January Surge in Consumer Confidence with New Year Sales
| Article No. 292 -
January 19, 2004 |
The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating climbed 5.6 points in January to 126.0 in the midst of the new-year sales. This result is 16.4 points higher than the January average (average over 29 years: 109.6) and is the highest January result on record.
The rise in Consumer Confidence in January was primarily driven by a large rise in the proportion of Australians who think that now is a good time to buy major household items, such as electrical appliances or furniture. After falling in December, January saw sixty-three percent (up 16%) of Australians saying now is a good time to buy while 13% (down 7%) say now is a bad time to buy major household items.
Both short- and long-term economic predictions improved in January. Forty-five percent (up 4%) of Australians expect the nation to experience good economic conditions over the coming year and 18% (down 3%) expect bad economic times. Over the longer-term, 35% (up 3%) expect Australia to have good times financially over the next five years and 14% (down 3%) expect Australia to have bad times financially over the same period.
Australians' analysis of their personal financial situations was down slightly in December. Thirty-two percent (down 2%) say their personal financial situation is better now than it was this time last year, with 29% (up 4%) saying they are now worse off. Looking ahead, 43% (down 1%) expect to be better off financially this time next year while 14% (up 1%) expect to be worse off.
The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 983 face-to-face interviews conducted Australia-wide on the weekends of January 3/4 & 10/11, 2004.
For further information:
Michele Levine: Office: (03) 9224 52135 Mobile: 0411 129 093
|
Monthly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating Figures |
|
Year |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Yearly
Average |
|
1973 |
|
|
119.2 |
|
|
117.0 |
|
|
108.4 |
|
|
103.8 |
112.1 |
|
1974 |
|
|
103.2 |
|
|
95.6 |
|
|
90.6 |
|
|
92.2 |
95.4 |
|
1975 |
|
|
114.0 |
|
|
104.2 |
|
|
100.8 |
|
|
103.0 |
105.5 |
|
1976 |
113.6 |
|
107.0 |
110.2 |
|
107.0 |
105.6 |
|
108.0 |
108.8 |
101.2 |
|
107.7 |
|
1977 |
104.2 |
|
98.6 |
101.6 |
|
103.8 |
99.4 |
|
105.0 |
104.4 |
109.4 |
|
103.3 |
|
1978 |
119.2 |
|
114.8 |
110.8 |
|
109.6 |
101.6 |
|
91.2 |
104.4 |
103.6 |
|
106.9 |
|
1979 |
110.2 |
|
106.2 |
109.4 |
|
92.6 |
90.2 |
|
99.4 |
97.6 |
98.8 |
|
100.6 |
|
1980 |
98.8 |
|
100.8 |
97.4 |
|
101.6 |
98.2 |
|
104.4 |
109.8 |
106.4 |
|
102.2 |
|
1981 |
113.4 |
|
111.8 |
101.8 |
|
100.8 |
95.0 |
|
92.4 |
98.2 |
98.0 |
|
101.4 |
|
1982 |
92.4 |
|
91.8 |
93.6 |
|
92.2 |
80.4 |
|
84.6 |
81.2 |
75.2 |
|
86.4 |
|
1983 |
87.8 |
|
97.4 |
96.0 |
|
95.4 |
98.2 |
|
100.6 |
106.4 |
113.2 |
|
99.4 |
|
1984 |
124.6 |
|
120.8 |
120.8 |
|
115.6 |
116.6 |
|
118.2 |
117.8 |
114.6 |
|
118.6 |
|
1985 |
114.8 |
|
110.2 |
99.4 |
|
98.0 |
100.8 |
|
106.8 |
107.8 |
94.8 |
|
104.1 |
|
1986 |
105.4 |
|
103.8 |
94.6 |
94.8 |
91.6 |
79.8 |
79.8 |
78.8 |
89.8 |
85.6 |
88.8 |
90.3 |
|
1987 |
90.4 |
88.0 |
86.8 |
90.8 |
91.8 |
93.4 |
98.6 |
96.4 |
94.8 |
104.0 |
87.2 |
93.0 |
92.9 |
|
1988 |
100.4 |
98.8 |
103.6 |
106.2 |
104.0 |
104.0 |
107.6 |
108.2 |
112.4 |
108.8 |
104.2 |
105.8 |
105.3 |
|
1989 |
105.0 |
94.6 |
88.4 |
88.4 |
87.4 |
72.8 |
73.0 |
78.8 |
82.0 |
79.0 |
81.0 |
80.0 |
84.2 |
|
1990 |
101.6 |
95.6 |
83.4 |
88.3 |
84.7 |
83.1 |
79.6 |
83.9 |
75.6 |
71.4 |
73.1 |
71.3 |
82.6 |
|
1991 |
78.5 |
85.4 |
85.0 |
87.2 |
87.7 |
88.6 |
98.1 |
95.2 |
93.3 |
95.8 |
91.1 |
83.0 |
89.1 |
|
1992 |
93.6 |
95.9 |
96.2 |
105.4 |
101.6 |
97.7 |
95.4 |
96.9 |
96.8 |
101.2 |
93.6 |
92.9 |
97.3 |
|
1993 |
100.8 |
100.4 |
105.9 |
102.3 |
102.2 |
96.2 |
96.6 |
100.8 |
90.2 |
103.5 |
111.9 |
108.5 |
101.6 |
|
1994 |
120.5 |
127.5 |
125.7 |
127.7 |
125.2 |
128.0 |
127.6 |
123.8 |
123.6 |
124.6 |
118.1 |
118.0 |
124.2 |
|
1995 |
112.3 |
112.4 |
113.9 |
114.7 |
112.0 |
112.4 |
110.2 |
115.5 |
111.7 |
116.2 |
114.3 |
111.9 |
113.1 |
|
1996 |
116.7 |
119.1 |
123.7 |
121.5 |
118.8 |
117.8 |
112.3 |
114.4 |
113.2 |
111.3 |
113.4 |
113.2 |
116.3 |
|
1997 |
119.2 |
115.1 |
116.2 |
112.5 |
114.2 |
115.5 |
110.7 |
111.7 |
112.4 |
112.8 |
111.6 |
110.6 |
113.5 |
|
1998 |
117.8 |
116.0 |
114.9 |
110.2 |
114.4 |
109.8 |
107.6 |
111.1 |
111.0 |
113.9 |
114.2 |
114.7 |
112.8 |
|
1999 |
122.1 |
121.8 |
122.5 |
119.6 |
122.5 |
122.2 |
118.2 |
122.8 |
122.3 |
119.6 |
122.8 |
122.2 |
121.6 |
|
2000 |
122.3 |
119.9 |
112.9 |
116.6 |
112.0 |
108.7 |
114.8 |
119.1 |
115.8 |
115.6 |
110.3 |
112.3 |
115.0 |
|
2001 |
119.9 |
109.5 |
106.2 |
103.6 |
107.4 |
108.6 |
115.3 |
116.4 |
120.9* |
106.8 |
109.4 |
113.3 |
111.4 |
|
2002 |
124.8 |
123.0 |
122.3 |
123.2 |
124.0 |
116.4 |
123.4 |
119.9 |
122.1 |
