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Latham's Honeymoon Period Continues: ALP - 54%, L-NP - 46%

Finding No. 3699 - December 27, 2003

In mid December, the ALP with Mark Latham as leader continued to enjoy a honeymoon, with the ALP increasing their lead over the Government. Primary support for the ALP rose 1.5% to 42.5%, while support for the Coalition rose 0.5% to 42%, the latest Morgan Poll finds.

The increase in primary support for both major parties saw a fall in support for Other Parties and Independent candidates (down 2.5% to 3.5%). Amongst the minor parties, support for The Greens was 7% (up 1%), Australian Democrats 2.5% (unchanged) and One Nation 2.5% (down 0.5%).

On a two-party preferred basis, support for the ALP was 54% (up 1.5%) with the Coalition at 46% (down 1.5%). If a Federal election had been held in early December, the ALP would have won on minor party preferences.

Gary Morgan says:

"The ALP's honeymoon depends on how the Labor Party unites behind Mark Latham.

"Michele Levine put this clearly in the January/February issue of The New Investor:

'Despite John Howard's belief that 'the ALP is the most bitterly divided it has been in seven years', a major issue for the Government is the very real possibility that the ALP will unite behind Latham. A united ALP with a reinvigorated position on local and international issues could see a 'new' Labor emerge as a real force to be reckoned with.' "

During the polling period:

ALP Leader Mark Latham appointed former leader Simon Crean as Shadow Treasurer. A new shadow portfolio of Homeland Security was created, headed by Robert McClelland.
Treasury's mid-year economic and fiscal update saw the estimated Budget surplus rise from $2.2 billion to $4.6 billion, creating speculation about election-year tax cuts.
Australian Democrats Leader Andrew Bartlett decided to retain his position as Leader of the Party, despite his drunken clash with a Government Senator. The Party's Senate team agreed to support his decision.
Saddam Hussein was captured in Iraq.

Preferences of supporters of all minor parties favoured the Opposition: The Greens (ALP — 92.5% cf L-NP — 7.5%), Australian Democrats (ALP — 73.5% cf L-NP — 26.5%), Other Parties and Independent Candidates (ALP — 72.5% cf L-NP — 27.5%) and One Nation (ALP — 70.5% cf L-NP — 29.5%).

This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of December 13/14 & 20/21, 2003, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,863 electors. Electors were asked: "If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?" Of all electors surveyed, 6% (down 1%) did not name a party.

For further information:

Gary Morgan: Office: (03) 9224 5213 Mobile: 0411 129 094 Home: (03) 9419 3242

VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

PRIMARY VOTE	L-NP	ALP	Aust. Dem.	The Greens	One Nation	Ind./ Others
Election March 2, 1996	47.3 (8.6)	38.8	6.8	1.7	N/A	5.4
Election October 3, 1998¹	39.5 (5.3)	40.1	5.1	2.1	8.5	4.7
Election November 10, 2001	43 (5.6)	37.8	5.4	4.4	4.3	5.1

MORGAN POLL 2003
November 8/9 & November 15/16	42.5 (3.5)	35.5	3	9.5	3	6.5
November 22/23	42 (2)	38	4	8	3	5
November 29/30	40 (3.5)	38	3.5	9	4.5	5
December 6/7	41.5 (2.5)	41	2.5	6	3	6
December 13/14 & December 20/21	42 (2.5)	42.5	2.5	7	2.5	3.5
Note: National Party results are in brackets # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution ¹ October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE
	L-NP	ALP
Election March 2, 1996	53.6	46.4
Election October 3, 1998¹	49	51
Election November 10, 2001	51	49

MORGAN POLL 2003
November 8/9 & November 15/16	50.5	49.5
November 22/23	48	52
November 29/30	48	52
December 6/7	47.5	52.5
December 13/14 & December 20/21	46	54
¹ For the October 3, 1998 Federal election the L-NP didn't contest the Newcastle supplementary election. For Newcastle the L-NP "two-Party" estimate includes those who didn't vote ALP or give their preference to the ALP. If the Newcastle two-Party preferred vote for the October 3, 1998 election is excluded the Australia-wide "two-Party" preferred vote is L-NP - 49.0% cf ALP - 51.0%

TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES
	November 22/23		November 29/30		December 6/7		December 13/14 & December 20/21
MORGAN POLL	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP
Australian Democrats #	18.5	81.5	32.5	67.5	25	75	26.5	73.5
The Greens	8.5	91.5	20.5	79.5	15.5	84.5	7.5	92.5
One Nation #	48	52	45.5	54.5	66	34	29.5	70.5
Independent/Other	48.5	51.5	35	65	36	64	27.5	72.5
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution Sample: 1,863 electors interviewed face-to-face on December 13/14 & 20/21, 2003. 6% (down 1%) did not name a party.

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

Finding No. 3699 is taken from Computer Report No. 1921

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the
ONLY Australian or New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand
has this qualification.