than Mr Crean."
"He's got better qualities than Crean. I think he would make a better leader."
"In general I believe he will do a better job than Crean and lead the country better than Liberal."
"Mr Rudd's come across well in the media lately."

Mr Swan was seen as a new hope by those thinking that Labor needs a change. Those preferring him thought that he would make a better leader than Mr Crean.

"He's a new hope and he does a better job."
"A different outlook on political issues for Labor."
"Better than Crean."
"I don't like Labor leadership at the moment. They need a change."
"He's a better option than Simon Crean."
Mr Latham was seen by those preferring him as a man who has the courage to speak his mind. Some saw him as a young man with new things to offer.
"Because he's got guts."
"Because he speaks his mind and doesn't beat around the bush like Crean. You know where you stand with him."
"I think he's a young man who has a lot to offer the party, especially with the young people in the country."
"I like Mark Latham, he's got a bit of guts."

John Howard Preferred L-NP Coalition Leader

In the same marginal L-NP electorates, John Howard was the clear winner of preferred L-NP Coalition leader, with 47% naming him as their preferred leader. While the Coalition's heir apparent, Peter Costello, waits for his turn, he was not the clear second preference for the job. Only 14% of electors in marginal L-NP electorates preferred him as the Coaltion leader for the next Federal election, while 14% preferred Foreign Affairs Minister Alexander Downer. Philip Ruddock (4%) and Tony Abbott (3%) were the least preferred of the five possible leaders given, while 1% named someone else and 17% couldn't say.

Mr Howard enjoys a much higher job approval rating than does Mr Crean. Nearly two-thirds (65%) of electors in marginal L-NP electorates approve of Mr Howard's handling of his job as Prime Minister, while only 26% approve of Mr Crean's handling of his job as Leader of the Opposition. Electors in marginal L-NP electorates (71%) see Mr Howard as making a better Prime Minister than would Mr Crean (15%).

These are the main findings of this special Morgan Poll commissioned by The New Investor financial magazine that was conducted by telephone among 500 electors in marginal L-NP electorates across Australia on April 11-14, 2003.

For further information:
Gary Morgan Office: (03) 9224 5213 Mobile: 0411 129 094 Home: (03) 9419 3242

1. PREFERRED LEADER OF THE ALP

Electors in marginal L-NP electorates were asked: "If you were a Labor Party voter, and were helping choose the Labor leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer?"

Former leader Kym Beazley emerged as the clear favourite amongst electors in marginal L-NP electorates, with 46% choosing him as preferred Labor leader for the next Federal election.

Only 13% chose current leader Simon Crean, followed by Kevin Rudd (8%), Mark Latham (6%) and Wayne Swan (3%). One percent named someone else and 23% couldn't say.

Supporters of the ALP were most likely to choose Mr Beazley (55% cf Crean - 12%), followed by supporters of the Australian Democrats (Beazley - 50% cf Crean - 10%), Other Parties and Independent Candidates (Beazley - 45% cf Crean - 8%), L-NP (Beazley - 43% cf Crean - 15%), the Greens (Beazley - 42% cf Crean - 9%) and One Nation (Beazley - 34% cf Crean - 18%).

Mr Crean was clearly not a favourite of supporters of the Australian Democrats, who were more likely to prefer both Mr Beazley (50%) and Mr Rudd (19%) to Mr Crean (10%). Similarly supporters of the Greens, who were more likely to prefer both Mr Beazley (42%) and Mr Latham (12%) to Mr Crean (9%), with Mr Rudd (9%) taking equal preference.

Table 1. If you were a Labor Party voter, and were helping choose the Labor leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer?

		Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Total	L-NP	ALP	Aust Dem.#	The Greens#	One Nation#	Ind/ Other#	No Answer#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Crean	13	15	12	10	9	18	8	7
Beazley	46	43	55	50	42	34	45	22
Rudd	8	9	8	19	9	–	4	–
Latham	6	6	5	–	12	–	5	–
Swan	3	2	5	–	2	17	–	–
Someone else	1	1	1	–	–	–	4	7
Can’t say	23	24	14	21	26	31	34	64
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Both men (45%) and women (46%) in marginal L-NP electorates preferred Mr Beazley as Labor leader for the next Federal election. With 30% of women remaining undecided on the choice of Labor leader, men were more likely than women to prefer each of the other possible Labor leaders.

