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 In late February the Federal Government regained some of the ground lost to the Opposition, but the ALP is still in a winning position, the latest Morgan Poll finds. Primary support for the ALP fell 2.5% to 45.5% while support for the Government rose 2.5% to 40.5%. On a two-party preferred basis, support for ALP fell 1% to 55.5% with the Coalition at 44.5% (up 1%). If a Federal election had been held in late February, the ALP would have won easily.

Amongst the minor parties, support for the Greens was 6.5% (up 1%), Australian Democrats 2% (down 0.5%), One Nation 1.5% (unchanged) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 4% (down 0.5%).

Importantly, the proportion of electors who think that the ALP will win the next election (42%) is now almost the same as the proportion who believe the Coalition will win (43%). This is the first time that there hasn't been a clear majority of electors thinking that the Coalition would win.

During the polling period:

• Australia and the United States signed off on the historical Free Trade Agreement (subject to approval by the Australian Parliament and the US Congress). Not surprisingly there was argument from some sectors about the benefits of the Agreement.
• Opposition Leader Mark Latham announced that a Labor Government would close down superannuation schemes for new Federal MPs, judges and the Governor-General. He said that the superannuation schemes were well outside the community standard and were a source of dissatisfaction amongst the public. In a surprise decision, a few days later the Prime Minister followed Mr Latham's lead and said that the Coalition would bring new politicians' superannuation entitlements into line with the community standard. Mr Howard said that the decision was necessary so that the issue did not become a distraction from important matters such as the Free Trade Agreement and National Security.
• In the inner-Sydney suburb of Redfern, a violent riot left 40 police injured as about 100 drunk and angry youths wreaked havoc. The violence was sparked by the death of a 17 year old boy who was impaled on a metal fence after falling from his bicycle.

Preferences of supporters of the Australian Democrats (ALP — 90% cf L-NP — 10%), The Greens (ALP — 84.5% cf L-NP — 15.5%), One Nation (ALP — 56% cf L-NP — 44%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates (ALP — 55.5% cf L-NP — 44.5%) favoured the Opposition.

This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of February 14/15 & February 21/22, 2004, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,049 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.

For further information:
Until noon, Saturday February 28: Norman Woodcock: Office: (03) 9224 5236 Mobile: 13 274 679
From noon, Saturday February 28: Gary Morgan: Office: (03) 9224 5213 Mobile: 0411 129 094
Home: (03) 9419 3242

VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

PRIMARY VOTE	L-NP	ALP	Aust. Dem. #	The Greens	One Nation #	Ind./ Others
Election March 2, 1996	47.3 (8.6)	38.8	6.8	1.7	N/A	5.4
Election October 3, 1998 1	39.5 (5.3)	40.1	5.1	2.1	8.5	4.7
Election November 10, 2001	43 (5.6)	37.8	5.4	4.4	4.3	5.1
MORGAN POLL 2003
December 13/14 & December 20/21	42 (2.5)	42.5	2.5	7	2.5	3.5
MORGAN POLL 2004
January 3/4 & January 10/11	40 (2)	45	1.5	7.5	2	4
January 17/18 & January 24/25	39 (3)	44	2.5	8	2	4.5
January 31/ February 1 & February 7/8	38 (3)	48	2.5	5.5	1.5	4.5
February 14/15 & February 21/22	40.5 (3)	45.5	2	6.5	1.5	4
Note: National Party results are in brackets # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution 1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE
	L-NP	ALP
Election March 2, 1996	53.6	46.4
Election October 3, 1998 1	49	51
Election November 10, 2001	51	49
MORGAN POLL 2003
December 13/14 & December 20/21	46	54
MORGAN POLL 2004
January 3/4 & January 10/11	44.5	55.5
January 17/18 & January 24/25	45	55
January 31/ February 1 & February 7/8	43.5	56.5
February 14/15 & February 21/22	44.5	55.5
Note: National Party results are in brackets # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution 1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES
	January 3/4 & January 10/11		January 17/18 & January 24/25		Jan 31/ Feb 1 & February 7/8		February 14/15 & February 21/22
MORGAN POLL	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP
Australian Democrats #	19.5	80.5	31	69	39	61	10	90
The Greens	10.5	89.5	24.5	75.5	19	81	15.5	84.5
One Nation #	63	37	55	45	54	46	44	56
Independent/ Other	49	51	39.5	60.5	57.5	42.5	44.5	55.5
# Sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution

Sample: 2,049 electors interviewed face-to-face on February 14/15 & 21/22, 2004.

5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.

Finding No. 3715 is taken from Computer Report No. 1933

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the
ONLY Australian or New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand
has this qualification.

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