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In mid April, both major parties increased by 1.5%, the ALP to 45% and L-NP to 41%. On a two-party preferred basis, support for both Parties has remained fairly steady since the beginning of January 2004, with the ALP now at 54.5% (down 0.5%) and the Coalition 45.5% (up 0.5%). If a Federal election had been held in mid April, the ALP would have won easily the latest Morgan Poll finds.

Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was 7.5% (down 2%), Australian Democrats 2% (unchanged), One Nation 1.5% (unchanged) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 3% (down 1%).

In mid April, on the important question of who the electorate thinks will win the next election, the L-NP once again moved ahead of the ALP. More electors now think the L-NP will win the next Federal election - 48.5% (up 5%), than the ALP 38% (down 7.5%). This is still a significant difference from when Mark Latham was elected as Leader of the Opposition in early December - when only 24% thought the ALP would win the next election compared with 60% the L-NP.

During the polling period:

• Militant groups held civilian hostages from Coalition countries, threatening to kill them if troops and other personnel are not withdrawn. Fighting continued in Iraq with many troops and civilians killed. US President George W. Bush authorised US forces to use force to maintain order in Iraq but insisted the United States was determined to hand over power on June 30.

• Opposition Leader Mark Latham criticised the Howard Government for what he said was its unequal and compliant role in the American alliance. The Bush Administration hit back at Mr Latham saying his attack was “neither well-informed nor well-based”.

• News Corporation chairman and chief executive Mr Rupert Murdoch announced his company would relocate from Australia to the United States.

• The Government announced plans to abolish ATSIC immediately.

Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research in which respondents gave their reason for voting was conducted on April 10/11, 2004.

ALP supporters commented with approval on Mark Latham, as well as their dislike of Prime Minister John Howard:

“It’s time for a change.”
“I disapprove of Australians in Iraq.”
“I am not interested in tax cuts. I prefer money to be spent on schools and hospitals”
“I am impressed by Latham and unimpressed with Howard.”
“I like their policies.”
“I like Mark Latham. He has got a bit of go in him.”
“I’m sick of John Howard/ I don’t like John Howard.”

Liberal supporters like John Howard’s leadership and say the Liberal party policies are better than Labors policies. They are also uncertain what Mark Latham can achieve for the Country:

“They are more stable and make the right decisions for the country.”
“Liberal Party are strong economic managers.”
“Because of the leader/ The leader has got good values”
“Labor has got themselves in a mess.”
“I think they will do a better job than Labor”
“I believe Mark Latham lacks experience and is a bit headstrong.”
“Proven track record.”

Preferences of supporters of the The Greens (ALP - 79.5% cf L-NP - 20.5%) and The Australian Democrats (ALP 66% cf 34%) and Other Parties and Independents (ALP (59.5% cf L-NP 40.5%) favored the Opposition while supporters of One Nation (L-NP - 77% cf ALP - 23%) favored the Government.

This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of April 10/11 & April 17/18, 2004, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1898 electors. Electors were asked: "If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?" Of all electors surveyed, 5.5% (up 1%) did not name a party.

Think will win

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who do you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

For further information:

VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

PRIMARY VOTE	L-NP	ALP	Aust. Dem. #	The Greens	One Nation #	Ind./ Others
Election March 2, 1996	47.3 (8.6)	38.8	6.8	1.7	N/A	5.4
Election October 3, 1998 1	39.5 (5.3)	40.1	5.1	2.1	8.5	4.7
Election November 10, 2001	43 (5.6)	37.8	5.4	4.4	4.3	5.1
MORGAN POLL 2004
January 3/4 & January 10/11	40(2)	45	1.5	7.5	2	4
January 17/18 & January 24/25	39 (3)	44	2.5	8	2	4.5
January 31/ February 1 & February 7/8	38 (3)	48	2.5	5.5	1.5	4.5
February 14/15 & February 21/22	40.5 (3)	45.5	2	6.5	1.5	4
February 28/29 & March 6/7	39(3)	46	2.5	7.5	1.5	3.5
March 13/14 & March 20/21	39.5(2)	45.5	2	7	1	5
March 27/28 & April 3/4	39.5(3.5)	43.5	2.0	9.5	1.5	4
April 10/11 & April 17/18	41(1.5)	45	2	7.5	1.5	3
Note: National Party results are in brackets # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution 1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE
	L-NP	ALP
Election March 2, 1996	53.6	46.4
Election October 3, 1998 1	49	51
Election November 10, 2001	51	49
MORGAN POLL 2004
January 3/4 & January 10/11	44.5	55.5
January 17/18 & January 24/25	45	55
January 31/ February 1 & February 7/8	43.5	56.5
February 14/15 & February 21/22	44.5	55.5
February 28/29 & March 6/7	44.5	55.5
March 13/14 & March 20/21	44.5	55.5
March 27/28 & April 3/4	45	55
April 10/11 & April 17/18	45.5	54.5
NP “two-Party” estimate includes those who didn’t vote ALP or give their preference to the ALP. If the Newcastle two-Party preferred vote for the October 3, 1998 election is excluded the Australia-wide “two-Party” preferred vote is L-NP - 49.0% cf ALP - 51.0%.

TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES
	February 28/29 & March 6/7, 2004		March 13/14 & March 20/21, 2004		March 27/28 & April 3/4, 2004		April 10/11 & April 17/18, 2004
MORGAN POLL	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP
Australian Democrats #	26	74	43	57	10	90	34	66
The Greens	25	75	16.5	83.5	18	82	20.5	79.5
One Nation #	53.5	46.5	45	55	54	46	77	23
Independent/ Other	48	52	40.5	59.5	61	39	40.5	59.5
# Sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
Sample: 1,898 electors interviewed face-to-face on April 10/11 & April 17/18

5.5% (up 1%) did not name a party.

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

Finding No. 3731 is taken from Computer Report No. 1948

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the
ONLY Australian or New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand
has this qualification.

Accuracy of the Morgan Poll

Gary Morgan says:

"Before the November 10, 2001 Federal Election the Morgan Poll, conducted by 'face-to-face' interviewing the weekend before the election, showed the ALP well in front. However on Election Day the Morgan Poll carried out a further 'face-to-face' survey that confirmed a swing to the L-NP in the last week of the election giving the L-NP a sound victory. During the last few days before the Federal Election, media coverage concentrated on the refugee boat people, people being killed when a boat was set alight and debate over whether or not children were thrown overboard. These events made 'border protection' and the refugee problem main election issues along with fears over national security due to the War on Terrorism, following the September 11 terrorist attacks."

November 10, 2001 Election Day poll: Finding No 3476

The Morgan Polls conducted prior to the Aston By-Election, the Ryan By-Election and the South Australian State election (all conducted 2-3 days before these elections by telephone interviewing) resulted in accurate predictions. See www.roymorgan.com for complete Morgan Poll details.

Aston Bi-Election July 14, 2001: Finding No 3422

Ryan Bi-Election March 17, 2001: Finding No 3392

South Australian State Election February 9, 2002: Finding No 3503

The following shows that the Morgan Poll was accurate in predicting the close South Australian election.

# - Figures provided by the South Australian Electoral Commission.

Victorian State Election November 30, 2002: Finding No 3583

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