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In late June, primary support for the L-NP rose 0.5% to 45.5% while support for the ALP fell 0.5% to 37%. If a Federal election had been held in late June, the Coalition would have been returned by about the same margin as at the last Federal election, the latest Morgan Poll finds.

Amongst the minor parties, support for the Greens was up 1.5% to 10%, Australian Democrats down 1% to 2.5%, One Nation down 0.5% to 0.5% and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 4.5% (unchanged).

On a two-party preferred basis, L-NP support was unchanged at 51% while ALP support was unchanged at 49%.

During the polling period:

• The ALP Caucus voted on the Party's leadership following former ALP Leader Kim Beazley's challenge to Simon Crean. Mr Crean won the ballot over Mr Beazley, 58 votes to 34 - the biggest margin in a leadership spill in 20 years of Australian political history.

• Major-General Michael Jeffery was announced as Australia's 24th Governor-General, to be sworn in on August 11.

• The ALP pushed for the Parliament's Intelligence Authorities' Committee to examine the nature and accuracy of information used to justify claims that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction ahead of the war. Despite similar inquiries in the United States and Britain, the Government steadfastly refused to investigate the accuracy of its intelligence information. Prime Minister Howard said the Government was proud of Australian involvement in the Iraq war.

• Foreign Minister Alexander Downer came under attack for not warning the Australian public in June last year that there was a possibility of terrorist attacks in Bali. Mr Downer admitted he had been warned Bali could be a target for terrorists four months before the bombings but rejected accusations he failed to heed the warnings, saying there was no hard evidence at the time to justify an upgrade in travel warnings to the tourist island.

• In a landmark decision, the Family Court ruled that the Federal Government's indefinite detention of children on immigration issues may be unlawful.

• Prime Minister John Howard ordered a six-month inquiry by Parliament's Family and Community Affairs Committee into whether separating parents should be given automatic joint custody and equal access to children.

• The Government introduced the Telstra full-sale legislation into the House of Representatives. The actual sale is not programmed to take place until mid-2005 at the earliest. Labor, the Democrats and the Greens voiced their continued opposition to the full sale. The Federal Government announced they would spend $181 million over the next four years to improve internet and phone services in the bush and would act on all 39 recommendations of last year's Estens inquiry into regional telecommunications.

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

Accuracy of the Morgan Poll

Gary Morgan says:

"Before the November 10, 2001 Federal Election the Morgan Poll, conducted by 'face-to-face' interviewing the weekend before the election, showed the ALP well in front. However on Election Day the Morgan Poll carried out a further 'face-to-face' survey that confirmed a swing to the L-NP in the last week of the election giving the L-NP a sound victory. During the last few days before the Federal Election, media coverage concentrated on the refugee boat people, people being killed when a boat was set alight and debate over whether or not children were thrown overboard. These events made 'border protection' and the refugee problem main election issues along with fears over national security due to the War on Terrorism, following the September 11 terrorist attacks."

November 10, 2001 Election Day poll: Finding No 3476

The Morgan Polls conducted prior to the Aston By-Election, the Ryan By-Election and the South Australian State election (all conducted 2-3 days before these elections by telephone interviewing) resulted in accurate predictions. See www.roymorgan.com for complete Morgan Poll details.

Aston Bi-Election July 14, 2001: Finding No 3422

Ryan Bi-Election March 17, 2001: Finding No 3392

South Australian State Election February 9, 2002: Finding No 3503

The following shows that the Morgan Poll was accurate in predicting the close South Australian election.

# - Figures provided by the South Australian Electoral Commission.

Victorian State Election November 30, 2002: Finding No 3583

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