Consumer Confidence Rises in July - Highest Recorded July Result
| Article No. 332 -
July 10, 2004 |
In July, the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was up 3.3 points to 128.9 points. This is the second highest rating for 2004 and the highest July result since first surveyed by Roy Morgan Research in 1976 - and 25.2 points higher than the July average of 103.7.
In July, two months after the Federal Budget, Australians were positive about their own financial situation and prospects. 36% (up 1%) of Australians say their personal financial situation is better now than it was last year, with 23% (down 3%) saying they are now worse off. Looking ahead 43% (down 1%) of Australians expect to be better off financially this time next year, while 13% (up 1%) expect to be worse off.
There was a rise in optimism in Australians’ views about the country’s economic future. The proportion of people expecting Australia to experience good economic conditions over the next five years was 37% (up 2%) in July, with only 15% expecting bad economic times over the same period.
However, the increase in Consumer Confidence was driven by expectations for good economic conditions in the next 12 months, and consumers' perception of key buying conditions - whether now is a good time to buy major household items, such as electrical appliances or furniture. 62% (up 6%) of Australians said now was a good time to buy — the second highest result for 2004. Only 10% (down 3%) said now is a bad time to buy major household items. Australians expecting good economic times over the coming year was 44% (up 3%) with only 16% (down 2%) expecting bad times.
The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate for the June Quarter shows unemployment at 8.3%, down 0.6% from the March Quarter (see finding 3754 www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2004/3754/ ).
The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,246 face-to-face interviews conducted Australia-wide on the weekends of July 3/4, 2004.
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating
|
Monthly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating Figures |
|
Year |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Yearly
Average |
|
1973 |
|
|
119.2 |
|
|
117.0 |
|
|
108.4 |
|
|
103.8 |
112.1 |
|
1974 |
|
|
103.2 |
|
|
95.6 |
|
|
90.6 |
|
|
92.2 |
95.4 |
|
1975 |
|
|
114.0 |
|
|
104.2 |
|
|
100.8 |
|
|
103.0 |
105.5 |
|
1976 |
113.6 |
|
107.0 |
110.2 |
|
107.0 |
105.6 |
|
108.0 |
108.8 |
101.2 |
|
107.7 |
|
1977 |
104.2 |
|
98.6 |
101.6 |
|
103.8 |
99.4 |
|
105.0 |
104.4 |
109.4 |
|
103.3 |
|
1978 |
119.2 |
|
114.8 |
110.8 |
|
109.6 |
101.6 |
|
91.2 |
104.4 |
103.6 |
|
106.9 |
|
1979 |
110.2 |
|
106.2 |
109.4 |
|
92.6 |
90.2 |
|
99.4 |
97.6 |
98.8 |
|
100.6 |
|
1980 |
98.8 |
|
100.8 |
97.4 |
|
101.6 |
98.2 |
|
104.4 |
109.8 |
106.4 |
|
102.2 |
|
1981 |
113.4 |
|
111.8 |
101.8 |
|
100.8 |
95.0 |
|
92.4 |
98.2 |
98.0 |
|
101.4 |
|
1982 |
92.4 |
|
91.8 |
93.6 |
|
92.2 |
80.4 |
|
84.6 |
81.2 |
75.2 |
|
86.4 |
|
1983 |
87.8 |
|
97.4 |
96.0 |
|
95.4 |
98.2 |
|
100.6 |
106.4 |
113.2 |
|
99.4 |
|
1984 |
124.6 |
|
120.8 |
120.8 |
|
115.6 |
116.6 |
|
118.2 |
117.8 |
114.6 |
|
118.6 |
|
1985 |
114.8 |
|
110.2 |
99.4 |
|
98.0 |
100.8 |
|
106.8 |
107.8 |
94.8 |
|
104.1 |
|
1986 |
105.4 |
|
103.8 |
94.6 |
94.8 |
91.6 |
79.8 |
79.8 |
