Post-Budget Support for the ALP Increases
| Finding No. 3747 -
June 02, 2004 |
In late May, in the second face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted since the Federal Budget was announced, support for the ALP rose 4.5% to 45.5% whilst L-NP support was down 2.5% to 40%. On a two-party preferred basis, support for the ALP was up 2.5% to 55% while Coalition support was 45%. If a Federal election had been held in late May the ALP would have won easily, the latest Morgan Poll finds.
Among the minor parties, support for the Greens fell 1% to 7%, Australian Democrats were 3% (up 0.5%), One Nation 1% (down 1%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 3.5% (down 0.5%).
In late May, on the important question of who the electorate thinks will win the next election, the L-NP still leads the ALP by 3.5%, but the gap has narrowed. Now 44.5% (down 8%) think L-NP will win while 41% (up 6%) think the ALP will win (14.5% can’t say). This is back to the levels of January 2004.
During the polling period:
- Discussion continued about the implication of the Federal Budget, and conflicting polls on the electorate’s response to the Budget.
- Head of the Iraqi Governing Council, Abdul Zahra Othman Mohammad, was killed by a suicide car bomb outside the US coalition headquarters in Baghdad. At least eight other people were killed in the explosion.
- Mitsubishi Motors announced the closure of one of its factories in Adelaide. The engine plant will be closed while the long term future of the car assembly plant is still to be decided.
- Crude oil prices remained above $US41 a barrel in New York.
- The Federal Government announced proposed new laws that will ban gays from marriage and adopting children overseas. The Opposition announced it would not oppose the new legislation.
- President Bush pledged further US troops to help with the hand-over of power to the interim Government.
- It was revealed that South Australian Liberal MP Trish Draper took a male friend on a taxpayer funded $10,000 trip to Europe four years ago.
- Australian’s were advised against travelling to Indonesia as Australian and US Governments receive new information of possible terrorist activity in the region.
Gary Morgan says:
“This latest Morgan Poll makes sense. The telephone Morgan Poll immediately after the Federal Budget showed a strong shift to the L-NP. By the following weekend, the more stable fact-to-face Morgan Poll has shown the shift to the ALP has continued, and is now at 55%, 10 points ahead of the L-NP on a two-party preferred basis.”
Preferences of supporters of the Greens (ALP — 81.5% cf L-NP — 18.5%), the Australian Democrats (ALP - 79.5% cf L-NP - 20.5%) and One Nation (ALP — 51.5% cf L-NP — 48.5%) favoured the Opposition. Supporters of Other Parties and Independents (L-NP - 54% cf ALP - 46%) favoured the Coalition.
This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of May 22/23 and 29/30, 2004, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,353 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 5% (up 1%) did not name a party.
Think will win
Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who do you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"
|
L-NP |
ALP |
Can't Say |
|
% |
% |
% |
|
November 22/23, 2003 |
68 |
22 |
10 |
|
November 29/30, 2003 |
66 |
21 |
13 |
|
December 6/7, 2003 |
60 |
24 |
15 |
|
December 13/14 & December 20/21, 2003 |
57 |
29 |
14 |
|
January 3/4 & January 10/11, 2004 |
59 |
28 |
13 |
|
January 17/18 & January 24/25, 2004 |
55 |
32 |
13 |
|
January 31/ February 1 & February 7/8, 2004 |
51 |
36 |
13 |
|
February 14/15 & February 21/22, 2004 |
43 |
42 |
15 |
|
February 28/29 & March 6/7, 2004 |
45 |
40 |
15 |
|
March 13/14 & March 20/21, 2004 |
41.5 |
43.5 |
15 |
|
March 27/28 & April 3/4, 2004 |
43.5 |
45.5 |
11 |
| April 10/11 & April 17/18, 2004 |
48.5 |
38 |
13.5 |
|
April 24/25 & May 1/2, 2004 |
48.5 |
38.5 |
13 |
| May 15/16, 2004 |
52.5 |
35 |
12.5 |
| May 22/23 & May 29/30, 2004 |
44.5 |
41 |
14.5 |
For further information:
|
Gary Morgan: |
Office: (03) 9224 5213 |
Mobile: 0411 129 094 |
Home: (03) 9419 3242 |
|
Michele Levine: |
Office: (03) 9224 5215 |
Mobile: 0411 129 093 |
Home: (03) 9817 3066 |
VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
| PRIMARY VOTE |
L-NP |
ALP |
Aust.