Across age groups, preference for both Mr Beazley tended to rise with age (37% of 18-24 year olds cf 48% of those aged 50 or more), while preference for Mr Crean declined with age (16% of 18-24 year olds cf 10% of those aged 50 or more). Preference for Mr Rudd rose with age (6% of 18-24 year olds cf 14% of those aged 50 or more).

Table 2. If you were a Labor Party voter, and were helping choose the Labor leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer?

		Analysis by Gender and Age
	Total	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Crean	13	16	10	16	16	13	10
Beazley	46	45	46	37	39	52	48
Rudd	8	11	6	6	8	3	14
Latham	6	7	5	6	7	7	3
Swan	3	4	2	5	1	3	3
Someone else	1	2	1	2	–	3	1
Can’t say	23	15	30	28	29	19	21
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

2. PREFERRED LEADER OF THE ALP - EXCLUDING MR BEAZLEY

Those who named Mr Beazley as their preferred Labor leader for the next Federal election were then asked to choose their preferred leader from the remaining names - Mr Crean, Mr Rudd, Mr Swan and Mr Latham.

With Mr Beazley removed from "the equation", still only 26% preferred Mr Crean, followed by Mr Rudd (16%), Mr Latham (11%) and Mr Swan (7%). One percent named someone else and 39% couldn't say.

Supporters of the ALP were most likely to choose Mr Crean (34%), followed by supporters of the Australian Democrats (30%), L-NP (25%), the Greens (18%), One Nation (17%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates (13%).

Table 3. If you were a Labor Party voter, and were helping choose the Labor leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer?

			Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Total	L-NP	ALP	Aust Dem.#	The Greens#	One Nation#	Ind/ Other#	No Answer#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Crean	26	25	34	30	18	17	13	15
Rudd	16	17	17	19	12	17	12	–
Latham	11	12	8	–	15	–	13	–
Swan	7	7	10	–	7	17	–	–
Someone else	1	1	1	–	–	–	4	7
Can’t say	39	38	30	51	48	49	58	78
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

With Mr Beazley excluded, more men (31%) than women (21%) in marginal L-NP electorates preferred Mr Crean as Labor leader for the next Federal election. Electors aged 25-34 years (35%) were more likely than those in other age groups to prefer Mr Crean, while electors aged 50 years or more were more likely than those in other age groups to prefer Mr Rudd.

Table 4. If you were a Labor Party voter, and were helping choose the Labor leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer?

		Analysis by Gender and Age
	Total	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Crean	26	31	21	25	35	25	23
Rudd	16	18	13	12	11	10	24
Latham	11	14	8	9	11	15	7
Swan	7	10	5	8	1	9	9
Someone else	1	2	1	2	–	2	1
Can’t say	39	25	52	44	42	39	36
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

3. CHANGE IN VOTE AS A RESULT OF CHANGE IN LABOR LEADERSHIP

Electors in marginal L-NP electorates were then asked: "If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today and [PREFERRED LABOR LEADER] were the leader of the Labor Party, would Labor receive your FIRST preference vote, or not?"

On a two party preferred basis, the ALP with Mr Crean as leader is currently 18 points behind L-NP in marginal L-NP electorates (L-NP - 57% cf ALP - 39%; 4% undecided).

Were Mr Beazley to take over as Labor leader, this margin would drop to 10 points (L-NP - 53% cf ALP - 43%; 4% undecided). (Six percent of electors in marginal L-NP electorates would change their vote to ALP, while 2% would change their vote away from ALP.) This is a similar vote in the seats surveyed as obtained in the 2001 Federal election when the L-NP won easily.

Labor would also fare slightly better under Mr Swan, with his leadership producing a margin of 16% (L-NP - 56% cf ALP - 40%; 4% undecided).

Under Mr Rudd, there would be little difference in the two party preferred vote, with as many electors turning to ALP as away from it.

Were Mr Latham to replace Mr Crean as Labor leader, the party would fare worse in marginal L-NP electorates, with a two party preferred margin of 20 points (L-NP - 58% cf ALP - 38%; 4% undecided).

Table 5. Two party preferred voting intention with different Labor leader.

