Following a year that has seen War in Iraq and a focus on arresting terrorism, just under half of all Australians surveyed (45%, down 31%) expect that next year will be a troubled year with much international discord, while 49% (up 27%) expect more of the same. Forty-seven percent of New Zealanders (down 21%) also expect next year will be troubled, while 47% (up 20%) expect more of the same.

From a domestic standpoint, Australians were optimistic about what the coming year holds. Sixty-eight percent (up 17% since the year 2002) of Australian respondents aged 14 and over expect the coming year to be better than the previous one, with 15% (down 18%) expecting a worse year and the balance (17%, up 1%) expecting it will be the same or unable to say.

By comparison, 59% (down 4% since 2002) of New Zealanders said they expect next year to be better than this year. For the first time since 1994, New Zealanders were less optimistic than their Australian counterparts — 13.5% of New Zealand respondents (down 0.5%) said they expect 2003 to be worse, with 27.5% (up 4.5%) saying it would be the same or didn’t know.

Fewer New Zealanders (19%, down 5% since 2002) expect 2004 to be one of economic prosperity, with 14% (down 3%) expecting a year of economic difficulty. Sixty-seven percent of New Zealanders expect 2004 to be the same or were unable to say.

Respondents from both Australia and New Zealand were less likely to predict an increase in strikes and industrial disputes next year with most predicting the level of industrial action will remain the same. Fewer New Zealanders predicted an increase in industrial action in 2004 (28%, down 15%) as did Australians (31%, down 9%). Only 7% (down 1%) of New Zealanders said they expect industrial disputes will decrease in 2004, with most (65%, up 16%) saying the level of industrial disputes would stay the same (or don’t know). Only 5% (up 1%) of Australians expect industrial disputes will decrease in 2004, with two-thirds (64%) saying the same or don’t know.

For the Australian survey, an Australian-wide cross-section of 626 men and women aged 14 or over was interviewed by telephone on December 28-29, 2003. For the New Zealand survey, a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 968 men and women aged 14 or over was interviewed by telephone on November 20-30, 2003.

1. Next Year Compared To This Year In General

Respondents were first asked: “As far as you're concerned, do you think 2004 will be better or worse than 2003?"

The following table shows that in Australia, 68% (up 17% since December 2002) expect the coming year to be better than this year, with 15% (down 18%) expecting it to be worse and 17% (up 1%) expecting it to be the same, or being unable to say.

Among New Zealand respondents, 59% (down 4% since 2002) expect the coming year to be better, while 13.5% (down 0.5%) expect the coming year to be worse and 27.5% (up 4.5%) expect 2004 to be the same as 2003 or don’t know.

Expect Next Year to be . . .	Total Australia
	1982	1983	1984	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Better	32	57	57	52	36	39	47	43	33	54	42	60	65	53
Worse	46	19	18	24	41	40	31	35	49	26	36	18	16	18
Same/Don't know	22	24	25	24	23	21	22	22	18	20	22	22	19	29
	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Expect Next Year to be	Total Australia (continued)							Analysis by Gender and Age
	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	Men	Women	14-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Better	50	55	49	46	53	51	68	68	68	78	78	65	60.5
Worse	22	20	21	21	26	33	15	14	16	10	8	18	18.5
Same/Don't know	28	25	30	33	21	16	17	18	16	12	14	17	21
	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Expect Next Year to be	Total New Zealand										Analysis by Gender and Age
	1991	1992	1993	1994	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	Men	Women	14-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Better	33	46	46	61	62	56	62	65	63	59	57	61	73	75	58	43
Worse	38	20	12	12	16	10	6	11	14	13.5	16	11	11	11	11	18
Same/Don't know	29	34	42	27	22	34	32	24	23	27.5	27	28	16	14	31	39
	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Younger Australians (14-24 year olds — 78%, 25-34 year olds — 28%) were more likely than older Australians (35-49 year olds —65%, 50+ year olds — 60.5%) to predict that next year will be better.

Similarly in New Zealand, younger people were more optimistic about 2004 than older people. Seventy-three percent of New Zealanders aged 14-24 and 75% of those aged 25-34 expect 2004 to be better, compared with 58% of those aged 35-49 and 43% of those aged 50 or over.

2. Economic Prosperity or Economic Difficulty Next Year?

Respondents were asked: “Compared with this year, in your opinion, will next year be a year of economic prosperity, economic difficulty, or about the same?”

The following table shows that an increased proportion of Australians expect 2004 to bring economic prosperity, with fewer Australians expecting it to be a year of economic difficulty. Twenty-three percent of Australians (down 11% since 2002) expect the following year to be a year of economic difficulty, with 21% (up 10%) expecting it to be a year of economic prosperity and 56% (up 1%) expecting it to be the same, or being unable to say.

