Unemployment Still Low Despite Slight Rise to 8.0%
| Finding No. 3654 -
July 21, 2003 |
|
The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.
For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate.
|
The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate has risen for the third consecutive Quarter, with estimated unemployment for the June 2003 Quarter at 8.0% - up 0.2% from the March 2003 Quarter, but slightly lower than the June 2002 Quarter (8.2%).
Since March, the number of Australians working full-time fell 68,000 to 6,059,000 and the number of Australians working part-time rose 56,000 to 2,787,000 resulting in 8,846,000 Australians employed. This is down 13,000 since the March Quarter but up 26,000 since the June 2002 Quarter and up 411,000 since the June 2001 Quarter.
The number of Australians who are now part of the workforce is up 3,000 since the March Quarter to 9,612,000.
Gary Morgan says:
"The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate rose just 0.2% to 8.0% in the June Quarter - this is still a low rate of unemployment. However, it's worth noting that while the number of Australians in employment fell by a relatively small 13,000, the number in full time employment actually fell by 68,000. The rise in the number of people in part-time employment (up 56,000) over the same period points to a possible problem of underemployment."
The number of Australians looking for work in the June 2003 Quarter increased slightly since the March Quarter, up 16,000, to an estimated 766,000.
The number of Australians seeking full-time and part-time work in the June Quarter was 442,000 (down 18,000) and 324,000 (up 34,000) respectively.
Unemployment in regional and rural areas (9.7%) remains higher than in capital cities (7.0%).
Victoria (6.9%, up 0.7%), had the lowest estimated unemployment level for the June Quarter followed by
New South Wales (7.6%, up 0.2%), Queensland (8.6%, down 0.7%), Tasmania (8.6%, up 1.5%) and Western Australia (9.1%, down 1.3%). South Australia (9.8%, up 1.9%) had the highest estimated level of unemployment for the June Quarter.
For the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate during the June Quarter, 15,582 Australians aged 14 and over were interviewed face-to-face on the weekends of April - June, 2003.
For further information:
Norman Woodcock: Office: 03 9224 5236 Mobile: 0413 274 679
Rosie Goldup: Office: 03 9224 5157 Mobile: 0407 294 952
| The Roy Morgan Unemployment Estimates |
The ABS Unemployment Estimates |
|
% of work force unemployed |
| |
Total looking
For work
('000) |
% of
Work force
Unemployed |
Total Looking
For Work*
('000) |
Original |
Adjusted* |
| 2000 |
|
| January |
983 |
|
10.6 |
|
655 |
|
7.4 |
|
6.9 |
|
| February |
853 |
|
9.2 |
|
644 |
|
7.5 |
|
6.7 |
|
| March |
868 |
(901) ** |
9.4 |
(9.7) ** |
700 |
(666) ** |
