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Cabinet Reshuffle Increases L-NP Support: L-NP 50.5%, ALP 49.5%

Finding No. 3680 - October 11, 2003

In early October, following the threat of mass resignations by doctors and the Prime Minister's Cabinet reshuffle, primary support for the L-NP rose 2.5% to 43% while support for the ALP was unchanged at 39%, the latest Morgan Poll finds.

The L-NP's increase in support came from the minor parties, with support for most minor parties down. Support for the Greens was down 1% to 7.5%, Australian Democrats up 0.5% to 3.5%, One Nation down 1.5% to 2% and Other Parties and Independent Candidates down 0.5% to 5%.

On a two-party preferred basis, the L-NP regained most of the ground lost when Pauline Hanson was convicted and jailed. Two-party preferred support for the L-NP rose to 50.5% (up 2.5%) while support for the ALP fell to 49.5% (down 2.5%). If a Federal Election had been held in early October, it would have been too close to call.

Gary Morgan says:

"The electorate's initial reaction to the Cabinet reshuffle has been positive, with the L-NP receiving an increase in support on both a primary and a two-party preferred basis.

Health will be a major issue at the next election. Moving Tony Abbott to the Health Portfolio gives the impression that the Government is making Health a priority, something that electors want to see.

However, for the L-NP to sustain their increase in support, Tony Abbott will need to produce positive results — a difficult task."

During the polling period:

Prime Minister John Howard announced a major Ministerial reshuffle following Richard Alston's decision to soon leave politics. Tony Abbott has been moved to Health and Ageing, Kay Patterson to Family and Community Services, Amanda Vanstone to Immigration, Philip Ruddock to Attorney-General, Daryl Williams to Communications, IT and the Arts, Kevin Andrews to Employment and Workplace Relations and Julie Bishop to Ageing.
Treasurer Peter Costello revealed that last year's Budget produced a $7.5 billion surplus, $3.9 billion more than forecast due to better-than-expected company profits and therefore taxes. The bumper surplus has opened the way for both major parties to offer new spending and tax cuts leading into the next election.

Preferences of supporters of One Nation (L-NP — 70% cf ALP — 30%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates (L-NP — 65.5% cf ALP — 34.5%) favoured the Government. Preferences of supporters the Greens (ALP — 84.5% cf L-NP — 15.5%) and the Australian Democrats (ALP — 70.5% cf L-NP — 29.5%) favoured the Opposition

This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekend of October 4/5, 2003, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,156 electors. Electors were asked: "If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?" Of all electors surveyed, 4% (down 1.5%) did not name a party.

For further information:

Gary Morgan: Office: (03) 9224 5213 Mobile: 0411 129 094 Home: (03) 9419 3242

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

PRIMARY VOTE	L-NP	ALP	Aust. Dem.	The Greens	One Nation	Ind./ Others
Election March 2, 1996	47.3 (8.6)	38.8	6.8	1.7	N/A	5.4
Election October 3, 1998¹	39.5 (5.3)	40.1	5.1	2.1	8.5	4.7
Election November 10, 2001	43 (5.6)	37.8	5.4	4.4	4.3	5.1

MORGAN POLL 2003
August 16/17	46.5 (2.5)	36.5	4	8	0.5	4.5
August 23/24	40.5 (1.5)	38.5	4.5	8.5	2	6
August 30/31 & September 6/7	39.5 (2.5)	38	3.5	9.5	3.5	6
September 13/14 & September 20/21	40.5 (2)	39	3	8.5	3.5	5.5
October 4/5	43 (3)	39	3.5	7.5	2	5
Note: National Party results are in brackets # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution ¹ October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE
	L-NP	ALP
Election March 2, 1996	53.6	46.4
Election October 3, 1998¹	49	51
Election November 10, 2001	51	49

MORGAN POLL 2003
August 16/17	51.5	49.5
August 23/24	48	52
August 30/31 & September 6/7	48	52
September 13/14 & September 20/21	48	52
October 4/5	50.5	49.5
¹ For the October 3, 1998 Federal election the L-NP didn't contest the Newcastle supplementary election. For Newcastle the L-NP "two-Party" estimate includes those who didn't vote ALP or give their preference to the ALP. If the Newcastle two-Party preferred vote for the October 3, 1998 election is excluded the Australia-wide "two-Party" preferred vote is L-NP - 49.0% cf ALP - 51.0%

TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES
	August 23/24		August 30/31 & September 6/7		September 13/14 & September 20/21		October 4/5
MORGAN POLL	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP
Australian Democrats #	29	71	30	70	21	79	29.5	70.5
The Greens	25	75	23	77	25	75	15.5	84.5
One Nation #	43	57	60.5	39.5	43	57	70	30
Independent/Other #	46.5	53.5	51.5	48.5	49	51	65.5	34.5
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution Sample: 1,156 electors interviewed face-to-face on October 4/5, 2003. 4% (down 1.5%) did not name a party.

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

Finding No. 3680 is taken from Computer Report No. 1910

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the
ONLY Australian or New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand
has this qualification.