ALP In Lead After Crean Stands Down
| Finding No. 3693 -
December 06, 2003 |
In late November, after Simon Crean announced he would stand down as Leader of the ALP but before Mark Latham was elected the new Leader, primary support for the ALP was 38% while support for the Federal Government was 40%, the latest Morgan Poll finds.
On a two-party preferred basis, support for the ALP was 52% with the Coalition at 48%. If a Federal election had been held in late November, the ALP would have won on minor party preferences.
Among other minor parties, support for the Greens was 9%, One Nation 4.5%, Australian Democrats 3.5% and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 5%.
Gary Morgan says:
"Mr Latham now has a big job ahead of him. He needs to create an environment of unity within the Labor Party for the ALP to win the next election, as well as show strong leadership on domestic and international electoral issues."
During the polling period:
- Simon Crean announced that he would stand down as leader of the Labor Party. Kim Beazley and Mark Latham announced their candidacy for the position.
- The Senate delayed the passage of the revamped Medicare package. Labor, the Greens, the Democrats and Independents decided to hold a Senate select committee inquiry into the $2.4 billion package.
- The Senate overturned a Government move to remove northern islands from Australia's migration zone.
Preferences of supporters of all minor parties favoured the Opposition: the Greens (ALP — 79.5% cf L-NP — 20.5%), Australian Democrats (ALP — 67.5% cf L-NP — 32.5%), Other Parties and Independent Candidates (ALP — 65% cf L-NP — 35%) and One Nation (ALP — 54.5% cf L-NP — 45.5%).
This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekend of November 29/30, 2003, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,022 electors. Electors were asked: "If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?" Of all electors surveyed, 6% did not name a party.
For further information:
Rosie Goldup: Office: (03) 9224 5157 Mobile: 0407 294 952
VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
| PRIMARY VOTE |
L-NP |
ALP |
Aust.
Dem. |
The
Greens |
One
Nation |
Ind./
Others |
| Election March 2, 1996 |
47.3 (8.6) |
38.8 |
6.8 |
1.7 |
N/A |
5.4 |
| Election October 3, 19981 |
39.5 (5.3) |
40.1 |
5.1 |
2.1 |
8.5 |
4.7 |
| Election November 10, 2001 |
43 (5.6) |
37.8 |
5.4 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
5.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| MORGAN POLL 2003 |
|
| October 11/12 & October 18/19 |
44 (3) |
39 |
3.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
5 |
| October 25/26 & November 1/2 |
41 (2) |
38.5 |
3 |
7 |
2.5 |
5 |
| November 8/9 & November 15/16 |
42.5 (3.5) |
40 |
4 |
9 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| November 22/23 |
42 (2) |
38 |
4 |
8 |
3 |
5 |
| November 29/30 |
40 (3.5) |
38 |
3.5 |
9 |
4.5 |
5 |
Note: National Party results are in brackets
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle. |
| TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE |
| |
L-NP |
ALP |
| Election March 2, 1996 |
53.6 |
46.4 |
| Election October 3, 19981 |
49 |
51 |
| Election November 10, 2001 |
51 |
49 |
|
|
|
| MORGAN POLL 2003 |
|
| October 11/12 & October 18/19 |
50 |
50 |
| October 25/26 & November 1/2 |
47 |
53 |
| November 8/9 & November 15/16 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
| November 22/23 |
48 |
52 |
| November 29/30 |
48 |
52 |
| 1 For the October 3, 1998 Federal election the L-NP didn't contest the Newcastle supplementary election. For Newcastle the L-NP "two-Party" estimate includes those who didn't vote ALP or give their preference to the ALP. If the Newcastle two-Party preferred vote for the October 3, 1998 election is excluded the Australia-wide "two-Party" preferred vote is L-NP - 49.0% cf ALP - 51.0% |
| TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES |
|
October 25/26 &
November 1/2 |
November 8/9 &
November 15/16 |
November 22/23
|
November 29/30 |
| MORGAN POLL |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
| Australian Democrats # |
23.5 |
76.5 |
31.5 |
68.5 |
18.5 |
81.5 |
32.5 |
67.5 |
| The Greens |
18 |
82 |
11.5 |
88.5 |
8.5 |
91.5 |
20.5 |
79.5 |
| One Nation # |
53 |
47 |
63.5 |
36.5 |
48 |
52 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
| Independent/Other |
41 |
59 |
52 |
48 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
35 |
65 |
|
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
Sample: 1,022 electors interviewed face-to-face on November 29/30, 2003.
6% (up 1.5%) did not name a party. |
View Federal Voting Intention Trend
Finding No. 3693 is taken from Computer Report No. 1919
The Morgan Poll is conducted by the
ONLY Australian or New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand
has this qualification.
|
