[Roy Morgan Research] Morgan Poll

In early January, the Federal ALP continued to gain strength with primary support for the Party rising 2.5% to 45% while support for the Government fell 2% to 40%, the latest Morgan Poll finds. This is the third Morgan Poll conducted since Mark Latham became Leader of the ALP. On a two-party preferred basis, support for the ALP was 55.5% (up 1.5%) with the Coalition at 44.5% (down 1.5%). If a Federal election had been held in early January, the ALP would have won.

Amongst the minor parties, support for The Greens was 7.5% (up 0.5%), Australian Democrats 1.5% (down 1%), One Nation 2% (down 0.5%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 4% (up 0.5%).

During the polling period:

Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research in which respondents gave their reason for voting was conducted on on January 10/11, 2004.

Among ALP supporters, comments about new leader Mark Latham were positive: "The new guy is good. He's a straightforward sort of person. He has social security issues on his agenda", "The new leader might make a difference to the Labor Party", "I'll vote for Mark Latham because he's got guts", "It's time for a new generation in Parliament. Mr Latham seems to speak what's on his mind."

Some ALP supporters typically preferred the Party's policies and felt that it was the better party to look after people. Comments included: "I agree with their policies on many issues at the moment", "Because I believe in their political philosophy", "I believe in people's rights and that's only possible through Labor. Labor is for the small people", "They care more about social issues."

Other ALP supporters were not happy with the Government and felt that it was time for a change: "Because I'm not entirely impressed with the Government", "We need a change of direction on key issues", "We need a change of Government. I'm not happy with the present one", "A change of Government would be a good thing for me and for the country", "I'm not happy with the Government's Medicare and education policies, mainly university fees."

Liberal Party supporters were typically satisfied with the Government's performance, particularly on the economic front, and felt that the Prime Minister was doing a good job. Comments included: "I'm happy with their performance. They offer a stable Government and economy", "Because they have done a good job. They're good managers and the Opposition is not up to scratch at the moment", "I'm satisfied with their policies and how they are running the country - doing a fabulous job on the whole", "I think Mr Howard is doing a great job", "They're good financial managers. They have economic credibility."

Other Liberal Party supporters were against the Labor Party and felt that the ALP were not in a position to run the country. Comments included: "Labor has nothing to offer", "I'm not convinced the Opposition would do better", "Labor has to establish themselves more, ie after changing leadership ", "I don't trust the Labor Party", "If the Labor Party can't sort out their own affairs they can't run a country."

Preferences of supporters of One Nation (L-NP — 63% cf ALP — 37%) favoured the Government. Preferences of supporters of The Greens (ALP — 89.5% cf L-NP — 10.5%), Australian Democrats (ALP — 80.5% cf L-NP — 19.5%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates (ALP — 51% cf L-NP — 49%) favoured the Opposition.

This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of January 3/4 & 10/11, 2004, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,743 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 5% (down 1%) did not name a party.

PRIMARY VOTE	L-NP	ALP	Aust. Dem. #	The Greens	One Nation #	Ind./ Others
Election March 2, 1996	47.3 (8.6)	38.8	6.8	1.7	N/A	5.4
Election October 3, 1998 ¹	39.5 (5.3)	40.1	5.1	2.1	8.5	4.7
Election November 10, 200¹	43 (5.6)	37.8	5.4	4.4	4.3	5.1

MORGAN POLL 2003
November 22/23	42 (2)	38	4	8	3	5
November 29/30	40 (3.5)	38	3.5	9	4.5	5
December 6/7	41.5 (2.5)	41	2.5	6	3	6
December 13/14 & December 20/21	42 (2.5)	42.5	2.5	7	2.5	3.5
MORGAN POLL 2004
January 3/4 & January 10/11	40 (2)	45	1.5	7.5	2	4
Note: National Party results are in brackets # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution 1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE
	L-NP	ALP
Election March 2, 1996	53.6	46.4
Election October 3, 1998 ¹	49	51
Election November 10, 200¹	51	49

MORGAN POLL 2003
November 22/23	48	52
November 29/30	48	52
December 6/7	47.5	52.5
December 13/14 & December 20/21	46	54
MORGAN POLL 2004
January 3/4 & January 10/11	44.5	55.5
Note: National Party results are in brackets # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution 1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES
	November 29/30		December 6/7		December 13/14 & December 20/21		January 3/4 & January 10/11
MORGAN POLL	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP
Australian Democrats #	32.5	67.5	25	75	26.5	73.5	19.5	80.5
The Greens	20.5	79.5	15.5	84.5	7.5	92.5	10.5	89.5
One Nation #	45.5	54.5	66	34	29.5	70.5	63	37
Independent/Other #	35	65	36	64	27.5	72.5	49	51
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution Sample: 1,743 electors interviewed face-to-face on January 3/4 & 10/11, 2004. 5% (down 1%) did not name a party.

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the
ONLY Australian or New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand
has this qualification.

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