There was little change in Federal Voting Intention in late January, with primary support for the ALP at 44% (down 1%) and for the L-NP at 39% (down 1%), the latest Morgan Poll finds. On a two-party preferred basis, support for the ALP was 55% (down 0.5%) with the Coalition at 45% (up 0.5%). If a Federal election had been held in late January, the ALP would have won.

Amongst the minor parties, support for the Greens was 8% (up 0.5%), Australian Democrats 2.5% (up 1%), One Nation 2% (unchanged) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 4.5% (up 0.5%).

Interviewing was conducted prior to the ALP National Conference.

• The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating recorded a record high for January of 126.0 points. For full details, see Article No. 292

• A new Federal Government plan to encourage people on disability support pensions to re-enter the workforce was announced. A six-month pilot of the scheme, which would ask people to sign up for training and job search programs, would be run. The Government said that no type of disability would be targeted and participation would be voluntary. The aim was to both reduce the amount spent on disability support pensions and to provide opportunities for people to work regardless of their situation.

• In the lead-up to the next election, the Opposition announced plans for child care and family support. The ALP offered to create 20,000 child-care places, give funding for new child-care centres in outer metropolitan areas of need, and provide additional after-school places to wipe out the current waiting list. The Government last year announced $80 million partly for after-school places, the Prime Minister has promised a package for families that is likely to include a form of paid maternity leave, with child-care policies still being reviewed.
• The Prime Minister, Defence Minister Robert Hill and Defence Force chief Peter Cosgrove met with the Had of the United States Armed Forces to discuss Australia's participation in the US missile defence shield. There has been growing controversy over Australia's role, with defence experts warning that it could be a waste of money, the Opposition accusing the Government of pandering to the US in an election year, and concerns being raised that it would create tension amongst Asian neighbours.
• The Prime Minister angered teachers, parents' groups and the Opposition by claiming that parents are moving their children out of government schools because the state system is too politically correct and values-neutral. An organisation representing teachers at private schools said that Mr Howard's comments were divisive and insulting. The Opposition and the Australian Education Union said that the shift away from government schools was more to do with the Federal Government's emphasis on funding private schools than concerns about values.
• The Australia-US free trade agreement was in jeopardy as US negotiators refused to pledge any significant opening of agricultural markets. Trade Minister Mark Vaile said that he would fight hard for Australian interests but that Australia would walk away from the agreement if the specific things they wanted to achieve weren't delivered.

Preferences of supporters of One Nation (L-NP — 55% cf ALP — 45%) favoured the Government. Preferences of supporters of The Greens (ALP — 75.5% cf L-NP — 24.5%), Australian Democrats (ALP — 69% cf L-NP — 31%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates (ALP — 60.5% cf L-NP — 39.5%) favoured the Opposition.

This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of January 17/18 & 24/25, 2004, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,012 electors. Electors were asked: "If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?" Of all electors surveyed, 5.5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.