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In late March, primary support for the ALP dropped slightly to 45.5% (down 0.5%) while support for the Government rose 0.5% to 39.5%. On a two-party preferred basis, support for both Parties has remained unchanged since the beginning of February 2004, with the ALP 55.5% and the Coalition 44.5%. If a Federal election had been held in late March, the ALP would have won easily the latest Morgan Poll finds.

In late March more electors think the ALP will win the next Federal election — 43.5%, than the L-NP 41.5%; this is a significant shift from when Mark Latham was elected in early December — with only 21% thinking the ALP would win the next election compared with 60% the L-NP.

Amongst the minor parties, support for the Greens was 7% (down 0.5%), Australian Democrats 2% (down 0.5%), One Nation 1% (down 0.5%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 5% (up 1.5%).

During the polling period:

• The Spanish election resulted in an upset; with the “underdog” Socialist Party winning after simultaneous explosions killed 190 and injured more than 1,800 others on peak hour trains in Madrid just before the election. Initially the Spanish Government blamed ETA for the bombings, however, Al-Qaeda claimed responsibility. This caused an electoral backlash with a new Socialist Government being unexpectedly elected. The new Government’s promise of bringing Spanish troops home from Iraq caused a redefinition of the “Coalition of the willing.”

• Health Minister Tony Abbott brokered a deal with four Independent Senators guaranteeing legislation for Medicare Plus through the Senate. This involved an extra $427 million in extra spending particularly focused on the Independent Senators’ states.

• Prime Minister John Howard tried to stop the perception of being on the “back-foot” after some polls released for the first time with the Coalition behind the ALP. In reality the L-NP has been on the “back-foot” since December when the face-to-face Morgan Poll showed the ALP in front — See Morgan Poll Finding Number 3718.

• The L-NP announced new education funding that was primarily for Catholic Schools and Private Schools. In addition the L-NP supported changing the sexual discrimination laws to allow Catholic Schools to provide scholarships for male teachers.

Preferences of supporters of the Greens (ALP — 83.5% cf L-NP — 15.5%), the Australian Democrats (ALP — 57% cf L-NP — 43%), One Nation (ALP — 55% cf L-NP — 45%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates (ALP — 59.5% cf L-NP — 40.5%) favoured the Opposition.

This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of March 13/16 & March 20/21, 2004, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,193 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 5% (down 1.5%) did not name a party.

Think will win

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who do you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

For further information:

Gary Morgan: Office: (03) 9224 5213 Mobile: 0411 129 094 Home: (03) 9419 3242

VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

PRIMARY VOTE	L-NP	ALP	Aust. Dem. #	The Greens	One Nation #	Ind./ Others
Election March 2, 1996	47.3 (8.6)	38.8	6.8	1.7	N/A	5.4
Election October 3, 1998 1	39.5 (5.3)	40.1	5.1	2.1	8.5	4.7
Election November 10, 2001	43 (5.6)	37.8	5.4	4.4	4.3	5.1
MORGAN POLL 2004
January 3/4 & January 10/11	40(2)	45	1.5	7.5	2	4
January 17/18 & January 24/25	39 (3)	44	2.5	8	2	4.5
January 31/ February 1 & February 7/8	38 (3)	48	2.5	5.5	1.5	4.5
February 14/15 & February 21/22	40.5 (3)	45.5	2	6.5	1.5	4
February 28/29 & March 6/7	39(3)	46	2.5	7.5	1.5	3.5
March 13/14 & March 20/21	39.5(2)	45.5	2	7	1	5
Note: National Party results are in brackets # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution 1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE
	L-NP	ALP
Election March 2, 1996	53.6	46.4
Election October 3, 1998 1	49	51
Election November 10, 2001	51	49
MORGAN POLL 2004
January 3/4 & January 10/11	44.5	55.5
January 17/18 & January 24/25	45	55
January 31/ February 1 & February 7/8	43.5	56.5
February 14/15 & February 21/22	44.5	55.5
February 28/29 & March 6/7	44.5	55.5
March 13/14 & March 20/21	44.5	55.5
Note: National Party results are in brackets # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution 1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES
	Jan 31/ Feb 1 & February 7/8		February 14/15 & February 21/22		February 28/29 & March 6/7, 2004		March 13/14 & March 20/21, 2004
MORGAN POLL	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP
Australian Democrats #	39	61	10	90	26	74	43	57
The Greens	19	81	15.5	84.5	25	75	16.5	83.5
One Nation #	54	46	44	56	53.5	46.5	45	55
Independent/ Other	57.5	42.5	44.5	55.5	48	52	40.5	59.5
# Sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution

Sample: 2,193 electors interviewed face-to-face on March 13/14 & March 20/21, 2004 .

5% (down 1.5%) did not name a party.

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

Finding No. 3722 is taken from Computer Report No. 1940

Accuracy of the Morgan Poll

Gary Morgan says:

"Before the November 10, 2001 Federal Election the Morgan Poll, conducted by 'face-to-face' interviewing the weekend before the election, showed the ALP well in front. However on Election Day the Morgan Poll carried out a further 'face-to-face' survey that confirmed a swing to the L-NP in the last week of the election giving the L-NP a sound victory. During the last few days before the Federal Election, media coverage concentrated on the refugee boat people, people being killed when a boat was set alight and debate over whether or not children were thrown overboard. These events made 'border protection' and the refugee problem main election issues along with fears over national security due to the War on Terrorism, following the September 11 terrorist attacks."

November 10, 2001 Election Day poll: Finding No 3476

The Morgan Polls conducted prior to the Aston By-Election, the Ryan By-Election and the South Australian State election (all conducted 2-3 days before these elections by telephone interviewing) resulted in accurate predictions. See www.roymorgan.com for complete Morgan Poll details.

Aston Bi-Election July 14, 2001: Finding No 3422

Ryan Bi-Election March 17, 2001: Finding No 3392

South Australian State Election February 9, 2002: Finding No 3503

The following shows that the Morgan Poll was accurate in predicting the close South Australian election.

# - Figures provided by the South Australian Electoral Commission.

Victorian State Election November 30, 2002: Finding No 3583

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