ALP Lead 52.5% to L-NP 47.5% After Latham Elected ALP Leader
| Finding No. 3694 -
December 13, 2003 |
In early December, after Mark Latham was elected the new Labor Party leader, primary support for both the ALP and the Coalition rose, with the parties now neck-and-neck on primary support. The ALP rose 3% to 41% while support for the Federal Government rose 1.5% to 41.5%, the latest Morgan Poll finds.
Support for the minor parties fell, with The Greens at 6% (down 3%), Australian Democrats 2.5% (down 1%), One Nation 3% (down 1.5%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 6% (up 1%).
On a two-party preferred basis, support for the ALP was 52.5% (up 0.5%) with the Coalition at 47.5% (down 0.5%). If a Federal election had been held in early December, the ALP would have won on minor party preferences.
Gary Morgan says:
“While Mr Latham's elevation to ALP leader has seen an increase in primary support for the ALP, it has also seen an increase in support for the Government with the losers being minor parties. On a two-party-preferred basis, the ALP would win a federal election if held now.
“Roy Morgan Qualitative Research shows clearly that those supporting the ALP will vote for them because of their policies such as education and health and their new leader Mark Latham.
“Mr Latham is liked because: ‘he’ll have a go and make it interesting again.’”
During the polling period:
-
Mark Latham was elected by the ALP Caucus to become Opposition Leader.
-
There was widespread criticism of Democrat Leader Senator Andrew Bartlett for drunkenly manhandling 62-year-old Liberal Senator Jeannie Ferris.
-
Mr Howard attended the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Abuja, Nigeria.
Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research in which respondents gave their reason for voting was conducted on on December 6/7, 2003.
Typical reasons for voting ALP included support for their policies with education, Medicare, hospitals and immigration receiving frequent mention. Others believed that the ALP is for the working class, the everyday Australian.
"ALP is more progressive."
"I don't vote for personalities. I vote for the principles of the Party. Labor represents the working class."
"They do more for regional areas."
"The ALP supports socially responsible policies."
"They're better for education and Medicare."
"I like their policies and believe in the unions. I like their medical policies."
"I want to test Labor to see what they are going to do with immigration."
"Being a pensioner I get looked after better under Labor."
"I believe in their policies - social policies, education policies."
"The Labor Party tend to take more interest in middle class society and blue collar workers."
In addition Mark Latham's election received many positive comments by ALP supporters such as:
"Give the new guy a run."
"I've always voted ALP but was disenchanted until Mark Latham was appointed leader."
"I'm hopeful that the change of Labor leader will bring some change and benefit for Australians."
"I'm a big fan of the new leader. He's got balls, he'll have a go and make it interesting again."
"Fresh bloke, seems all right."
"Gutsy decision to put in Latham."
Some ALP supporters weren't happy with the Prime Minister and current Government. Specific mentions of the Iraq War and Australia's relationship with the United States were made by some.
"I have no confidence in the present Government."
"I'm dissatisfied with the Liberal Party."
"The ALP couldn't make a bigger mess of things than we've already got."
"I don't agree with the way refugees are being treated."
"Liberals are subservient to the USA."
"John Howard needs to be removed from Government before he does any more damage to the Australian way of life."
"Liberals have become out of touch with the ordinary people."
"I don't like John Howard's attitudes to the USA and refugees."
"I've had Howard up to the eyeballs."
Other ALP supporters simply felt that it was time for a change.
"We need a change so I would change my vote from Liberal to Labor."
"I'd like to see a change."
Typical reasons for voting Liberal included satisfaction with the Government's and the Prime Minister's performance. Some were generally content with the way the country is running; others mentioned specific areas of policy where they felt the Government was doing a good job, such as the economy and security.
"I'm very happy with the Government's performance."
"Security of the country and management of the country's economy are managed well by the Liberals."
"I can trust John Howard. He really cares for this country. He believes what he says."
"Our local MP is ideal and I am generally satisfied with the present Government."
"I agree with most of the issues they stand for and they look after the economy well."
"They're doing well for the country — the security of the country as a whole and the economy."
"They have a very sound political track record, good policies. John Howard is the best leader in Australia."
"I'm very happy with the way they're handling Australia at the moment economically. The Labor Party is falling apart. I know a lot of people disagree but John Howard is a good leader and I will vote for him again."