78.8 |
89.8 |
85.6 |
88.8 |
90.3 |
|
1987 |
90.4 |
88.0 |
86.8 |
90.8 |
91.8 |
93.4 |
98.6 |
96.4 |
94.8 |
104.0 |
87.2 |
93.0 |
92.9 |
|
1988 |
100.4 |
98.8 |
103.6 |
106.2 |
104.0 |
104.0 |
107.6 |
108.2 |
112.4 |
108.8 |
104.2 |
105.8 |
105.3 |
|
1989 |
105.0 |
94.6 |
88.4 |
88.4 |
87.4 |
72.8 |
73.0 |
78.8 |
82.0 |
79.0 |
81.0 |
80.0 |
84.2 |
|
1990 |
101.6 |
95.6 |
83.4 |
88.3 |
84.7 |
83.1 |
79.6 |
83.9 |
75.6 |
71.4 |
73.1 |
71.3 |
82.6 |
|
1991 |
78.5 |
85.4 |
85.0 |
87.2 |
87.7 |
88.6 |
98.1 |
95.2 |
93.3 |
95.8 |
91.1 |
83.0 |
89.1 |
|
1992 |
93.6 |
95.9 |
96.2 |
105.4 |
101.6 |
97.7 |
95.4 |
96.9 |
96.8 |
101.2 |
93.6 |
92.9 |
97.3 |
|
1993 |
100.8 |
100.4 |
105.9 |
102.3 |
102.2 |
96.2 |
96.6 |
100.8 |
90.2 |
103.5 |
111.9 |
108.5 |
101.6 |
|
1994 |
120.5 |
127.5 |
125.7 |
127.7 |
125.2 |
128.0 |
127.6 |
123.8 |
123.6 |
124.6 |
118.1 |
118.0 |
124.2 |
|
1995 |
112.3 |
112.4 |
113.9 |
114.7 |
112.0 |
112.4 |
110.2 |
115.5 |
111.7 |
116.2 |
114.3 |
111.9 |
113.1 |
|
1996 |
116.7 |
119.1 |
123.7 |
121.5 |
118.8 |
117.8 |
112.3 |
114.4 |
113.2 |
111.3 |
113.4 |
113.2 |
116.3 |
|
1997 |
119.2 |
115.1 |
116.2 |
112.5 |
114.2 |
115.5 |
110.7 |
111.7 |
112.4 |
112.8 |
111.6 |
110.6 |
113.5 |
|
1998 |
117.8 |
116.0 |
114.9 |
110.2 |
114.4 |
109.8 |
107.6 |
111.1 |
111.0 |
113.9 |
114.2 |
114.7 |
112.8 |
|
1999 |
122.1 |
121.8 |
122.5 |
119.6 |
122.5 |
122.2 |
118.2 |
122.8 |
122.3 |
119.6 |
122.8 |
122.2 |
121.6 |
|
2000 |
122.3 |
119.9 |
112.9 |
116.6 |
112.0 |
108.7 |
114.8 |
119.1 |
115.8 |
115.6 |
110.3 |
112.3 |
115.0 |
|
2001 |
119.9 |
109.5 |
106.2 |
103.6 |
107.4 |
108.6 |
115.3 |
116.4 |
120.9* |
106.8 |
109.4 |
113.3 |
111.4 |
|
2002 |
124.8 |
123.0 |
122.3 |
123.2 |
124.0 |
116.4 |
123.4 |
119.9 |
122.1 |
117.2 |
114.0 |
109.6 |
120.0 |
|
2003 |
122.5 |
113.4 |
109.9 |
120.8 |
127.0 |
122.4 |
123.2 |
122.4 |
123.2 |
121.2 |
124.2 |
120.4 |
120.9 |
| 2004 |
126.0 |
126.8 |
130.4 |
124.4 |
125.0 |
125.6 |
128.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
126.7 |
|
|
|
Monthly
Average |
109.6 |
109.1 |
107.7 |
106.9 |
108.2 |
104.6 |
103.7 |
106.5 |
103.6 |
105.3 |
103.4 |
102.9 |
105.7 |
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for September 15/16, 2001, conducted by telephone, was 102.3. |
Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating*
for the component questions over the more recent surveys are as follows: |
|
2003 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Interviews |
|
|
|
|
|
1167 |
971 |
1087 |
964 |
1116 |
|
|
|
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? |
|
Over the past year |
better off |
|
|
|
|
|
32 |
30 |
32 |
35 |
31 |
|
|
|
|
worse off |
|
|
|
|
|
26 |
33 |
28 |
24 |
31 |
|
|
|
QUESTION 1 difference |
|
|
|
|
|
6 |
-3 |
4 |
11 |
0 |
|
|
|
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now? |
|
|
better off |
|
|
|
|
|
41 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
40 |
|
|
|
|
worse off |
|
|
|
|
|
14 |
15 |
16 |
14 |
18 |
|
|
|
QUESTION 2 difference |
|
|
|
|
|
27 |
25 |
26 |
27 |
22 |
|
|
|
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in Australia as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we?ll
have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? |
|
|
good times |
|
|
|
|
|
37 |
44 |
42 |
40 |
45 |
|
|
|
|
bad times |
|
|
|
|
|
20 |
20 |
22 |
19 |
21 |
|
|
|
QUESTION 3 difference |