7.3 |
(7.4) ** |
6.9 |
(6.8) ** |
| April |
926 |
|
10.1 |
|
659 |
|
6.8 |
|
6.8 |
|
| May |
912 |
|
9.8 |
|
643 |
|
6.7 |
|
6.7 |
|
| June |
826 |
(888) ** |
8.9 |
(9.6) ** |
609 |
(637) ** |
6.3 |
(6.6) ** |
6.6 |
(6.7) ** |
| July |
870 |
|
9.3 |
|
610 |
|
5.9 |
|
6.3 |
|
| August |
856 |
|
9.1 |
|
624 |
|
6.2 |
|
6.4 |
|
| September |
869 |
(865) ** |
9.4 |
(9.3) ** |
614 |
(616) ** |
6.4 |
(6.2) ** |
6.3 |
(6.3) ** |
| October |
837 |
|
9.0 |
|
615 |
|
6.0 |
|
6.3 |
|
| November |
909 |
|
9.6 |
|
637 |
|
6.2 |
|
6.6 |
|
| December |
953 |
(900) ** |
10.2 |
(9.6) ** |
643 |
(632) ** |
6.5 |
(6.2) ** |
6.6 |
(6.5) ** |
| 2001 |
|
| January |
974 |
|
10.4 |
|
647 |
|
7.2 |
|
6.6 |
|
| February |
967 |
|
10.4 |
|
673 |
|
7.6 |
|
6.9 |
|
| March |
989 |
(977) ** |
10.6 |
(10.5)** |
662 |
(661) ** |
7.2 |
(7.3) ** |
6.8 |
(6.8) ** |
|
April |
970 |
|
10.2 |
|
669 |
|
6.8 |
|
6.8 |
|
|
May |
948 |
|
10.2 |
|
676 |
|
6.9 |
|
6.9 |
|
|
June |
908 |
(942)** |
9.7 |
(10.0)** |
681 |
(675) ** |
6.7 |
(6.8) ** |
6.9 |
(6.9) ** |
|
July |
837 |
|
8.8 |
|
618 |
|
6.3 |
|
6.3 |
|
|
August |
918 |
|
9.7 |
|
644 |
|
6.6 |
|
6.6 |
|
|
September |
1006 |
(920) ** |
10.7 |
(9.7) ** |
672 |
(645) ** |
6.8 |
(6.6) ** |
6.7 |
(6.5) ** |
| October |
914 |
|
9.6 |
|
697 |
|
6.7 |
|
7.1 |
|
| November |
889 |
|
9.1 |
|
661 |
|
6.4 |
|
6.7 |
|
| December |
1003 |
(935) ** |
10.5 |
(9.8) ** |
665 |
(674) ** |
6.6 |
(6.6) ** |
6.7 |
(6.8) ** |
| 2002 |
|
| January |
1075 |
|
10.9 |
|
693 |
|
7.4 |
|
7.0 |
|
| February |
926 |
|
9.4 |
|
653 |
|
7.3 |
|
6.6 |
|
| March |
841 |
(947) ** |
8.9 |
(9.8)** |
622 |
(656) ** |
6.7 |
(7.1) ** |
6.3 |
(6.6) ** |
| April |
812 |
|
8.4 |
|
622 |
|
6.4 |
|
6.3 |
|
| May |
744 |
|
7.8 |
|
622 |
|
6.3 |
|
6.3 |
|
| June |
794 |
(783) ** |
8.3 |
(8.2)** |
644 |
(629) ** |
6.3 |
(6.3) ** |
6.5 |
(6.4) ** |
| July |
750 |
|
7.6 |
|
609 |
|
5.6 |
|
6.2 |
|
| August |
690 |
|
7.3 |
|
622 |
|
6.0 |
|
6.2 |
|
| September |
703 |
(715) ** |
7.3 |
(7.4)** |
617 |
(616) ** |
5.9 |
(6.2) ** |
6.2 |
(6.2) ** |
| October |
748 |
|
7.8 |
|
599 |
|
5.7 |
|
6.0 |
|
| November |
716 |
|
7.4 |
|
617 |
|
5.8 |
|
6.1 |
|
| December |
730 |
(731) ** |
7.7 |
(7.7) ** |
628 |
(615) ** |
6.1 |
(5.9) ** |
6.2 |
(6.1) ** |
| 2003 |
|
| January |
673 |
|
7.0 |
|
620 |
|
6.5 |
|
6.1 |
|
| February |
808 |
|
8.4 |
|
610 |
|
6.7 |
|
6.0 |
|
| March |
769 |
(750)** |
8.0 |
(7.8)** |
626 |
(619)** |
6.5 |
(6.6)** |
6.2 |
(6.1)** |
|
April |
744 |
|
7.7 |
|
623 |
|
6.2 |
|
6.1 |
|
|
May |
791 |
|
8.2 |
|
613 |
|
6.1 |
|
6.0 |
|
|
June |
764 |
(766)** |
8.0 |
(8.0)** |
620 |
(619)** |
5.9 |
(6.1)** |
6.1 |
(6.1)** |
** Average calculated for previous three months
Roy Morgan Employment Estimate - detailed
| |
Total Workforce
('000) |
Total employed
('000) |
Total looking
for work
('000) |
% of workforce
Unemployed |
| 2000 |