A number of Liberal Party supporters mentioned the new ALP leader Mark Latham as the reason they would vote Liberal, either because they didn't like him or because they didn't yet know enough about him.
"Not overly rapt with Mark Latham — he doesn't impress me."
"I don't know Latham well enough yet."
"The way Latham carries on in Parliament, one could not vote for his Party."
"I stand by what Mr Howard thinks but I will see how Latham performs before the election."
Other Liberal Party supporters felt that despite the ALP electing a new leader — or perhaps because of it — the ALP was in a state of disarray and lacking in unity and stability. The Liberal Party, on the other hand, was seen as being in control and stable and therefore in a position to provide stability to the Nation.
"At the moment Labor is in a mess. I like the stability of the Liberal Party."
"The Liberal Party is unified. They seem more in control of their party — better leadership."
"The Liberal Party has had one leader for so long. The Labor Party has chopped and changed lately — it doesn't fill me with any confidence in their abilities."
"The Liberals are more stable than the others. They're not better than any of the others but at least they're stable."
"Liberal is the most stable Party. Labor is in such a mess."
"Stability — I don't want to chance with the way the world is at the moment. I want to keep things the same."
"Stability of the country."
"Stability — not changing gives the Nation stability."
Some Liberal Party supporters felt that the Party was simply the best option, with no other Party offering a viable alternative.
"At this stage they are the best choice."
"I think they are the best at the moment."
"I don't have any confidence in Labor and the other parties don't have much of an impact."
"The other parties need to prove themselves."
"I lack confidence in the other parties."
"There is no other choice worth considering."
"The Greens don't do much, the Democrats have the drunken leader and One Nation isn't organised."
"I have little confidence in the Opposition."
Preferences of supporters of all minor parties, except One Nation, favoured the Opposition: The Greens (ALP — 84.5% cf L-NP — 15.5%), Australian Democrats (ALP — 75% cf L-NP — 25%), Other Parties and Independent Candidates (ALP — 64% cf L-NP — 36%). One Nation supporters favoured the Coalition (L-NP — 66% cf ALP — 34%).
This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekend of December 6/7, 2003, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 987 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 7% did not name a party
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office: (03) 9224 5213 Mobile: 0411 129 094 Home: (03) 9419 3242
VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
| PRIMARY VOTE |
L-NP |
ALP |
Aust.
Dem. |
The
Greens |
One
Nation |
Ind./
Others |
| Election March 2, 1996 |
47.3 (8.6) |
38.8 |
6.8 |
1.7 |
N/A |
5.4 |
| Election October 3, 19981 |
39.5 (5.3) |
40.1 |
5.1 |
2.1 |
8.5 |
4.7 |
| Election November 10, 2001 |
43 (5.6) |
37.8 |
5.4 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
5.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| MORGAN POLL 2003 |
|
| October 25/26 & November 1/2 |
41 (2) |
40 |
4 |
9 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| November 8/9 & November 15/16 |
42.5 (3.5) |
35.5 |
3 |
9.5 |
3 |
6.5 |
| November 22/23 |
42(2) |
38 |
4 |
8 |
3 |
5 |
| November 29/30 |
40(3.5) |
38 |
3.5 |
9 |
4.5 |
5 |
| December 6/7 |
41.5(2.5) |
41 |
2.5 |
6 |
3 |
6 |
Note: National Party results are in brackets
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle. |
| TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE |
| |
L-NP |
ALP |
| Election March 2, 1996 |
53.6 |
46.4 |
| Election October 3, 19981 |
49 |
51 |
| Election November 10, 2001 |
51 |
49 |
|
|
|
| MORGAN POLL 2003 |
|
| October 25/26 & November 1/2 |
47 |
53 |
| November 8/9 & November 15/16 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
| November 22/23 |
48 |
52 |
| November 29/30 |
48 |
52 |
| December 6/7 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
| 1 For the October 3, 1998 Federal election the L-NP didn't contest the Newcastle supplementary election. For Newcastle the L-NP "two-Party" estimate includes those who didn't vote ALP or give their preference to the ALP. If the Newcastle two-Party preferred vote for the October 3, 1998 election is excluded the Australia-wide "two-Party" preferred vote is L-NP - 49.0% cf ALP - 51.0% |
| TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES |
|
November 8/9 &
November 15/16 |
November 22/23 |
November 29/30 |
December 6/7 |
| MORGAN POLL |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
| Australian Democrats # |
31.5 |
68.5 |
18.5 |
81.5 |
32.5 |
67.5 |
25 |
75 |
| The Greens |
11.5 |
88.5 |
8.5 |
91.5 |
20.5 |
79.5 |
15.5 |
84.5 |
| One Nation # |
63.5 |
36.5 |
48 |
52 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
66 |
34 |
| Independent/Other |
52 |
48 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
35 |
65 |
36 |
64 |
|
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
Sample: 987 electors interviewed face-to-face on December 6/7, 2003.
