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When Prime Minister Mr John Howard turns 65 on July 26 this year, nearly two thirds (63%) of Australian electors think he should continue as Prime Minister. This is 3% lower than in June 2003. 31% think he should retire and 6% can’t say.

Mr Howard is also the clear favourite as Coalition leader at the next Federal election with the support of 46% of the electorate, followed by Mr Costello at 14%, and Mr Downer and Mr Turnbull each with 6% support.

These are the main findings of a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted last week with an Australia-wide cross-section of 546 electors.

PREFERRED COALITION LEADER

Electors were first asked: “If you were a Liberal or National party voter, and were helping choose the Coalition leader for the next federal election, who would you prefer? And who would be your second preference?”

Of all electors, 46% preferred Mr Howard, followed by Mr Costello (14%), Mr Downer and Mr Turnbull at 6%, Mr Ruddock at 5%, Mr Abbott at 3%. 2% said someone else and 18% couldn’t say.

Table 1. Preference for Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election.

# Results from sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.

Analysis by voting intention showed most support for the Prime Minister came from L-NP supporters (70%) while Mr Costello had most support from The Greens (19%) and the ALP (18%). Republican Mr Turnbull who had only 1% support from L-NP supporters, had 13% support from the Australian Democrats, 11% from The Greens and 10% from the ALP.

More men (49%) than women (44%) preferred Mr Howard as the L-NP leader for the next Federal election.

More rural and regional electors (52%) than city electors (43%) preferred Mr Howard. More city electors (17%) than rural and regional electors (10%) preferred Mr Costello.

PREFERENCE FOR COALITION LEADER OTHER THAN MR HOWARD

An analysis of second preferences of those who preferred Mr Howard showed that if Mr Howard were not an option, Mr Costello would clearly be the preferred leader of the L-NP. The Deputy Leader is favored by 33% (down from 41% in June 2003), followed by Mr Downer (14%), Mr Ruddock (11%), Mr Abbott (8%) and Mr Turnbull (8%).

Mr Costello had strong support from the L-NP (43%) and the ALP (30%). Mr Downer had 16% support from the L-NP and 13% from the ALP.

Table 2. Preference for Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election (excluding Mr. Howard).

# Results from sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.

More men (35%) than women (30%) preferred Mr Costello as the L-NP leader for the next Federal Election if Mr Howard was not the leader.

SHOULD MR HOWARD RETIRE ON HIS 65 TH BIRTHDAY OR CONTINUE?

Electors were told “Mr Howard turns 65 on July 26 this year” then asked: “In your opinion should Mr Howard retire on his 65 th birthday or continue to be Prime Minister?”

The majority of electors (63%, down 3% since June 2003) said Mr Howard should continue, 31% (up 2%) said he should retire and 6% couldn’t say.

In May 1965, a Gallup Poll asked a similar question with regards to the then Prime Minister Sir Robert Menzies who was aged 71. Then only 43% of electors thought he should continue as Prime Minister, while 53% thought he should retire.

Table 3. Should the Prime Minister Continue or Retire?

Table 4 below shows analysis by Voting Intention. Among supporters of the L-NP the vast majority (81%) think Mr Howard should continue, with only 14% saying he should retire and 5% unable to say. A majority of supporters of all other parties except The Greens think Mr Howard should continue. Of those supporting The Greens 50% say Mr Howard should retire when he turns 65 and 41% say that he should continue.

Table 4. Should the Prime Minister continue or retire?

# Results from sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.

More city electors (35%) think the Prime Minister should retire at 65 than rural and regional electors (24%).

Owners of small business (21%) are the most likely to say Mr Howard should not retire than electors with other occupations.

For further information:

Michele Levine Office: (03) 92245 5215 Mobile: 0411 129 093 Home: (03) 9817-3066

Gary Morgan Mobile: 0411 129 094

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