Federal Election Would Be Too Close To Call
| Finding No. 3690 -
November 22, 2003 |
In mid November, primary support for the Federal Government rose 1.5% to 42.5% while support for the ALP fell 4.5% to 35.5%. On a two-party preferred basis, support for the Coalition rose 3.5% to 50.5% with the ALP at 49.5% (down 3.5%). If a Federal election had been held in mid November, it would have been too close to call, the latest Morgan Poll finds.
Support for One Nation rose 1.5% to 3% following the acquittal of party founders Pauline Hanson and David Ettridge of electoral fraud by the Queensland Court of Appeal.
Among other minor parties, support for the Greens was up 0.5% to 9.5%, Australian Democrats 3% (down 1%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 6.5% (up 2%).
Gary Morgan says:
"The L-NP and ALP are 'neck and neck'. The Howard Government has diffused the medical indemnity crisis and international issues are back on the agenda, with boat people, increased casualties in Iraq and increasing terrorism outside Iraq.
"Today, the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is near an all-time high at 124.2 (see Article No. 285). This high figure will soon 'evaporate' if there are regular rises in interest rates next year and the Bush Administration backs down on the free trade agreement because of domestic concerns in the US leading up to the Presidential election.
"With concerns that interest rates will rise further in the new year, Mr Howard must be considering an early election."
During the polling period:
The Federal Government retrospectively excised almost 4000 islands from Australia's northern migration zone to stop a new boatload of suspected asylum seekers applying for refugee status. The new regulations were similar to those disallowed by the Senate last year. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees told Federal Government representatives that Australia had international obligations to process the 14 asylum seekers who had reached Melville Island.
The Prime Minister visited London, commemorating the 1.5 million Australians who served in the first and second World Wars by dedicating a new Australian War Memorial in Hyde Park. Mr Blair and Mr Howard also held talks in Downing Street and launched the inaugral Australia-UK Leadership Forum.
Pauline Hanson and David Ettridge were acquitted of electoral fraud by the Queensland Court of Appeal and released from jail after serving 78 days.
Queensland's Premier Peter Beattie moved in Queensland Parliament for an inquiry into the jailing of Ms Hanson and Mr Ettridge and the involvement of Federal Health Minister Tony Abbott in the initial legal action against the pair following comments made in the Court of Appeal's judgement. In a statement Mr Abbott stressed that he had never been involved in the criminal actions against the pair.
The Reserve Bank of Australia increased the Official Cash Rate by 0.25% to 5%.
ALP Backbencher Carmen Lawrence was elected ALP President after the Party's first nation-wide membership ballot for the job.
Preferences of supporters of One Nation (L-NP — 63.5% cf ALP — 36.5%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates (L-NP — 52% cf ALP — 48%) favoured the Government. Preferences of supporters the Greens (ALP — 88.5% cf L-NP — 11.5%) and the Australian Democrats (ALP — 68.5% cf L-NP — 31.5%) favoured the Opposition.
This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends November 8/9 & 15/16, 2003, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,962 electors. Electors were asked: "If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?" Of all electors surveyed, a relatively high 7% (up 1.5%) did not name a party.
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office: (03) 9224 5213 Mobile: 0411 129 094 Home: (03) 9419 3242
VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
| PRIMARY VOTE |
L-NP |
ALP |
Aust.
Dem. |
The
Greens |
One
Nation |
Ind./
Others |
| Election March 2, 1996 |
47.3 (8.6) |
38.8 |
6.8 |
1.7 |
N/A |
5.4 |
| Election October 3, 19981 |
39.5 (5.3) |
40.1 |
5.1 |
2.1 |
8.5 |
4.7 |
| Election November 10, 2001 |
43 (5.6) |
37.8 |
5.4 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
5.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| MORGAN POLL 2003 |
|
September 13/14 &
September 20/21 |
40.5 (2) |
39 |
3 |
8.5 |
3.5 |
5.5 |
| October 4/5 |
43 (3) |
39 |
3.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
5 |
| October 11/12 & October 18/19 |
44 (3) |
38.5 |
3 |
7 |
2.5 |
5 |
| October 25/26 & November 1/2 |
41 (2) |
40 |
4 |
9 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| November 8/9 & November 15/16 |
42.5 (3.5) |
35.5 |
3 |
9.5 |
3 |
6.5 |
Note: National Party results are in brackets
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle. |
| TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE |
| |
L-NP |
ALP |
| Election March 2, 1996 |
53.6 |
46.4 |
| Election October 3, 19981 |
49 |
51 |
| Election November 10, 2001 |
51 |
49 |
|
|
|
| MORGAN POLL 2003 |
|
| September 13/14 & September 20/21 |
48 |
52 |
| October 4/5 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
| October 11/12 & October 18/19 |
50 |
50 |
| October 25/26 & November 1/2 |
47 |
53 |
| November 8/9 & November 15/16 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
| 1 For the October 3, 1998 Federal election the L-NP didn't contest the Newcastle supplementary election. For Newcastle the L-NP "two-Party" estimate includes those who didn't vote ALP or give their preference to the ALP. If the Newcastle two-Party preferred vote for the October 3, 1998 election is excluded the Australia-wide "two-Party" preferred vote is L-NP - 49.0% cf ALP - 51.0% |
| TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES |
|
October 4/5 |
October 11/12 &
October 18/19 |
October 25/26 &
November 1/2 |
November 8/9 &
November 15/16 |
| MORGAN POLL |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
| Australian Democrats # |
29.5 |
70.5 |
23 |
77 |
23.5 |
76.5 |
31.5 |
68.5 |
| The Greens |
15.5 |
84.5 |
15 |
85 |
18 |
82 |
11.5 |
88.5 |
| One Nation # |
70 |
30 |
56 |
44 |
53 |
47 |
63.5 |
36.5 |
| Independent/Other |
65.5 |
34.5 |
56 |
44 |
41 |
59 |
52 |
48 |
|
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
Sample: 1,962 electors interviewed face-to-face on November 8/9 & 15/16, 2003.
7% (up 1.5%) did not name a party. |
View Federal Voting Intention Trend
Finding No. 3690 is taken from Computer Report No. 1918
The Morgan Poll is conducted by the
ONLY Australian or New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand
has this qualification.
|
