ALP Takes Lead After Hanson Sentenced to Jail and Wilson Tuckey's "Foolishness"
| Finding No. 3664 -
August 30, 2003 |
In the first poll after One Nation founder Pauline Hanson was sentenced to three years in jail for electoral fraud, primary support for the L-NP fell 6% to 40.5% while support for the ALP rose 2% to 38.5%. On a two-party preferred basis, L-NP support was down 3.5% to 48% while ALP support was up 3.5% to 52%. If a Federal Election had been held in late August, the ALP would have won a close election, the latest Morgan Poll finds.
Support for the minor parties was up, with support for the Greens at 8.5% (up 0.5%), Australian Democrats 4.5% (up 0.5%), One Nation 2% (up 1.5%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 6% (up 1.5%).
In the week prior to the polling period:
One Nation Party founders Pauline Hanson and David Ettridge were found guilty of fraudulently registering their Party in Queensland by claiming that members of the Party's supporters group were genuine members of the Party when they were not. Pauline Hanson was also found guilty on two additional charges of fraudulently obtaining two cheques from the Queensland Electoral Commissoner totalling nearly half a million dollars after the 1998 election. The Judge sentenced Pauline Hanson and David Ettridge to three years in jail.
It was revealed that Howard Government Minister Wilson Tuckey used his Ministerial letterhead to ask a South Australian Police Minister to drop a traffic charge against his son. Mr Tuckey denied the move breached Mr Howard's Code of Ministerial Conduct. Opposition Frontbencher Mr Mark Latham identified a number of instances in which Mr Tuckey misled Parliament while trying to explain his error. The Prime Minister said that Mr Tuckey was foolish and wrong but would not sack him.
Gary Morgan says:
"The Pauline Hanson jailing and Wilson Tuckey’s misuse of his Ministerial position abruptly switched the Australian political agenda from the War in Iraq, Terrorism in Indonesia, and problems in the Solomon Islands, back to serious domestic issues on political impropriety.
The significant fall in the L-NP vote with the resulting increase in minor party support will be short-lived if Pauline Hanson is released from jail. If Pauline Hanson remains in jail, many would say unfairly, Australians will continually question why others, including politicians, are not prosecuted or dealt with nearly as harshly.
The only way for the major parties not to be affected in the longer term by Pauline Hanson's tough jail sentence is for her to be immediately released from jail sentence is for her to be immediately released from jail pending appeal. Hopefully for those involved in her downfall the Appeal to the High Court is years from now, by which time the three year jail term will be a non-issue for most electors."
Preferences of supporters of all minor parties favoured the Opposition: the Greens (ALP — 75% cf L-NP — 25%), Australian Democrats (ALP — 71% cf L-NP — 29%), One Nation (ALP — 57% cf L-NP — 43%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates (ALP — 53.5% cf L-NP — 46.5%).
This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekend of August 23/24, 2003, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,155 electors. Electors were asked: "If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?" Of all electors surveyed, 5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.
Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research conducted Australia-wide on Wednesday night (August 27) found:
- 55% of Australian electors believe Pauline Hanson was guilty of electoral fraud, 22% not guilty and 23% undecided. When asked why they thought Pauline Hanson was guilty, many responses supported the judicial process with typical responses including: "She went through the judicial system and they found her guilty and I support that decision," "She was found guilty and I can only accept what the jury has to say." Other responses were "I think she’s just ripped people off, made up things that weren’t true and people had put their trust in her" and "Ignorance is not an excuse for being fraudulent." Typical answers from respondents who believe Pauline Hanson was not guilty included: "I do not think she was guilty — I think it was a witch hunt," "She didn’t do it intentionally, she didn’t hurt anybody and she paid the money back" and "She’s been set up by someone because there were a lot of people that didn’t like her." One respondent even commented: "Someone was guilty of it but not her personally. She was dumb. Dumber than Shane Warne."
Of all Australian electors, only 13% believe that Pauline Hanson was guilty and should have been sentenced to jail. Typical responses included: " She fraudulently obtained money from the Government and she needs to be held accountable for her actions," "Anyone else would go to jail" and "Political corruption goes to the heart of our democracy and it is just as damaging to our society as violent crime." The remainder who believe she was guilty say her penalty should be either community service (20%), a suspended sentence (10%) or a fine (7%), while 5% can't say. The reasons given for the sentence of community service included: "Jail is too harsh," and "It costs us too much to keep her in jail when she isn’t a threat to society." Similar responses were given for Pauline Hanson having a suspended sentence: "I don’t think she has been more dishonest than other politicians, perhaps a bit naïve." Respondents who supported a fine as Pauline Hanson’s punishment made comments such as: "I think a fine matches the offence. I don’t think jail is a suitable punishment."