Dem. # |
The
Greens |
One
Nation # |
Ind./
Others |
| Election March 2, 1996 |
47.3 (8.6) |
38.8 |
6.8 |
1.7 |
N/A |
5.4 |
| Election October 3, 1998 1 |
39.5 (5.3) |
40.1 |
5.1 |
2.1 |
8.5 |
4.7 |
| Election November 10, 2001 |
43 (5.6) |
37.8 |
5.4 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
5.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| MORGAN POLL 2004 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| January 3/4 & January 10/11 |
40(2) |
45 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
4 |
| January 17/18 & January 24/25 |
39 (3) |
44 |
2.5 |
8 |
2 |
4.5 |
| January 31/ February 1 & February 7/8 |
38 (3) |
48 |
2.5 |
5.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| February 14/15 & February 21/22 |
40.5 (3) |
45.5 |
2 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
| February 28/29 & March 6/7 |
39(3) |
46 |
2.5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
| March 13/14 & March 20/21 |
39.5(2) |
45.5 |
2 |
7 |
1 |
5 |
|
March 27/28 & April 3/4 |
39.5(3.5) |
43.5 |
2.0 |
9.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
| April 10/11 & April 17/18 |
41(1.5) |
45 |
2 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
3 |
|
April 24/25 & May 1/2, 2004 |
42(2.5) |
44 |
2 |
7 |
1 |
4 |
| May 15/16 |
42.5 |
41 |
2.5 |
8 |
2 |
4 |
| May 22/23 & May 29/30, 2004 |
40 (2.5) |
45.5 |
3 |
7 |
1 |
3.5 |
Note: National Party results are in brackets
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle. |
| TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE |
|
L-NP |
ALP |
| Election March 2, 1996 |
53.6 |
46.4 |
| Election October 3, 1998 1 |
49 |
51 |
| Election November 10, 2001 |
51 |
49 |
|
|
|
| MORGAN POLL 2004 |
|
|
| January 3/4 & January 10/11 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
| January 17/18 & January 24/25 |
45 |
55 |
| January 31/ February 1 & February 7/8 |
43.5 |
56.5 |
| February 14/15 & February 21/22 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
| February 28/29 & March 6/7 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
| March 13/14 & March 20/21 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
|
March 27/28 & April 3/4 |
45 |
55 |
| April 10/11 & April 17/18 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
|
April 24/25 & May 1/2, 2004 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
| May 15/16 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
| May 22/23 & May 29/30 |
45 |
55 |
|
NP “two-Party” estimate includes those who didn’t vote ALP or give their preference to the ALP. If the Newcastle two-Party preferred vote for the October 3, 1998 election is excluded the Australia-wide “two-Party” preferred vote is L-NP - 49.0% cf ALP - 51.0%. |
| TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES |
|
April 10/11
& April 17/18, 2004 |
April 24/25
& May 1/2,
2004 |
May 15/16,
2004 |
May 22/23
& May 29/30, 2004 |
| MORGAN POLL |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
| Australian Democrats # |
34 |
66 |
34.5 |
65.5 |
29.5 |
70.5 |
20.5 |
79.5 |
| The Greens |
20.5 |
79.5 |
12 |
88 |
18 |
82 |
18.5 |
81.5 |
| One Nation # |
77 |
23 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
| Independent/ Other |
40.5 |
59.5 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
28.5 |
71.5 |
54 |
46 |
| # Sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution |
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
Sample: 2,353 electors interviewed face-to-face on May 22/23 & May 29/30, 2004
5% (up 1%) did not name a party.
View Federal Voting Intention Trend
“2004 Federal Budget Improves Mr Howard’s Image And L-NP Support”/news/polls/2004/3740/
“Support for 2004 Federal Budget Declines Mr Howard’s Image Slips”/news/polls/2004/3743/
Finding No. 3747 is taken from Computer Report No. 1963 |
