In mid-September, primary support for the L-NP rose 1% to 40.5% while support for the ALP also rose 1% to 39%. For the third consecutive polling period, two-party preferred support for the L-NP was at 48% and for the ALP 52%. If a Federal Election had been held in early September, the ALP would have won a close election, the latest Morgan Poll finds.

Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was 8.5% (down 1%), Australian Democrats 3% (down 0.5%), One Nation 3.5% (unchanged) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 5.5% (down 0.5%).

Gary Morgan says:

"The ALP always receives the majority of Minor Party preferences, so for the Coalition to be ahead on a two-party preferred basis it needs to have a substantial lead in primary support.

"Over the last month, Pauline Hanson's conviction and jailing has seen a loss in Coalition support to the minor parties, including but not limited to One Nation. This has resulted in a narrowing of the L-NP lead in primary support.

"The Coalition's loss in primary support to the minor parties over the last month has not been compensated for by preferences back to the Coalition — hence the ALP's lead on two-party preferred basis over the last month.

"The Coalition needs to win back primary support if it is to take back the two-party preferred lead from the ALP."

• Pauline Hanson's second attempt at bail was rejected. Queensland's Court of Appeal found no exceptional circumstances to warrant Ms Hanson's release on bail. Ms Hanson will now take her bid for bail to the High Court.

• Prime Minister John Howard played down speculation of an early election, saying that Australian voters have a tendency to punish governments that call early elections without good reason and that nothing had occurred to make him consider an early election. However, he put his Cabinet on election footing, asking Ministers to come up with new policy proposals to take to the next Federal Election.

• There was continued speculation about a possible move to Federal politics for NSW Premier Bob Carr before the next State election in 2007. Both Mr Carr and Federal Opposition Leader Simon Crean played down the speculation, with Mr Carr asserting that he would not be cutting short his time as Premier. The speculation was fuelled by some Federal Labor MPs but played down by others.

• Opposition Leader Simon Crean ruled out standing down before the next election. He stated his commitment to staying on as Leader and fighting the next election, whenever it is held. He warned his Party of the need to remain disciplined and united.

• Economists predicted that the Reserve Bank would lift its official interest rate before Christmas in order to prick the housing bubble. The Reserve Bank's annual report found that household debt had been rising at double-digit rates for some time and was a risk to Australia's economic prosperity.

• Analysis of the economic growth figures found that the national tax take of about $19 billion grew at almost double the rate of incomes.

• Education Minister Brendan Nelson tabled long-awaited bills in Parliament proposing the largest overhaul of Australia's universities in 20 years. Dr Nelson said the reforms were needed to enable universities to gain access to more money and compete on a more equitable footing with overseas universities.

• In Indonesia, Imam Samudra was found guilty of planning the Bali bombings and was sentenced to death. Ali Imron, the repentant Bali bomber, was convicted for his role and sentenced to life in jail.

Preferences of supporters of all minor parties favoured the Opposition: Australian Democrats (ALP — 79% cf L-NP — 21%), the Greens (ALP — 75% cf L-NP — 25%), One Nation (ALP — 57% cf L-NP — 43%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates (ALP — 51% cf L-NP — 49%).

This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of September 13/14 & 20/21, 2003, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,045 electors. Electors were asked: "If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?" Of all electors surveyed, 5.5% (unchanged) did not name a party.