Home |  site-map |  indonesia |  indonesian-single-source-articles |  asteroid-user-registration |

Roy Morgan OZ Panel Login  |  Mail Diary Panel Login |   careers |  contact-us |  state-of-the-nation-webcast |

In early April, primary support for the ALP dropped 2% to 43.5% while support for the Government was steady at 39.5%. On a two-party preferred basis, support for both Parties has remained fairly steady since the beginning of January 2004, with the ALP 55% (down 0.5%) and the Coalition 45% (up 0.5%). If a Federal election had been held in early April, the ALP would have won easily the latest Morgan Poll finds.

In early April more electors think the ALP will win the next Federal election - 45.5%, than the L-NP 43.5%; this is a significant difference from when Mark Latham was elected as Leader of the Opposition in early December - with only 21% thinking the ALP would win the next election compared with 60% the L-NP.

Amongst the minor parties, support for the Greens was 9.5% (up 2.5%), Australian Democrats 2% (unchanged), One Nation 1.5% (up 0.5%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 4% (down 1%).

During the polling period:

• Opposition Leader Mr Latham promised to bring the Australian troops home from Iraq by Christmas. The Government attacked Mr Latham over his pledge. A special Morgan Poll conducted last week showed 58% of electors agreed with the Prime Minister that our troops should stay in Iraq until the job is done while 38% agreed with Mr Latham that they should return by Christmas — see Morgan Poll Finding Number 3726. Intelligence Chief Mr Ron Bonighton denied expressing scepticism about Iraqi weapons of mass destruction or that he said so to Mr Latham. Mr Howard moved to force Mr Latham to withdraw his claim he received intelligence briefings on Iraq.

• The Opposition Leader said he planned to abolish the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Commission (ATSIC). Mr Latham announced Labor would put in place an elected advisory body and stronger regional councils instead of ATSIC. Indigenous Affairs Minister Amanda Vanstone said Labor had appropriated much of the Coalition’s policy.

• Labor announced its version of paid maternity leave at a cost of $2.2bn giving about 90% of mothers a payment on giving birth. Mr Latham said the means tested payment would be $3000 for every baby and rising to $5380 by 2010, for all but the highest-income families. This compares with the Federal Government’s scheme that gives couples a tax break of up to $2500 a year over five years after the birth of their first child.

Preferences of supporters of the Australian Democrats (ALP - 90% cf L-NP - 10%) and The Greens (ALP 82% cf 18%) favored the Opposition while supporters of One Nation (L-NP - 54% cf ALP - 46%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates (L-NP - 61% cf ALP - 39%) favored the Government.

This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of March 27/28 & April 3/4, 2004, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,243 electors. Electors were asked: "If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?" Of all electors surveyed, 4.5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.

Think will win

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who do you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

For further information:

 Michele Levine: Office: (03) 9224 5215 Mobile: 0411 129 093 Home: (03) 9817 3066

VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

PRIMARY VOTE	L-NP	ALP	Aust. Dem. #	The Greens	One Nation #	Ind./ Others
Election March 2, 1996	47.3 (8.6)	38.8	6.8	1.7	N/A	5.4
Election October 3, 1998 1	39.5 (5.3)	40.1	5.1	2.1	8.5	4.7
Election November 10, 2001	43 (5.6)	37.8	5.4	4.4	4.3	5.1
MORGAN POLL 2004
January 3/4 & January 10/11	40(2)	45	1.5	7.5	2	4
January 17/18 & January 24/25	39 (3)	44	2.5	8	2	4.5
January 31/ February 1 & February 7/8	38 (3)	48	2.5	5.5	1.5	4.5
February 14/15 & February 21/22	40.5 (3)	45.5	2	6.5	1.5	4
February 28/29 & March 6/7	39(3)	46	2.5	7.5	1.5	3.5
March 13/14 & March 20/21	39.5(2)	45.5	2	7	1	5
March 27/28 & April 3/4	39.5(3.5)	43.5	2.0	9.5	1.5	4
Note: National Party results are in brackets # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution 1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE
	L-NP	ALP
Election March 2, 1996	53.6	46.4
Election October 3, 1998 1	49	51
Election November 10, 2001	51	49
MORGAN POLL 2004
January 3/4 & January 10/11	44.5	55.5
January 17/18 & January 24/25	45	55
January 31/ February 1 & February 7/8	43.5	56.5
February 14/15 & February 21/22	44.5	55.5
February 28/29 & March 6/7	44.5	55.5
March 13/14 & March 20/21	44.5	55.5
March 27/28 & April 3/4	45	55
NP “two-Party” estimate includes those who didn’t vote ALP or give their preference to the ALP. If the Newcastle two-Party preferred vote for the October 3, 1998 election is excluded the Australia-wide “two-Party” preferred vote is L-NP - 49.0% cf ALP - 51.0%.

TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES
	February 14/15 & February 21/22		February 28/29 & March 6/7, 2004		March 13/14 & March 20/21, 2004		March 27/28 & April 3/4, 2004
MORGAN POLL	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP
Australian Democrats #	10	90	26	74	43	57	10	90
The Greens	15.5	84.5	25	75	16.5	83.5	18	82
One Nation #	44	56	53.5	46.5	45	55	54	46
Independent/ Other	44.5	55.5	48	52	40.5	59.5	61	39
# Sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
Sample: 1,243 electors interviewed face-to-face on March 27/28 & April 3/4 .

4.5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

Finding No. 3729 is taken from Computer Report No. 1947

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the
ONLY Australian or New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand
has this qualification.

Accuracy of the Morgan Poll

Gary Morgan says:

"Before the November 10, 2001 Federal Election the Morgan Poll, conducted by 'face-to-face' interviewing the weekend before the election, showed the ALP well in front. However on Election Day the Morgan Poll carried out a further 'face-to-face' survey that confirmed a swing to the L-NP in the last week of the election giving the L-NP a sound victory. During the last few days before the Federal Election, media coverage concentrated on the refugee boat people, people being killed when a boat was set alight and debate over whether or not children were thrown overboard. These events made 'border protection' and the refugee problem main election issues along with fears over national security due to the War on Terrorism, following the September 11 terrorist attacks."

November 10, 2001 Election Day poll: Finding No 3476

The Morgan Polls conducted prior to the Aston By-Election, the Ryan By-Election and the South Australian State election (all conducted 2-3 days before these elections by telephone interviewing) resulted in accurate predictions. See www.roymorgan.com for complete Morgan Poll details.

Aston Bi-Election July 14, 2001: Finding No 3422

Ryan Bi-Election March 17, 2001: Finding No 3392

South Australian State Election February 9, 2002: Finding No 3503

The following shows that the Morgan Poll was accurate in predicting the close South Australian election.

# - Figures provided by the South Australian Electoral Commission.

Victorian State Election November 30, 2002: Finding No 3583

© 2007 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
privacy-statement