|
|
|
|
|
17 |
24 |
20 |
21 |
24 |
|
|
|
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in Australia as a whole, we?ll have continuous good times
during the next 5 years of so> or we?ll have bad times> or some good and some bad? |
|
|
good times |
|
|
|
|
|
33 |
38 |
33 |
34 |
34 |
|
|
|
|
bad times |
|
|
|
|
|
16 |
16 |
18 |
17 |
21 |
|
|
|
QUESTION 4 difference |
|
|
|
|
|
17 |
22 |
15 |
17 |
13 |
|
|
|
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time> or a bad time> for people to buy major household times? |
|
|
good time to buy |
|
|
|
|
|
56 |
59 |
59 |
53 |
59 |
|
|
|
|
bad time to buy |
|
|
|
|
|
11 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
12 |
|
|
|
QUESTION 5 difference |
|
|
|
|
|
45 |
48 |
47 |
40 |
47 |
|
|
|
|
|
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating |
|
|
|
|
|
122.4 |
123.2 |
122.4 |
123.2 |
121.2 |
|
|
|
|
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give a favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.
|
Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating*
for the component questions over the more recent surveys are as follows: |
|
2004 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Interviews |
|
1142 |
1038 |
1231 |
1160 |
1092 |
1246 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? |
|
Over the past year |
better off |
|
33 |
34 |
33 |
33 |
35 |
36 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
worse off |
|
29 |
25 |
26 |
27 |
26 |
23 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
QUESTION 1 difference |
|
4 |
9 |
7 |
6 |
9 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now? |
|
|
better off |
|
44 |
46 |
42 |
42 |
44 |
43 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
worse off |
|
14 |
10 |
13 |
16 |
12 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
QUESTION 2 difference |
|
30 |
36 |
29 |
26 |
32 |
30 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in Australia as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we?ll
have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? |
|
|
good times |
|
47 |
48 |
43 |
43 |
41 |
44 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
bad times |
|
20 |
14 |
19 |
20 |
18 |
16 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
QUESTION 3 difference |
|
27 |
34 |
24 |
23 |
23 |
28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in Australia as a whole, we?ll have continuous
good times during the next 5 years of so> or we?ll have bad times> or some good and some bad? |
|
|
good times |
|
41 |
39 |
35 |
35 |
35 |
37 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
bad times |
|
17 |
13 |
18 |
15 |
14 |
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
QUESTION 4 difference |
|
24 |
26 |
17 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time> or a bad time> for people to buy major household times? |
|
|
good time to buy |
|
62 |
59 |
60 |
60 |
56 |
62 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
bad time to buy |
|
13 |
12 |
13 |
10 |
13 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
QUESTION 5 difference |
|
49 |
47 |
47 |
50 |
43 |
52 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating |
|
126.8 |
130.4 |
124.4 |
125.0 |
125.6 |
128.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give a favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions. |
|