Of all Australian electors, only 5% believe Pauline Hanson should have been sent to jail for 3 or more years, 6% say less than 3 years while 2% can't say;
63% of Australian electors disapprove of Mr Abbott’s involvement in setting up a trust to fund the legal campaign to have the One Nation Party declared invalid under Queensland electoral law. Only 14% approve, with 23% undecided. Reasons given for disapproving of Mr Abbott’s involvement included: "I think that as a member of a political party it is a clear conflict of interest." As one respondent commented: "To put it nicely — I guess you could say ‘It’s not cricket’." Standard comments of those who agreed with Mr Abbott’s involvement included "If they were fraudulently registered then that should be proven to the public" and "It is part of his role and a reasonable thing to do."
When surveyed, only 18% were aware of Mr Abbott’s 1998 involvement in this trust and his public denial of funding the legal campaign.
47% believe Mr Abbott should now resign as a Minister, 31% say he should not resign, while 22% remain undecided. Respondents who believe Mr Abbott should now resign made comments such as "This is a serious matter and we are meant to trust these people as our leaders. If you did it in any other job, you’d get the sack." Those who were of the opinion that Mr Abbott should not resign gave reasons including "It’s not bad enough to resign" and "I think politicians lie every day of the week — so it’s not out of the ordinary."
45% believe Mr Howard should dismiss Mr Abbott from his Ministerial position, 33% say Mr Howard should not, while 22% remain undecided. As one respondent stated: "He has lied and it is the Prime Minister’s job to see this does not happen." Yet, in contrast, another commented: "Why dismiss this bloke for lying, when every other politician does it. None of them can lie straight in bed!"
The above Morgan Poll findings are based on surveying by telephone an Australia-wide cross section of 311 electors on August 27, 2003.
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office: (03) 9224 5213 Mobile: 0411 129 094 Home: (03) 9419 3242
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
| PRIMARY VOTE |
L-NP |
ALP |
Aust.
Dem. |
The
Greens |
One
Nation |
Ind./
Others |
| Election March 2, 1996 |
47.3 (8.6) |
38.8 |
6.8 |
1.7 |
N/A |
5.4 |
| Election October 3, 19981 |
39.5 (5.3) |
40.1 |
5.1 |
2.1 |
8.5 |
4.7 |
| Election November 10, 2001 |
43 (5.6) |
37.8 |
5.4 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
5.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| MORGAN POLL 2003 |
|
| July 5/6 & July 12/13 |
44.5 (3.5) |
37.5 |
2.5 |
9.5 |
1 |
5 |
| July 19/20 & July 26/27 |
43.5 (3) |
38.5 |
2.5 |
9 |
1 |
5.5 |
| August 9/10 |
44 (3.5) |
39 |
4 |
7 |
1 |
5 |
| August 16/17 |
46.5 (2.5) |
36.5 |
4 |
8 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
| August 23/24 |
40.5 (1.5) |
38.5 |
4.5 |
8.5 |
2 |
6 |
Note: National Party results are in brackets
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle. |
| TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE |
| |
L-NP |
ALP |
| Election March 2, 1996 |
53.6 |
46.4 |
| Election October 3, 19981 |
49 |
51 |
| Election November 10, 2001 |
51 |
49 |
|
|
|
| MORGAN POLL 2003 |
|
| July 5/6 & July 12/13 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
| July 19/20 & July 26/27 |
50 |
50 |
| August 9/10 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
| August 16/17 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
| August 23/24 |
48 |
52 |
| 1 For the October 3, 1998 Federal election the L-NP didn't contest the Newcastle supplementary election. For Newcastle the L-NP "two-Party" estimate includes those who didn't vote ALP or give their preference to the ALP. If the Newcastle two-Party preferred vote for the October 3, 1998 election is excluded the Australia-wide "two-Party" preferred vote is L-NP - 49.0% cf ALP - 51.0% |
| TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES |
|
July 19/20
& July 26/27 |
August 9/10 |
August 16/17 |
August 23/24 |
| MORGAN POLL |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
| Australian Democrats # |
28 |
72 |
25 |
75 |
34 |
66 |
29 |
71 |
| The Greens |
21.5 |
78.5 |
22 |
78 |
8 |
92 |
25 |
75 |
| One Nation # |
70.5 |
29.5 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
30 |
70 |
43 |
57 |
| Independent/Other # |
44 |
56 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
22 |
78 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
|
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
Sample: 1,155 electors interviewed face-to-face on August 23/24, 2003.
5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party. |
View Federal Voting Intention Trend
Finding No. 3664 is taken from Computer Report No. 1899
The Morgan Poll is conducted by the
ONLY Australian or New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand
has this qualification.
|