117.2 |
114.0 |
109.6 |
120.0 |
|
2003 |
122.5 |
113.4 |
109.9 |
120.8 |
127.3 |
122.4 |
123.2 |
122.4 |
123.2 |
121.2 |
124.2 |
120.4 |
120.9 |
| 2004 |
126.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
126.0 |
|
|
|
Monthly
Average |
109.6 |
108.0 |
106.5 |
106.2 |
107.3 |
104.0 |
102.8 |
106.5 |
103.6 |
105.3 |
103.4 |
102.9 |
105.7 |
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for September 15/16, 2001, conducted by telephone, was 102.3. |
Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating*
for the component questions over the more recent surveys are as follows: |
|
2003 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Interviews |
|
1253 |
1160 |
1425 |
1336 |
1167 |
971 |
1087 |
964 |
1116 |
1097 |
1198 |
|
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? |
|
Over the past year |
better off |
|
34 |
33 |
36 |
34 |
32 |
30 |
32 |
35 |
31 |
34 |
34 |
|
|
worse off |
|
28 |
32 |
28 |
28 |
26 |
33 |
28 |
24 |
31 |
28 |
25 |
|
QUESTION 1 difference |
|
6 |
1 |
8 |
6 |
6 |
-3 |
4 |
11 |
0 |
6 |
9 |
|
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now? |
|
|
better off |
|
45 |
45 |
45 |
46 |
41 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
40 |
44 |
44 |
|
|
worse off |
|
14 |
17 |
14 |
12 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
14 |
18 |
15 |
13 |
|
QUESTION 2 difference |
|
31 |
28 |
31 |
34 |
27 |
25 |
26 |
27 |
22 |
29 |
31 |
|
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in Australia as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we'll
have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? |
|
|
good times |
|
24 |
25 |
33 |
42 |
37 |
44 |
42 |
40 |
45 |
42 |
41 |
|
|
bad times |
|
37 |
41 |
27 |
18 |
20 |
20 |
22 |
19 |
21 |
19 |
21 |
|
QUESTION 3 difference |
|
-13 |
-16 |
6 |
24 |
17 |
24 |
20 |
21 |
24 |
23 |
20 |
|
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in Australia as a whole, we'll have continuous
good times during the next 5 years of so - or we'll have bad times - or some good and some bad? |
|
|
good times |
|
28 |
30 |
37 |
40 |
33 |
38 |
33 |
34 |
34 |
36 |
32 |
|
|
bad times |
|
22 |
24 |
16 |
12 |
16 |
16 |
18 |
17 |
21 |
17 |
17 |
|
QUESTION 4 difference |
|
6 |
6 |
21 |
28 |
17 |
22 |
15 |
17 |
13 |
19 |
15 |
|
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time - or a bad time - for people to buy major household times? |
|
|
good time to buy |
|
52 |
49 |
52 |
54 |
56 |
59 |
59 |
53 |
59 |
58 |
47 |
|
|
bad time to buy |
|
15 |
19 |
14 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
12 |
14 |
20 |
|
QUESTION 5 difference |
|
37 |
30 |
38 |
43 |
45 |
48 |
47 |
40 |
47 |
44 |
27 |
|
|
|
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating |
|
113.4 |
109.9 |
120.8 |
127.0 |
122.4 |
123.2 |
122.4 |
123.2 |
121.2 |
124.2 |
120.4 |
|
|
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give a favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions. |
Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating*
for the component questions over the more recent surveys are as follows: |
|
2004 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Interviews |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? |
|
Over the past year |
better off |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
worse off |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
QUESTION 1 difference |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now? |
|
|
better off |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
worse off |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
QUESTION 2 difference |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in Australia as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we?ll
have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? |
|
|
good times |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
bad times |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
QUESTION 3 difference |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in Australia as a whole, we?ll have continuous good times
during the next 5 years of so> or we?ll have bad times> or some good and some bad? |
|
|
good times |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
bad times |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
QUESTION 4 difference |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time> or a bad time> for people to buy major household times? |
|
|
good time to buy |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
bad time to buy |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
QUESTION 5 difference |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give a favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.
|
The Morgan Poll is conducted by the
ONLY Australian or New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand
has this qualification.
|