7% (up 1%) did not name a party. |
View Federal Voting Intention Trend
Accuracy of the Morgan Poll
Gary Morgan says:
"Before the November 10, 2001 Federal Election the Morgan Poll, conducted by 'face-to-face' interviewing the weekend before the election, showed the ALP well in front. However on Election Day the Morgan Poll carried out a further 'face-to-face' survey that confirmed a swing to the L-NP in the last week of the election giving the L-NP a sound victory. During the last few days before the Federal Election, media coverage concentrated on the refugee boat people, people being killed when a boat was set alight and debate over whether or not children were thrown overboard. These events made 'border protection' and the refugee problem main election issues along with fears over national security due to the War on Terrorism, following the September 11 terrorist attacks."
November 10, 2001 Election Day poll: Finding
No 3476
The Morgan Polls conducted prior to the Aston By-Election, the Ryan By-Election and the South Australian State election (all conducted 2-3 days before these elections by telephone interviewing) resulted in accurate predictions. See www.roymorgan.com for complete Morgan Poll details.
Aston Bi-Election July 14, 2001: Finding
No 3422
Ryan Bi-Election March 17, 2001: Finding
No 3392
South Australian State Election February 9, 2002: Finding
No 3503
The following shows that the Morgan Poll was accurate in predicting the close South Australian election.
|
SOUTH AUSTRALIAN |
|
ELECTION RESULT South Australian State election Predictions |
|
Oct 11
1997
|
Feb 9,
2002#
|
|
Feb 6/7
Morgan
Poll
|
Feb 6/7
The Australian
Newspoll |
Feb 3
Sunday Mail
Poll |
|
% |
% |
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
51.5 |
50.4 |
|
50 |
52.5 |
50.5 |
|
ALP |
48.5 |
49.6 |
|
50 |
47.5 |
49.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Lib. lead over ALP
|
3.0 |
+0.8 |
|
- |
+5 |
+1 |
# - Figures provided by the South Australian Electoral Commission.
Victorian State Election November 30, 2002: Finding
No 3583
|
Victorian |
|
ELECTION RESULT Victorian State Election
Predictions |
|
|
|
Morgan Poll |
|
|
|
|
|
Final Poll |
Special Election
Eve/Day Poll |
Newspoll |
Saulwick |
|
Sept 18
1999
|
Nov 30
2002
|
Nov 27/28 |
Nov 29/30 |
Nov 27/28 |
Nov 29 |
|
|
|
(Herald Sun & F/R) |
(www.roymorgan.com) |
(The Australian) |
(The Age) |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ALP |
45.5 |
47.9 |
48.5 +0.6 |
46 -1.9 |
48 +0.1 |
39 -8.9 |
|
Liberal |
42.2 |
33.9 |
33.5 -0.4 |
33.5 -0.4 |
35 +1.1 |
29 -4.5 |
|
National |
4.9 |
4.3 |
2.5 -1.8 |
3 -1.3 |
3 -1.3 |
2 -2.3 |
|
Greens |
1.1 |
9.7 |
11.5 +1.8 |
12 +2.3 |
8 -1.7 |
8 -1.7 |
|
Others |
6.3 |
4.2 |
4 -0.2 |
5.5 +1.3 |
6 +1.8 |
6 +1.8 |
|
Can't Say |
|
|
|
|
|
16 |
|
ALP lead over Lib. |
|
+14 |
+15 |
+12.5 |
+13 |
+10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average Error |
|
|
0.9 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
|
|
