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QLD: Increased Support for One Nation in Queensland Following Pauline Hanson's Release from Jail

Finding No. 3688 - November 23, 2003

Following the Queensland Court of Appeal's acquittal of Pauline Hanson and David Ettridge on November 6, primary support for the Queensland One Nation Party rose to 6% in mid November, the latest Morgan Poll finds. Support for the ALP at the same time (November 8/9 & 15/16) was 52.5%, Liberal Party 20.5%, National Party 9.5%, the Greens 5%, Australian Democrats 2% and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 4.5%.

On a two-party preferred basis, support for the ALP in mid November was 59.5% (down 3%) while support for the L-NP was 40.5% (up 3%). Despite the ALP's fall in support, they would still easily win an election held now, the Morgan Poll finds.

Gary Morgan says:

"On a two-party preferred basis, support for the L-NP rose 3% to 40.5% following Ms Hanson's release while the ALP fell 3% to 59.5%.

The change in the two-party preferred vote will be short-lived unless Pauline Hanson makes overtures of a re-entry into politics."

The latest Morgan Poll on Queensland State Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face among 402 electors throughout Queensland on November 8/9 and November 15/16. Electors were asked: "If a State election were being held today - which Party would receive your first preference?" Of all electors surveyed, 4.5% (up 1%) were undecided on voting intention.

In September and October, preferences of supporters of the Greens (ALP — 78% cf L-NP — 22%) and the Australian Democrats (ALP — 64.5% cf L-NP — 35.5%) favoured the ALP Government. Supporters of One Nation (L-NP — 72% cf ALP — 28%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates (L-NP — 53% cf ALP — 47%) favoured the Opposition.

The September/ October Morgan Poll on Queensland State Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face among 1,533 electors throughout Queensland on the weekends of September and October 2003. Electors were asked: "If a State election were being held today - which Party would receive your first preference?" Of all electors surveyed, 3.5% (down 0.5%) were undecided on voting intention.

Further information:

Gary Morgan:  Office: (03) 9224 5213   Mobile: 0411 129 094  Home: (03) 9419 3242

 

QUEENSLAND STATE VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY (%)

PRIMARY VOTE ALP L-NP Liberal National One Nation Aust.
Dem.
The
Greens
Ind./
Other
Election June 13, 1998 38.9 31.3 16.1 15.2 22.7 1.6 2.3 3.2
Election February 17, 2001 48.9 28.5 14.3 14.2 8.7 0.3 2.5 11.1
MORGAN POLL  
March - April 2003 57 28.5 20 8.5 1.5 2 6 5
May - June 2003 56 30.5 21.5 9 1.5 1.5 4 6.5
July - August 2003 53 32 23.5 8.5 2.5 1.5 3.5

7.5

September - October 2003 53.5 30 22 8 4 2.5 4.5 5.5

November 8/9 & 15/16 2003

52.5 30 20.5 9.5 6 2 5 4.5
 
 
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE
 
  ALP L-NP
MORGAN POLL  
March - April, 2003 64.5 35.5
May - June 2003 63 37
July - August 2003 60.5 39.5
September - October 2003 62.5 37.5

November 8/9 & 15/16 2003 

 59.5  40.5
Note: The Electoral Commission of Queensland has not released a two-Party preferred vote.

TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES
  Mar - Apr 2003 May - Jun 2003 Jul - Aug 2003 Sep - Oct 2003
MORGAN POLL ALP L-NP ALP L-NP ALP L-NP ALP L-NP
                 
Australian Democrats ## 47.5 52.5 59.5 40.5 51.5 48.5 64.5 35.5
The Greens 68.5 31.5 60.5 39.5 54 46 78 22
One Nation ## 40 60 36.5 63.5 41 59 28 72
Independent/Other 42.5 57.5 41 59 45.5 54.5 47 53

## Results from sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.


Sample: 1,533 electors were interviewed on the weekends of September and October 2003; 

402 electors were interviewed on the weekends of November 8/9 & 15/16, 2003.


 3.5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party in September and October;

4.5% (up 1%) did not name a party on November 8/9 & 15/16.


Finding No. 3688 is taken from Computer Report No. 1916

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the
ONLY Australian or New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand
has this qualification.


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