|
| January |
9312 |
|
8329 |
|
983 |
|
10.6 |
|
| February |
9270 |
|
8417 |
|
853 |
|
9.2 |
|
| March |
9227 |
(9269) ** |
8359 |
(8368) ** |
868 |
(901) ** |
9.4 |
(9.7) ** |
| April |
9165 |
|
8239 |
|
926 |
|
10.1 |
|
| May |
9266 |
|
8354 |
|
912 |
|
9.8 |
|
| June |
9277 |
(9236) ** |
8451 |
(8348) ** |
826 |
(888) ** |
8.9 |
(9.6) ** |
| July |
9341 |
|
8471 |
|
870 |
|
9.3 |
|
| August |
9454 |
|
8598 |
|
856 |
|
9.1 |
|
| September |
9211 |
(9334) ** |
8342 |
(8470) ** |
869 |
(865) ** |
9.4 |
(9.3) ** |
| October |
9251 |
|
8414 |
|
837 |
|
9.0 |
|
| November |
9439 |
|
8530 |
|
909 |
|
9.6 |
|
| December |
9314 |
(9334) ** |
8361 |
(8434) ** |
953 |
(900) ** |
10.2 |
(9.6) ** |
| 2001 |
|
| January |
9408 |
|
8434 |
|
974 |
|
10.4 |
|
| February |
9280 |
|
8313 |
|
967 |
|
10.4 |
|
| March |
9320 |
(9336) ** |
8331 |
(9336) ** |
989 |
(977) ** |
10.6 |
(10.5) ** |
| April |
9466 |
|
8496 |
|
970 |
|
10.2 |
|
| May |
9323 |
|
8375 |
|
948 |
|
10.2 |
|
| June |
9344 |
(9377) ** |
8436 |
(8435) ** |
908 |
(942) ** |
9.7 |
(10.0) ** |
| July |
9548 |
|
8711 |
|
837 |
|
8.8 |
|
| August |
9466 |
|
8548 |
|
918 |
|
9.7 |
|
| September |
9414 |
(9475) ** |
8408 |
(8555) ** |
1006 |
(920) ** |
10.7 |
(9.7) ** |
| October |
9438 |
|
8524 |
|
914 |
|
9.6 |
|
| November |
9768 |
|
8879 |
|
889 |
|
9.1 |
|
| December |
9529 |
(9578) ** |
8526 |
(8643) ** |
1003 |
(935) ** |
10.5 |
(9.8) ** |
| 2002 |
|
| January |
9819 |
|
8744 |
|
1075 |
|
10.9 |
|
| February |
9801 |
|
8875 |
|
926 |
|
9.4 |
|
| March |
9470 |
(9696) ** |
8629 |
(8749) ** |
841 |
(947) ** |
8.9 |
(9.8) ** |
| April |
9692 |
|
8880 |
|
812 |
|
8.4 |
|
| May |
9557 |
|
8813 |
|
744 |
|
7.8 |
|
| June |
9563 |
(9604) ** |
8769 |
(8820) ** |
794 |
(783) ** |
8.3 |
(8.2) ** |
| July |
9842 |
|
9092 |
|
750 |
|
7.6 |
|
| August |
9484 |
|
8794 |
|
690 |
|
7.3 |
|
| September |
9637 |
(9654) ** |
8934 |
(8939) ** |
703 |
(715) ** |
7.3 |
(7.4) ** |
| October |
9614 |
|
8867 |
|
748 |
|
7.8 |
|
| November |
9623 |
|
8907 |
|
716 |
|
7.4 |
|
| December |
9429 |
(9555) ** |
8699 |
(8824) ** |
730 |
(731) ** |
7.7 |
(7.7) ** |
| 2003 |
|
| January |
9637 |
|
8964 |
|
673 |
|
7.0 |
|
| February |
9625 |
|
8817 |
|
808 |
|
8.4 |
|
| March |
9565 |
(9609)** |
8796 |
(8859)** |
769 |
(750)** |
8.0 |
(7.8)** |
|
April |
9681 |
|
8936 |
|
744 |
|
7.7 |
|
|
May |
9606 |
|
8815 |
|
791 |
|
8.2 |
|
|
June |
9551 |
(9612)** |
8787 |
(8846)** |
764 |
(766)** |
8.0 |
(8.0)** | ** Average calculated for previous three months
ABS Employment Estimates - detailed
| |
% of workforce unemployed |
| |
Total workforce*
('000) |
Total employed*
('000) |
Total Looking
for work*
('000) |
Original |
Adjusted |
| 2000 |
|
| January |
9558 |
|
8903 |
|
655 |
|
7.4 |
|
6.9 |
|
| February |
9606 |
|
8962 |
|
644 |
|
7.5 |
|
6.7 |
|
| March |
9650 |
(9605) ** |
8950 |
