Federal ALP Takes Lead
| Finding No. 3684 -
November 08, 2003 |
Following the visits of the American and Chinese Presidents to Australia and Greens' Senators heckling Mr Bush during his address to the Joint Sitting of Federal Parliament, primary support for the ALP rose 1.5% to 40% while support for the L-NP fell 3% to 41%.
Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was up 2% to 9%, Australian Democrats 4% (up 1%), One Nation 1.5% (down 1%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 4.5% (down 0.5%).
On a two-party preferred basis, support for the ALP rose 3% to 53% while support for the L-NP fell 3% to 47%. If a Federal election had been held in early November, the ALP would have won, the latest Morgan Poll finds.
Interviewing was conducted before Pauline Hanson and David Ettridge's acquittal of electoral fraud by the Queensland Court of Appeal, and before the Reserve Bank of Australia increased the Official Cash Rate by 0.25%.
Gary Morgan says:
"There are obviously many Australians concerned about the continued US military presence and casualties in Iraq and whether the initial military action should have taken place. With Senators Brown and Nettle hijacking the agenda of President Bush's recent address to the Joint Sitting of Federal Parliament, these concerns were brought to the fore. This has resulted in a rise in support for both the ALP and the Greens.
"Similarly, in the United States, for the first time the majority (51% - ABC/Washington Post Poll, October 29 2003) of Americans disapprove of President Bush's handling of the situation in Iraq."
Before the polling period:
U.S. President George W. Bush visited Australia, addressing a joint sitting of Federal Parliament on October 23. In his speech, Mr Bush said that the relationship between Australia and the US was vital for the two countries. Greens' Senators Bob Brown and Kerry Nettle were ejected from Parliament for heckling during the course of the President's speech.
China's President Hu Jintao visited addressed a joint sitting of Federal Parliament on the following day. The President said that the relationship between China and Australia would deepen and broaden over the coming years.
The Senate blocked the Federal Government's legislation for the full sale of Telstra.
Preferences of supporters of One Nation (L-NP — 53% cf ALP — 47%) favoured the Government. Preferences of supporters the Greens (ALP — 82% cf L-NP — 18%) and the Australian Democrats (ALP — 76.5% cf L-NP — 23.5%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates (ALP — 59% cf L-NP — 41%) favoured the Opposition.
This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of October 25/26 & November 1/2, 2003, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,851 electors. Electors were asked: "If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?" Of all electors surveyed, 5.5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office: (03) 9224 5213 Mobile: 0411 129 094 Home: (03) 9419 3242
VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
| PRIMARY VOTE |
L-NP |
ALP |
Aust.
Dem. |
The
Greens |
One
Nation |
Ind./
Others |
| Election March 2, 1996 |
47.3 (8.6) |
38.8 |
6.8 |
1.7 |
N/A |
5.4 |
| Election October 3, 19981 |
39.5 (5.3) |
40.1 |
5.1 |
2.1 |
8.5 |
4.7 |
| Election November 10, 2001 |
43 (5.6) |
37.8 |
5.4 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
5.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| MORGAN POLL 2003 |
|
| August 30/31 & September 6/7 |
39.5 (2.5) |
38 |
3.5 |
9.5 |
3.5 |
6 |
September 13/14 &
September 20/21 |
40.5 (2) |
39 |
3 |
8.5 |
3.5 |
5.5 |
| October 4/5 |
43 (3) |
39 |
3.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
5 |
| October 11/12 & October 18/19 |
44 (3) |
38.5 |
3 |
7 |
2.5 |
5 |
| October 25/26 & November 1/2 |
41 (2) |
40 |
4 |
9 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
Note: National Party results are in brackets
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle. |
| TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE |
| |
L-NP |
ALP |
| Election March 2, 1996 |
53.6 |
46.4 |
| Election October 3, 19981 |
49 |
51 |
| Election November 10, 2001 |
51 |
49 |
|
|
|
| MORGAN POLL 2003 |
|
| August 30/31 & September 6/7 |
48 |
52 |
| September 13/14 & September 20/21 |
48 |
52 |
| October 4/5 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
| October 11/12 & October 18/19 |
50 |
50 |
| October 25/26 & November 1/2 |
47 |
53 |
| 1 For the October 3, 1998 Federal election the L-NP didn't contest the Newcastle supplementary election. For Newcastle the L-NP "two-Party" estimate includes those who didn't vote ALP or give their preference to the ALP. If the Newcastle two-Party preferred vote for the October 3, 1998 election is excluded the Australia-wide "two-Party" preferred vote is L-NP - 49.0% cf ALP - 51.0% |
| TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES |
|
September 13/14 &
September 20/21 |
October 4/5 |
October 11/12 &
October 18/19 |
October 25/26 &
November 1/2 |
| MORGAN POLL |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
| Australian Democrats |
21 |
79 |
29.5 |
70.5 |
23 |
77 |
23.5 |
76.5 |
| The Greens |
25 |
75 |
15.5 |
84.5 |
15 |
85 |
18 |
82 |
| One Nation # |
43 |
57 |
70 |
30 |
56 |
44 |
53 |
47 |
| Independent/Other |
49 |
51 |
65.5 |
34.5 |
56 |
44 |
41 |
59 |
|
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
Sample: 1,851 electors interviewed face-to-face on October 25/26 & November 1/2, 2003.
5.5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party. |
View Federal Voting Intention Trend
Finding No. 3684 is taken from Computer Report No. 1912
The Morgan Poll is conducted by the
ONLY Australian or New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand
has this qualification.
|
