In the first poll taken after the bombing of the Marriott Hotel in Jakarta and the announcement that Bali bomber Amrozi was to receive the death penalty for his terrorist crime, primary support for the L-NP rose 0.5% to 44%, while support for the ALP was also up 0.5% to 39%. On a two-party preferred basis, L-NP support was up 0.5% to 50.5% while ALP support was down 0.5% to 49.5%. If a Federal Election had been held in early August, the L-NP would have won a close election, the latest Morgan Poll finds.

Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was 7% (down 2%), Australian Democrats 4% (up 1.5%), One Nation 1% (unchanged) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 5% (down 0.5%).

Gary Morgan says:

Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research conducted on August 9/10, in which respondents gave reasons for their voting intention, shows that the people of Australia are looking for stability and security in a time of international instability. People feel secure with the current Federal Government. It's not just about defence issues; it's also a general sense of security that comes with a relatively stable economy. The average person feels safe knowing that interest rates are low and the economy is relatively stable so they can plan for their own future.

The Howard Government provides electors with a ‘known quantity'. Whether or not electors agree with everything the Federal Government does, the attraction of the known over the unknown is powerful - 'better the devil you know'. The ALP is an unknown quantity for most and in a time of international instability, electors don't want to feel insecure.

That's not to say that everyone feels this way. A large number of electors feel that the Howard Government has gone too far - what about social justice, what about education, what about health? they say. What about the value of looking after those who can't look after themselves? For these people, there is a sense that the Howard Government is dismantling the welfare state and creating a user-pays society — this is something that goes against the Australian ideal of a 'fair go'.

The question is, on Election Day will the desire for a fair go for all outweigh the desire to feel secure? In this time of international insecurity, it isn't likely. However with still about a year until the next Federal Election, there is always the chance that the world's and Australia's focus could change.

L-NP supporters were typically satisfied with the job being done by the current Federal Government and felt no need to change. Comments included:

Prime Minister John Howard received praise from many L-NP supporters, who respected his actions in recent international events and felt that they could trust him to deliver what he promised.

A number of L-NP supporters felt that the Coalition could be trusted more than other parties.

While other L-NP supporters believed that the Opposition didn't have it's act together and so didn't deserve to govern Australia. For some, there was a sense of disappointment in this realisation.

For some L-NP supporters, the stability offered by continuing with the present Government was appealing.

ALP supporters typically preferred the Labor Party's social policies, with Health and Medicare, Education, and Refugees and Immigration policies the primary focus.

The belief that the ALP cares more for community, for workers and for the average member of society was a recurring theme for ALP supporters, with many saying that it was their agreement with this philosophy that meant the Labor Party always received their support.

A few ALP supporters had faith in the future of the Labor Party despite being unsure of its current state.

Other ALP supporters were not happy with the current Federal Government and Prime Minister John Howard.

Just as some L-NP supporters felt that the Coalition was more trustworthy than the ALP, so too did some ALP supporters feel that the ALP was more trustworthy than the Coalition. A number of ALP supporters cited the Liberal Party's dishonesty as the reason they supported the Labor Party.

As a sad indictment on the world of politics, one ALP supporter was resigned to dishonesty but said, "I'll stick with the one that doesn't lie as much."

Other ALP supporters simply felt the need for a change of Government.

Preferences of supporters of One Nation (L-NP — 53.5% cf ALP — 46.5%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates (ALP — 51.5% cf L-NP — 48.5%) favoured the Government. Preferences of supporters of the Greens (ALP — 78% cf L-NP — 22%), Australian Democrats (ALP — 75% cf L-NP — 25%) favoured the Opposition.

This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekend of August 9/10, 2003, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,062 electors. Electors were asked: "If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?" Of all electors surveyed, 4.5% (unchanged) did not name a party.