Two Party Preferred Vote
	All Electorates		Marginal Electorates	Vote if [PREFERRED LEADER] Leads ALP
	1998 Election	2001 Election	2001 Election	Crean	Beazley	Swan	Rudd	Latham
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
L-NP	49	51	54.8	57	53	56	57	58
ALP	51	49	45.2	39	43	40	39	38
Undecided	–	–	–	4	4	4	4	4
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

4. PREFERRED LEADER OF THE L-NP COALITION

Electors in marginal L-NP electorates were also asked: "If you were a Liberal or National Party voter, and were helping choose the Coalition leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer?"

Of the possible L-NP Coalition leaders, John Howard was the clear winner, with 47% of electors in marginal L-NP electorates naming him as their preferred leader of the Coalition for the next Federal election.

While the Coalition's heir apparent, Peter Costello, awaits his turn, he was not the clear second preference for the job amongst electors in marginal L-NP electorates. Only 14% of electors in marginal L-NP electorates preferred him as the Coaltion leader for the next Federal election, while 14% preferred Foreign Affairs Minister Alexander Downer.

Philip Ruddock (4%) and Tony Abbott (3%) were the least preferred of the five possible leaders presented. One percent named someone else and 17% couldn't say.

Mr Howard was the preferred leader of the Coalition amongst supporters of the Coalition (Howard - 63% cf Costello - 13% and Downer - 12%), Other Parties and Independent Candidates (Howard - 44% cf Costello - 17% and Downer - 0%), One Nation (Howard - 35% cf Costello - 0% and Downer - 17%), the ALP (Howard - 32% cf Costello - 14% and Downer - 20%) and the Australian Democrats (Howard - 30% cf Costello - 21% and Downer - 10%).

Supporters of the Greens preferred Mr Costello as leader of the Coalition (Costello - 21% cf Howard - 14% and Downer - 15%).

Table 6. If you were a Liberal or National Party voter, and were helping choose the Coalition leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer

		Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Total	L-NP	ALP	Aust Dem.#	The Greens#	One Nation#	Ind/ Other#	No Answer#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Howard	47	63	32	30	14	35	44	23
Costello	14	13	14	21	21	–	17	–
Downer	14	12	20	10	15	17	–	–
Ruddock	4	4	4	10	2	17	9	–
Abbott	3	3	5	8	3	–	–	–
Someone else	1	–	1	–	–	–	9	–
Can’t say	17	5	24	20	45	31	21	77
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Mr Howard was the preferred Coalition leader for the next Federal election amongst both genders and all ages in marginal L-NP electorates.

However when it came to the second most preferred leader, there were differences between the genders and age groups. More women (Downer - 16% cf Costello - 11%) than men (Downer - 12% cf Costello - 16%) preferred Mr Downer to Mr Costello as Coalition leader for the next Federal election.

Electors aged 18-24 years (Downer - 16% cf Costello - 12%) and 50+ (Downer - 17% cf Costello - 13%) were more likely than those aged 35-49 years (Downer - 11% cf Costello - 16%) to prefer Mr Downer to Mr Costello. Electors aged 25-34 years were split between the two (Downer - 12% cf Costello - 13%).

Table 7. If you were a Liberal or National Party voter, and were helping choose the Coalition leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer?

		Analysis by Gender and Age
	Total	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Howard	47	47	47	42	48	53	43
Costello	14	16	11	12	13	16	13
Downer	14	12	16	16	12	11	17
Ruddock	4	6	2	5	2	3	6
Abbott	3	4	2	3	5	2	4
Someone else	1	1	1	–	–	1	–
Can’t say	17	14	21	22	20	15	17
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

5. APPROVAL OF MR HOWARD

Electors in marginal L-NP electorates were asked: "Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr Howard is handling his job as Prime Minister?"

Nearly two-thirds (65%) of electors in marginal L-NP electorates approve of Mr Howard's handling of his job, while 28% disapprove and 7% remain undecided.

Not surprisingly, Mr Howard's approval was highest amongst L-NP supporters, with 91% approving of the way he is handling his job as Prime Minister, followed by supporters of Other Parties and Independent Candidates (59%), One Nation (51%), Australian Democrats (49%), ALP (37%) and the Greens (19%).

Table 8. Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr Howard is handling his job as Prime Minister?

		Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Total	L-NP	ALP	Aust Dem.#	The Greens#	One Nation#	Ind/ Other#	No Answer#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	65	91	37	49	19	51	59	57
Disapprove	28	6	53	51	74	49	21	28
Can’t say	7	3	10	–	7	–	20	15
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

There was little difference between the genders, with 65% of men and 66% of women in marginal L-NP electorates approving of the way Mr Howard is handling his job as Prime Minister. Older electors in these seats were slightly more likely than younger electors to approve of the way he is handling his job, although the proportion of those disapproving was virtually the same across all age groups.

Table 9. Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr Howard is handling his job as Prime Minister?

		Analysis by Gender and Age
	Total	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	65	65	66	59	65	68	65
Disapprove	28	29	27	29	28	26	30
Can’t say	7	6	7	12	7	6	5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

6. APPROVAL OF MR CREAN

Electors in marginal L-NP electorates were then asked: "Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr Crean is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?"

Only a quarter (26%) of electors in marginal L-NP electorates approve of Mr Crean's handling of his job, with 60% disapproving and 14% remaining undecided.

Approval was highest amongst supporters of the ALP (38%), although more ALP supporters disapprove (46%) than approve of Mr Crean's handling of his job as Leader of the Opposition.

Twenty-four percent of supporters of the Greens approve of Mr Crean's handling of his job, followed by supporters of the Australian Democrats (21%), L-NP (also 21%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates (16%).

Table 10. Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr Crean is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?

		Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Total	L-NP	ALP	Aust Dem.#	The Greens#	One Nation#	Ind/ Other#	No Answer#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	26	21	38	21	24	–	16	14
Disapprove	60	70	46	39	58	83	59	36
Can’t say	14	9	16	40	18	17	25	50
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Men (28%) were more likely than women (23%) in marginal L-NP electorates to approve of Mr Crean's handling of his job as Leader of the Opposition. Younger electors in these seats (39% of 18-24 year olds) were more likely than older electors (21% of those aged 50+) to approve of the way Mr Crean is handling his job.

Table 11. Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr Crean is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?

		Analysis by Gender and Age
	Total	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	26	28	23	39	32	21	21
Disapprove	60	63	57	44	51	66	66
Can’t say	14	9	20	17	17	13	13
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

7. BETTER PRIME MINISTER

Electors in marginal L-NP electorates were then asked: "Thinking of both MR HOWARD and MR CREAN. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister - Mr Howard or Mr Crean?"

Seven out of ten electors (71%) in marginal L-NP electorates believe that Mr Howard would make a better Prime Minister than Mr Crean. Only 15% believe that Mr Crean would make a better Prime Minister than Mr Howard, while 2% named someone else and 12% remained undecided.

More supporters of all parties in marginal L-NP electorates believed that Mr Howard would make a better Prime Minister than Mr Crean. Coaltion supporters (Howard - 96% cf Crean - 2%) most preferred Mr Howard, followed by supporters of the Australian Democrats (Howard - 70% cf Crean - 10%), Other Parties and Independent Candidates (Howard - 66% cf Crean - 9%; ), One Nation (Howard - 65% cf Crean - 0%), and the Greens (Howard - 42% cf Crean - 38%). In what must be of concern to the ALP, more of their supporters believed Mr Howard (41%) would make a better Prime Minister than Mr Crean (37%)!

Table 12. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister - Mr Howard or Mr Crean?

	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Total	L-NP	ALP	Aust Dem.#	The Greens#	One Nation#	Ind/ Other#	No Answer#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Howard	71	96	41	70	42	65	66	29
Crean	15	2	37	10	38	–	9	–
Someone else	2	–	4	–	2	–	4	14
Can’t say	12	2	18	20	18	35	21	57
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

There was little difference between the genders, with 71% of men and 72% of women in marginal L-NP electorates believing that Mr Howard would make a better Prime Minister than Mr Crean. There was also little difference across age groups.

Table 13. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister - Mr Howard or Mr Crean?

		Analysis by Gender and Age
	Total	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Howard	71	71	72	68	76	72	69
Crean	15	16	14	19	18	14	13
Someone else	2	2	2	2	1	1	4
Can’t say	12	11	12	11	5	13	14
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the
ONLY Australian or New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand
has this qualification.

© 2012 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
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