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NSW Voting Intention Stable: ALP Still Have Comfortable Lead

Finding No. 3648 - July 11, 2003

During June, primary support for the NSW State Government was up 0.5% to 51%, while support for the Coalition was down 1.5% to 30.5%, the latest Morgan Poll finds.

Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was 9% (unchanged), Australian Democrats 2% (up 0.5%), One Nation 0.5% (unchanged) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 7% (up 0.5%).

On a two-party preferred basis, support for the ALP was up 0.5% to 63% while support for the L-NP was down 0.5% to 37%. If a State election had been held during June, the ALP would have won easily.

During the polling period:

  • The NSW Government and Premier Bob Carr received criticism from the Federal Tourism Minister, Joe Hockey, and the President of the NSW Tourism Industry Council, Dennis Winchester, for not supporting local tourism and major events with the same vigour of interstate counterparts.

  • Premier Bob Carr turned his attention to the issue of over-governance in NSW. He told Local Government Councillors that there must be a reduction in the number of Local Government Authorities in the State and demanded that local councils take the opportunity to amalgamate and improve services, or he would step in.

  • The NSW Government delivered the State Budget on June 25. The eighth successive surplus Budget (a small $43m) included increases in spending in education, health, community service and capital works. Treasurer Michael Egan described the Budget as "socially responsive and financially responsible". While considered an unsurprising and competent Budget, commentators bemoaned the lack of imagination and daring that should have been possible at the start of a four-year term.

Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research in which respondents gave their reason for voting was conducted on June 14-15, 2003. Typical reasons for voting ALP included "I like the current policies - health especially. They are strong and progressive", "This Party is for the people", "They care for the poor and have a good policy for the country", "I am happy with the current Government" and "The Opposition is inexperienced in leadership". A large number of responses from ALP supporters were praising Bob Carr, with comments including "I like Bob Carr and his leadership capability", "This Premier is worth while voting for. The State has been run well under him", "Mr Carr has his finger on the pulse" and "I like Bob Carr - I think he is serious and honest. I think he tries his best."

Typical reasons for voting for the Coalition included "Labor is not doing very much at the moment", "Give the Liberals a go and see if they can do better", "ALP can’t handle finances", "I prefer the policies of the Liberals and I relate more to their ideals" and "We need a change". Some respondents’ comments displayed a lack of trust for Labor policies and leadership, with comments including "I don’t like being lied to", "I don’t trust the ALP" and "Bob Carr told us lies before the last election." Others felt that the ALP lacked a powerful opponent, with one respondent commenting, "The present Government needs a stronger Opposition - I would vote for the Opposition to make them stronger".

Preferences of supporters of the Greens (ALP — 86% cf L-NP — 14%) favoured the State Government. Preferences of the Australian Democrats (L-NP — 66% cf ALP — 34%) and One Nation (L-NP — 60.5% cf ALP — 39.5%) favoured the Opposition. Supporters of Other Parties and Independent Candidates were split (L-NP — 50% cf ALP — 50%).

This latest Morgan Poll on New South Wales State Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face among 1,706 electors throughout New South Wales during June 2003. Electors were asked: "If a State election were being held today — which Party would receive your first preference?"

Of all electors surveyed 4.5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.

 

Further information:

Gary Morgan:    Office: (03) 9224 5213    Mobile: 0411 129 094    Home: (03) 9419 3242

 

NSW STATE VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY (%)

     

Aust.

The

One

Ind./

PRIMARY VOTE

ALP

L-NP

Dem.

Greens

Nation

Others

             

Election March 25, 1995

41.3

43.9

2.9

2.6

n/a

9.3

Election March 27, 1999

42.2

33.7 (8.8)

3.3

3.9

7.5

9.4

Election March 22, 2003   42.6 34.6 (9.7)   0.9 8.3  1.3  12.3 

MORGAN POLL

           

April 2003

50 29.5 (5.5) 2 10.5 1 7
May 2003

50.5

32 (4)

1.5

9

0.5

6.5

June 2003 

51  30.5 (4)   9 0.5 

Note: National Party results are in brackets


 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

     
 

ALP

L-NP

     

Election March 25, 1995

49.0

51.0

Election March 27, 1999

56.0

44.0

     

MORGAN POLL

   

April 2003 

63  37 

May 2003

62.5

37.5

June 2003 

 63 37 

NOTE: The State Electoral Office of NSW has not released a two-party preferred result for the March 2003 election.



 

TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES (%)

  April 2003 May 2003 June 2003
  ALP L-NP ALP L-NP ALP L-NP
             

 

 

MORGAN POLL

           

 

 

             

 

 

Australian Democrats ##

62.5 37.5 57 43  34  66

 

 

The Greens

82.5 17.5 86 14 86   14

 

 

One Nation ##

62.5 37.5 62 38  39.5  60.5

 

 

Independent/Other

38 62 43.5 56.5 50  50 

 

 

## Results from sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.

Sample: 1,706 electors

Interviewed: June 2003.

4.5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.


Finding No. 3648 is taken from Computer Report No. 1890

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the
ONLY Australian or New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand
has this qualification.


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