Home |  site-map |  indonesia |  indonesian-single-source-articles |  asteroid-user-registration |

Roy Morgan OZ Panel Login  |  Mail Diary Panel Login |   careers |  contact-us |  state-of-the-nation-webcast |

 Search:  Entire Site Polls Press Releases  

In late February/early March, primary support for the ALP increased slightly to 46% (up 0.5%) while support for the Government fell 1.5% to 39%. On a two-party preferred basis, support for both Parties remained unchanged, with the ALP at 55.5% and the Coalition at 44.5%. If a Federal election had been held in late February/early March, the ALP would have won easily the latest Morgan Poll finds.

Amongst the minor parties, support for the Greens was 7.5% (up 1%), Australian Democrats 2.5% (up 0.5%), One Nation 1.5% (unchanged) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 3.5% (down 0.5%).

Gary Morgan says,

"Since Mark Latham was elected in early December, all Morgan Polls have shown the ALP would have won easily".

During the polling period:

• The Federal Government released a document detailing the specifics of the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Australia and America. The ALP and the minor parties claimed the fine print of the agreement would undermine Australia's subsidised drug scheme and result in an even worse deal for farmers, but said they would wait for the outcome of a Senate inquiry, due to report in about four months, before making final decisions. Concerns in relation to the FTA include:

  • the agreement contains clauses which give America the ability to reimpose tariffs on Australian beef and some horticultural products if US prices fall significantly below average levels

  • the agreement appears to give drug companies the power to challenge the price of their products on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme, which could push up the price of drugs and cause a blow-out in the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme, which already costs taxpayers more than $5 billion a year. The agreement could also delay the arrival of cheap generic drugs onto the market, encouraging direct advertising of prescription drugs to consumers.

  • the local content regulations applying to new media such as pay TV and multi-channelling are set so low that the Australian film and television industry fears for the future of Australian products in these areas

• A Government-dominated parliamentary committee found that the case made by the Howard Government for war against Iraq was not fully supported by advice from its own intelligence agencies, finding pre-war presentations by the Prime Minister and his ministers were more strongly worded than most of the judgements by Australian intelligence experts on the risk posed by Iraq, but did not doctor - or "sex up"- reports on the threat posed by Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction.

• Following a backbench revolt, the Howard Government announced that disabled war veterans would receive more generous pensions after Coalition MPs and Senators approved an extra $267 million benefits package. Under the deal, pensions for totally and permanently incapacitated veterans will rise in line with either average weekly male earnings, or inflation, whichever is the highest.

• Andrew Wilkie, former intelligence analyst for the Office of National Assessments, who quit last year in opposition to the War in Iraq, was named as the Greens' candidate for John Howard's Sydney seat of Bennelong.

• Mr Howard announced that cash-strapped sugar cane farmers would receive income support while the Federal Government considers a wider assistance package for the sugar industry, saying eligible farmers would receive an allowance equivalent to the dole for the next 12 months, and that the Government would also spend $5.6 million on business planning support.
  

Preferences of supporters of the Greens (ALP - 76% cf L-NP - 24%), the Australian Democrats (ALP - 74% cf L-NP - 26%), and Other Parties and Independent Candidates (ALP - 52% cf L-NP - 48%) favoured the Opposition. Preferences of supporters of One Nation (L-NP - 53.5% cf ALP - 46.5) favoured the Government.

This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of February 28/29 & March 6/7, 2004, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,922 electors. Electors were asked: "If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?" Of all electors surveyed, 6.5% (up 1.5%) did not name a party.

For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office: (03) 9224 5213 Mobile: 0411 129 094 Home: (03) 9419 3242

VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

PRIMARY VOTE	L-NP	ALP	Aust. Dem. #	The Greens	One Nation #	Ind./ Others
Election March 2, 1996	47.3 (8.6)	38.8	6.8	1.7	N/A	5.4
Election October 3, 1998 1	39.5 (5.3)	40.1	5.1	2.1	8.5	4.7
Election November 10, 2001	43 (5.6)	37.8	5.4	4.4	4.3	5.1
MORGAN POLL 2003
December 6/7	41.5(2.5)	41	2.5	6	3	6
December 13/14 & December 20/21	42 (2.5)	42.5	2.5	7	2.5	3.5
MORGAN POLL 2004
January 3/4 & January 10/11	40(2)	45	1.5	7.5	2	4
January 17/18 & January 24/25	39 (3)	44	2.5	8	2	4.5
January 31/ February 1 & February 7/8	38 (3)	48	2.5	5.5	1.5	4.5
February 14/15 & February 21/22	40.5 (3)	45.5	2	6.5	1.5	4
February 28/29 & March 6/7, 2004	39(3)	46	2.5	7.5	1.5	3.5
Note: National Party results are in brackets # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution 1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE
	L-NP	ALP
Election March 2, 1996	53.6	46.4
Election October 3, 1998 1	49	51
Election November 10, 2001	51	49
MORGAN POLL 2003
December 6/7	47.5	52.5
December 13/14 & December 20/21	46	54
MORGAN POLL 2004
January 3/4 & January 10/11	44.5	55.5
January 17/18 & January 24/25	45	55
January 31/ February 1 & February 7/8	43.5	56.5
February 14/15 & February 21/22	44.5	55.5
February 28/29 & March 6/7, 2004	44.5	55.5
Note: National Party results are in brackets # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution 1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES
	January 17/18 & January 24/25		Jan 31/ Feb 1 & February 7/8		February 14/15 & February 21/22		February 28/29 & March 6/7, 2004
MORGAN POLL	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP
Australian Democrats #	31	69	39	61	10	90	26	74
The Greens	24.5	75.5	19	81	15.5	84.5	25	75
One Nation #	55	45	54	46	44	56	53.5	46.5
Independent/ Other	39.5	60.5	57.5	42.5	44.5	55.5	48	52
# Sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution

Sample: 1,922 electors interviewed face-to-face on February 28/29 & March 6/7, 2004.

6.5% (up 1.5%) did not name a party.

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

Finding No. 3721 is taken from Computer Report No. 1939

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the
ONLY Australian or New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand
has this qualification.

Accuracy of the Morgan Poll

Gary Morgan says:

"Before the November 10, 2001 Federal Election the Morgan Poll, conducted by 'face-to-face' interviewing the weekend before the election, showed the ALP well in front. However on Election Day the Morgan Poll carried out a further 'face-to-face' survey that confirmed a swing to the L-NP in the last week of the election giving the L-NP a sound victory. During the last few days before the Federal Election, media coverage concentrated on the refugee boat people, people being killed when a boat was set alight and debate over whether or not children were thrown overboard. These events made 'border protection' and the refugee problem main election issues along with fears over national security due to the War on Terrorism, following the September 11 terrorist attacks."

November 10, 2001 Election Day poll: Finding No 3476

The Morgan Polls conducted prior to the Aston By-Election, the Ryan By-Election and the South Australian State election (all conducted 2-3 days before these elections by telephone interviewing) resulted in accurate predictions. See www.roymorgan.com for complete Morgan Poll details.

Aston Bi-Election July 14, 2001: Finding No 3422

Ryan Bi-Election March 17, 2001: Finding No 3392

South Australian State Election February 9, 2002: Finding No 3503

The following shows that the Morgan Poll was accurate in predicting the close South Australian election.

# - Figures provided by the South Australian Electoral Commission.

Victorian State Election November 30, 2002: Finding No 3583

© 2007 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
privacy-statement