In mid October, prior to President Bush's visit to Australia, Federal voting intention was split on a two-party preferred basis with both the Howard Government and the Opposition at 50% (L-NP down 0.5%, ALP up 0.5%). If a Federal election had been held in mid October, it would have been too close to call, the latest Morgan Poll finds.

Primary support for the L-NP rose 1% to 44% while support for the ALP was down 0.5% at 38.5%. Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was 7% (down 0.5%), Australian Democrats 3% (down 0.5%), One Nation 2.5% (up 0.5%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 5% (unchanged).

Gary Morgan says:

"Since the Cabinet reshuffle, the electorate has focussed on social issues such as health and education. A Federal Election, if held, would have been too close to call."

• New Health Minister Tony Abbott was given the go-ahead to overhaul the Federal Government's stalled $917 million Medicare package, even if it requires additional funding. Mr Abbott admitted in Parliament that the health system had problems and that fixing it would take time. He has conceded that in its current form the package has no chance of getting through the Senate, and has made it clear that he was willing to put more money into the reforms.

• Prime Minister John Howard said that he was not committing himself to a full three-year term if he wins a fourth election. Instead, he said that he would always put the Party first and that he would continue as leader while it remains in the Party's best interests to do so, and while his colleagues want him as leader.

• Labor Leader Simon Crean quelled a backbench plan for Labor politicians to turn their backs while US President George W. Bush addressed Parliament. Mr Crean said that whatever views individual MPs held about US Foreign Policy, it would be discourteous and inappropriate to turn their backs on anyone invited to address the Australian Parliament. Mr Crean later told Labor MPs that they should show respect for a visitor to Parliament and stand for Mr Bush as he arrived and at the conclusion of his speech.

• The anniversary of the Bali bombings and memorial services for the victims took place. Prime Minister Howard joined the families and friends of victims in a ceremony held in Bali.

Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research in which respondents gave their reason for voting was conducted on October 11/12, 2003. Key reasons for voting for the Liberal Party included their policies, economic management and that Howard is perceived to be a strong leader. Common responses were: "I think the Liberal Party’s policies are better", "I like Howard’s direction. The country is financially stable. We pay our bills and most decisions are satisfactory" and "The Liberal Party are better economic managers and they have better policies." In referring to John Howard as Prime Minister, responses included "I like John Howard, he doesn’t bow to pressure" and "John Howard is a very good Prime Minister". Many Liberal Party supporters were of the opinion that the ALP is in disarray and without policies: "Labor aren’t strong enough", "The opposition has nothing to offer" and "At least the Liberal Party has policies, even though I don’t like them." One respondent intending to vote Liberal remarked: "I don’t think the other mob has any guts. They just alter what’s already in place".

Numerous supporters of the Federal ALP prefer the Labor Party’s social policies and cited this as the primary reason to vote for the ALP. Respondents commented: "The ALP have better policies for immigrants and for people generally", "I like the education and health policies of the Labor Party. The Liberals have ruined the public health system and education is a mess" and "I’m disappointed with the Liberals. The Labor Party is more likely to support Medicare". Other respondents felt that the Howard Government had been dishonest: "I don’t agree with what Mr Howard is doing. There is not enough honesty in politics" and "I mistrust the Liberals". There was an underlying sentiment amongst the ALP supporters that the Howard Government had been in power for too long: "The Liberals have been there for long enough", "We need a change" and "It’s not good for a government to be in for too long".

Common to many supporters of the different minor parties was disillusionment with the Federal ALP and the Liberal Party. Responses from supporters of the Greens, Australian Democrats, and Other Parties and Independent Candidates included: "I’m fairly disillusioned with the major parties", "I’m fed up with the Liberals and Labor are weak" and "There is no big difference between the ALP and the Liberal Party. They talk but they don’t walk their words." In particular, supporters of the Greens were concerned chiefly about the environment but also about other social policies: "Greens are more about the citizens than business" and "There is not enough emphasis on environmental issues". One supporter of the Independent Candidates commented that "Voting independent gives everyone a shake-up." Interestingly, respondents intending to vote for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation still cited her jail sentence as their reason: "Pretty unfair to lock up Pauline Hanson, she deserves support for what she’s done".

Preferences of supporters of One Nation (L-NP — 56% cf ALP — 44%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates (L-NP — 56% cf ALP — 44%) favoured the Government. Preferences of supporters the Greens (ALP — 85% cf L-NP — 15%) and the Australian Democrats (ALP — 77% cf L-NP — 23%) favoured the Opposition.