In New Zealand, 14% (down 3% since 2002) expect next year to be a year of economic difficulty, while 19% (down 5%) expect it to be a year of economic prosperity and 67% (up 8%) expect 2004 to be the same as 2003 or don’t know.

Next Year Will See . .	Total Australia							Analysis by Gender and Age
	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	Men	Women	14-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Economic difficulty	20	29	28	25	32	34	23	20	26	13	23	28	24
Economic prosperity	15	15	18	11	14	11	21	24	17	20	22	16	24
Same/ Don't know	65	56	54	64	54	55	56	56	57	67	55	56	52
	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Next Year Will See . . .	Total New Zealand										Analysis by Gender and Age
	1991	1992	1993	1994	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	Men	Women	14-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Economic difficulty	48	27	19	12	28	13	12	17	17	14	15	12	11	10	13	18
Economic prosperity	6	8	11	26	20	16	30	26	24	19	23	16	18	23	19	19
Same/Don't know	46	65	70	62	52	71	58	57	59	67	62	72	71	67	68	63
	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

In both countries, men (Australia — 24% and New Zealand — 23%) were more likely than women (Australia — 17% and New Zealand — 16%) to expect next year to be a year of economic prosperity.

3. Strikes and Industrial Disputes Next Year

Respondents were asked: “As far as you are concerned, do you think that next year, strikes and industrial disputes in this country will increase, decrease, or remain the same?”

The following table shows that 31% (down 9% since 2002) of Australians expect more strikes and industrial disputes over the coming year, while 5% (up 1%) expect a decrease in strikes and industrial disputes and 64% (up 8%) expect industrial disputes to remain the same or don’t know.

In New Zealand, 28% (down 15% since last year) expect more strikes and industrial disputes next year, while 7% (down 1%) expect a decrease in industrial disputes. Sixty five percent (up 16%) expect strikes and industrial disputes to remain the same or don’t know.

Industrial Disputes Will . . .	Total Australia
	1982	1983	1984	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Increase	48	37	32	44	37	36	33	36	44	32	57	27	43	43
Decrease	16	16	10	11	12	11	12	17	11	19	11	13	9	9
Same / Don't know	36	47	58	45	51	53	55	47	45	49	32	60	48	48
	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Industrial Disputes Will . . .	Total Australia (continued)							Analysis by Gender and Age
	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	Men	Women	14-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Increase	43	33	43	35	46	40	31	30	33	43	36	31	22
Decrease	6	14	8	9	6	4	5	5	6	8	4	4	6
Same / Don't know	51	53	49	56	48	56	64	65	61	49	60	65	72
	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Industrial Disputes Will . . .	Total New Zealand										Analysis by Gender and Age
	1991	1992	1993	1994	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	Men	Women	14-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Increase	47	43	27	31	31	25	38	51	43	28	30	26	30	32	24	28
Decrease	15	12	12	14	8	7	7	9	8	7	8	6	9	6	8	5
Same / Don't know	38	45	61	55	61	68	55	40	49	65	62	68	61	62	68	67
	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

4. The Year Ahead Internationally - a Peaceful Year or a Troubled Year?

Respondents were asked: “Do you think next year will be a peaceful year more or less free of international dispute, a troubled year with much international discord, or remain the same?”

The following table shows a large fall in the number of respondents in both Australia and New Zealand who expect a troubled year internationally. In Australia, 45% (down 31% since 2002) expected a troubled year ahead, while only 6% (up 4%) predict a peaceful 2004. Forty nine percent (up 27%) expect next year to be the same as this year or didn’t know.

In New Zealand, the proportion expecting a troubled year has decreased significantly since last year (47% down 21% since December 2002), while 6% (up 1%) expect a peaceful year ahead and 47% (up 20%) expect next year to be the same as this year or don’t know.

The Year Ahead Internationally will be . . .	Total Australia
	1982	1983	1984	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Troubled year	39	58	49	41	34	46	23	28	61	33	41	29	29	28
Peaceful year	10	5	7	9	8	9	18	21	6	14	10	13	12	12
Same  Don't know	51	37	44	50	58	45	59	51	33	53	49	58	59	60
	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

The Year Ahead Internationally Will be . . .	Australia							Analysis by Gender and Age
	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	Men	Women	14-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Troubled year	35	43	40	39	53	76	45	46	43	37	34	50	50
Peaceful year	7	10	10	8	10	2	6	6	6	10	7	5	3
Same/ Don't know	58	47	50	53	37	22	49	48	51	53	59	45	47
	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

The Year Ahead Internationally Will be . . .	Total New Zealand										Analysis by Gender and Age
	1991	1992	1993	1994	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	Men	Women	14-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Troubled year	33	40	26	28	49	35	27	54	68	47	45	49	31	49	46	55
Peaceful year	11	8	7	10	7	8	9	9	5	6	7	5	11	5	7	4
Same/Don't know	56	52	67	62	44	57	64	36	27	47	48	46	58	46	47	41
	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100