(8938) ** |
700 |
(666)** |
7.3 |
(7.4) ** |
6.9 |
(6.8)** |
| April |
9664 |
|
9005 |
|
659 |
|
6.8 |
|
6.8 |
|
| May |
9659 |
|
9017 |
|
643 |
|
6.7 |
|
6.7 |
|
| June |
9665 |
(9663) ** |
9056 |
(9026) ** |
609 |
(637)** |
6.3 |
(6.6) ** |
6.6 |
(6.7) ** |
| July |
9728 |
|
9118 |
|
610 |
|
5.9 |
|
6.3 |
|
| August |
9766 |
|
9142 |
|
624 |
|
6.2 |
|
6.4 |
|
| September |
9725 |
(9740) ** |
9111 |
(9124) ** |
614 |
(616)** |
6.4 |
(6.2) ** |
6.3 |
(6.3) ** |
| October |
9722 |
|
9106 |
|
615 |
|
6.0 |
|
6.3 |
|
| November |
9684 |
|
9047 |
|
637 |
|
6.2 |
|
6.6 |
|
| December |
9730 |
(9712) ** |
9087 |
(9080) ** |
643 |
(632)** |
6.5 |
(6.2) ** |
6.6 |
(6.5) ** |
| 2001 |
|
| January |
9730 |
|
9083 |
|
647 |
|
7.2 |
|
6.6 |
|
| February |
9773 |
|
9099 |
|
673 |
|
7.6 |
|
6.9 |
|
| March |
9752 |
(9752) ** |
9090 |
(9091) ** |
662 |
(661)** |
7.2 |
(7.3) ** |
6.5 |
(6.7) ** |
| April |
9800 |
|
9140 |
|
671 |
|
6.8 |
|
6.8 |
|
| May |
9818 |
|
9152 |
|
676 |
|
6.9 |
|
6.9 |
|
| June |
9830 |
(9816) ** |
9149 |
(9147) ** |
681 |
(676)** |
6.7 |
(6.8) ** |
6.9 |
(6.9) ** |
| July |
9809 |
|
9191 |
|
618 |
|
6.3 |
|
6.3 |
|
| August |
9768 |
|
9124 |
|
644 |
|
6.6 |
|
6.6 |
|
| September |
9928 |
(9835) ** |
9255 |
(9190) ** |
672 |
(672)** |
6.8 |
(6.6) ** |
6.7 |
(6.5) ** |
| October |
9880 |
|
9183 |
|
697 |
|
6.7 |
|
7.1 |
|
| November |
9848 |
|
9187 |
|
661 |
|
6.4 |
|
6.7 |
|
| December |
9864 |
(9864) ** |
9199 |
(9189) ** |
665 |
(674)** |
6.6 |
(6.6) ** |
6.7 |
(6.8) ** |
| 2002 |
|
| January |
9955 |
|
9263 |
|
693 |
|
7.4 |
|
7.0 |
|
| February |
9936 |
|
9283 |
|
653 |
|
7.3 |
|
6.6 |
|
| March |
9972 |
(9939) ** |
9304 |
(9283) ** |
622 |
(656)** |
6.7 |
(7.1) ** |
6.3 |
(6.6) ** |
| April |
9882 |
|
9261 |
|
621 |
|
6.4 |
|
6.3 |
|
| May |
9928 |
|
9305 |
|
622 |
|
6.3 |
|
6.3 |
|
| June |
9962 |
(9924) ** |
9318 |
(9294) ** |
643 |
(628)** |
6.3 |
(7.1) ** |
6.5 |
(6.4) ** |
| July |
9898 |
|
9289 |
|
609 |
|
5.6 |
|
6.2 |
|
| August |
10000 |
|
9378 |
|
622 |
|
6.0 |
|
6.2 |
|
| September |
9964 |
(9954) ** |
9347 |
(9338) ** |
617 |
(616)** |
6.2 |
(5.9) ** |
6.2 |
(6.2) ** |
| October |
9962 |
|
9363 |
|
599 |
|
5.7 |
|
6.0 |
|
| November |
10040 |
|
9424 |
|
617 |
|
5.8 |
|
6.1 |
|
| December |
10104 |
(10035) ** |
9476 |
(9421)** |
628 |
(615) ** |
6.1 |
(5.9) ** |
6.2 |
(6.1) ** |
| 2003 |
|
| January |
10196 |
|
9576 |
|
620 |
|
6.5 |
|
6.1 |
|
| February |
10173 |
|
9564 |
|
610 |
|
6.7 |
|
6.0 |
|
| March |
10146 |
(10172)** |
9521 |
(9554)** |
626 |
(619)** |
6.5 |
(6.6)** |
6.2 |
(6.1)** |
|
April |
10129 |
|
9506 |
|
623 |
|
6.2 |
|
6.1 |
|
|
May |
10148 |
|
9535 |
|
613 |
|
6.1 |
|
6.0 |
|
|
June |
10128 |
(10135)** |
9508 |
(9516)** |
620 |
(619)** |
5.9 |
(6.1)** |
6.1 |
(6.1)** |
| * Seasonally Adjusted figures ** Average calculated for previous three months |
|
