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The Federal ALP increased their lead over the Government in early February in the wake of the ALP National Conference, the latest Morgan Poll finds. Primary support for the ALP rose 4% to 48% while support for the Government fell 1% to 38%. On a two-party preferred basis, support for the ALP rose 1.5% to 56.5% with the Coalition at 43.5% (down 1.5%). If a Federal election had been held in early February, the ALP would have won easily.

Amongst the minor parties, support for the Greens was 5.5% (down 2.5%), Australian Democrats 2.5% (unchanged), One Nation 1.5% (down 0.5%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 4.5% (unchanged).

Interviewing was conducted prior to the conclusion of negotiations for the Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement.

Gary Morgan says:

"The Morgan Poll has shown the ALP to be in a winning position since Mr Latham became leader of the Party.

"As expected, telephone polls now have Labor in a winning position - two months late!

"Telephone polls are biased towards the Party people think will win, a measure the Morgan Poll has found to be slowly but steadily improving for the ALP since Mr Latham took over the Party leadership, up from 22% in November to 36% now. While the majority of Australian electors still expect the Government to win the next election, this has decreased, from 68% in November to 51% now. If this measure continues to move in Labor's direction then telephone polls will show higher support for the ALP than the Morgan Poll.

"Since the latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted, Australia and the United States have 'signed off' on the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) (subject to approval by the Australian Parliament and the US Congress).

"While the ALP stays in political point-scoring mode on side issues such as sugar's exclusion from the agreement, they will continue to maintain their clear margin in the published polls.

"However, while the latest Morgan Poll shows that Mark Latham will be in a strong position whenever the election is held, if the Senate were to reject any legislation needed to implement the FTA, Mr Howard would have the ideal trigger for a double dissolution. This would enable the L-NP to run the election campaign on the significant advantages Australia would gain from the FTA. This would be the L-NP's strongest ground."

During the polling period:

• Questions continued to be asked about the accuracy of intelligence used to justify the war in Iraq. Chief US weapons inspector in Iraq David Kay resigned, saying he believed that Saddam Hussein had not stockpiled unconventional weapons for years. US Secretary of State Colin Powell conceded that Saddam Hussein's regime might not have had weapons of mass destruction when it was attacked. US President George Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair announced inquiries into the intelligence used to justify the war.
• In Australia, Prime Minister Howard conceded that Australians might have been sent to war in Iraq on the basis of flawed intelligence but preferred to wait for the findings of a joint parliamentary committee which has been looking into Australia's intelligence services since the middle of last year. He said that Australia would never regret the decision to go to war in Iraq, that the decision was based on the intelligence that was available and that the Government did not manipulate it. Opposition Leader Mark Latham said that it was time for the Government to be open and honest about the reason Australia joined the war in Iraq.
• National Australia Bank chief executive Frank Cicutto resigned in the wake of the $360 million rogue currency trading scandal. The Bank earlier sold its stakes in AMP, HHG and St George to cover the losses.
• The ALP National Conference was held. Leader Mark Latham's opening address won approval from all areas of the Party, with strong signs that Party members are unifying behind their leader. With a theme of 'Opportunity for all', Mr Latham's address aimed to focus the political agenda on domestic issues rather than the Government's preferred platform of national security and foreign policy. Mr Latham said that while the economy was growing, there were many social problems that need to be addressed.
• Areas discussed at the ALP National Conference included: a crack down on corporate crooks, giving shareholders a vote on executive pay packages and golden handshakes; the Budget to be kept in surplus over the economic cycle, with all spending commitments fully costed and funded; dental care and reading to children policies; refugee policy; and a new portfolio headed by Lindsay Tanner to deal specifically with the breakdown of community relationships.

Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research in which respondents gave their reason for voting was conducted on on February 7/8, 2004.

ALP supporters commented with approval on Mark Latham, as well as their dislike of Prime Minister John Howard:

“I like the new Federal Leader, he shows a lot of promise. He’s a new generation and I like his ideas.”
“I don’t trust the current Prime Minister.”
“Howard has lost the plot- he doesn’t care about domestic issues.”
“Mr Latham has a bit more heart and touch with the general public. The Liberals are much too far right wing.”
“I like Mark Latham and I think he might shake things up a bit.”
“Howard is too much in bed with Bush.”
“I like the fellow travelling in the bus- Mark Latham.”
“I like Mark Latham. He has something to offer the people and he’s quite humble.”
“I’m sick of lying John Howard.”

One supporter simply said: “John Howard has to go”.

There was also dissatisfaction among ALP supporters of John Howard’s current policy decisions, in particular the War in Iraq and his immigration policy:

“I don’t like John Howard’s policies- border protection and illegal immigrants.”
“I don’t like the way the Government handled the war. I don’t think they’re giving enough money to hospitals, education and aged care infrastructure and I don’t like their foreign policy particularly with refugees.”
“I’m uncomfortable with the Prime Minister’s recent decisions in relation to Iraq and his position on public education.”
“I’m disappointed with the current Government. Particularly with their Iraq policies and health issues.”

In contrast, Liberal supporters saw John Howard as a strong leader who is able to make decisions. They supported his policies and viewed Mark Latham as lacking leadership qualities:

“I’m impressed with the way Howard does his job and the economy is moving in the right direction.”
“I believe in the Liberal Party’s policies. I think Latham is a lout. I don’t agree on his policies and he has no substance.”
“John Howard’s experience counts. Their immigration policy is good.”
“I think Howard is doing a good job and the country has benefited.”
“I have no confidence in Latham.”
“Labor are useless. They have no idea how to govern this nation, no leadership and no idea on the Australian economy.”
“I like what Howard has done. Economy is ok, national security seems ok and his handling of illegal refugees is ok by me.”
“Lack of leadership with any other party and their policies are in disarray.”
“The Liberal Party has strong leadership while the ALP has no leader yet. I don’t like the war policy but Howard is a good manager of other issues.”

Preferences of supporters of Other Parties and Independent Candidates (L-NP — 57.5% cf L-NP — 42.5%) and One Nation (L-NP — 54% cf ALP — 46%) favoured the Government. Preferences of supporters of The Greens (ALP — 81% cf L-NP — 19%) and the Australian Democrats (ALP — 61% cf L-NP — 39%) favoured the Opposition.

This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of January 31/February 1 & February 7/8, 2004, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,959 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 5.5% (unchanged) did not name a party.

For further information:
Rosie Goldup: Office: (03) 9224 5157 Mobile: 0407 294 952

VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

PRIMARY VOTE	L-NP	ALP	Aust. Dem. #	The Greens	One Nation #	Ind./ Others
Election March 2, 1996	47.3 (8.6)	38.8	6.8	1.7	N/A	5.4
Election October 3, 1998 1	39.5 (5.3)	40.1	5.1	2.1	8.5	4.7
Election November 10, 2001	43 (5.6)	37.8	5.4	4.4	4.3	5.1
MORGAN POLL 2003
December 6/7	41.5 (2.5)	41	2.5	6	3	6
December 13/14 & December 20/21	42 (2.5)	42.5	2.5	7	2.5	3.5
MORGAN POLL 2004
January 3/4 & January 10/11	40 (2)	45	1.5	7.5	2	4
January 17/18 & January 24/25	39 (3)	44	2.5	8	2	4.5
January 31/ February 1 & February 7/8	38 (3)	48	2.5	5.5	1.5	4.5
Note: National Party results are in brackets # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution 1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE
	L-NP	ALP
Election March 2, 1996	53.6	46.4
Election October 3, 1998 1	49	51
Election November 10, 2001	51	49
MORGAN POLL 2003
December 6/7	47.5	52.5
December 13/14 & December 20/21	46	54
MORGAN POLL 2004
January 3/4 & January 10/11	44.5	55.5
January 10/11 & January 24/25	45	55
January 31/ February 1 & February 7/8	43.5	56.5
Note: National Party results are in brackets # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution 1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES
	December 13/14 & December 20/21		January 3/4 & January 10/11		January 17/18 & January 24/25		Jan 31/ Feb 1 & February 7/8
MORGAN POLL	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP
Australian Democrats #	26.5	73.5	19.5	80.5	31	69	39	61
The Greens	7.5	92.5	10.5	89.5	24.5	75.5	19	81
One Nation #	29.5	70.5	63	37	55	45	54	46
Independent/ Other	27.5	72.5	49	51	39.5	60.5	57.5	42.5
# Sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution

Finding No. 3714 is taken from Computer Report No. 1932

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the
ONLY Australian or New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand
has this qualification.

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